Saturdays play-in video game (2:30 p.m. ET, ABC) in between the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies is the rare NBA win-or-go-home contest, at least for the Grizzlies. If Memphis wins on Saturday, the rematch is Sunday (4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), with the winner advancing to the NBA playoffs to face the Los Angeles Lakers.
Can the Grizzlies win in single elimination to force a 2nd video game? What surprises might be coming our method?
Our specialists make their forecasts and share what theyll be looking for on Saturday.
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1. For the Blazers, what will you be watching most closely?
Royce Young: Im not supposed to state Damian Lillard, since thats excessive of a cliché, but how could it truly be anything else? So lets make it particular at least: How deep will the Grizzlies be with their pickup points on Lillard? Beyond half court? Other complimentary throw line? The lobby at Yacht Club?
Tim MacMahon: How is CJ McCollum moving? Im guessing the Grizzlies will strongly double-team Lillard, as the Nets did, and essentially dare McCollum and the rest of the Blazers to beat them. McCollum had 33 points on 14-of-21 shooting in Portlands bubble-opening win over Memphis, but he hasnt been as reliable since supposedly suffering a nondisplaced fracture in his lower back that night (18 PPG on 39% shooting in the past 7 video games).2 Related
Chris Herring: How will McCollum, with a transverse fracture in his back, carry out? He had the ability to navigate to the basket in the must-win video game with Brooklyn. However he has made only 18% (3-of-17) of his shots from deep the previous three games– down from 45% (14-of-31) in the 4 video games before that.
Kevin Pelton: Whether fatigue starts to embed in at some time. Of the 6 top gamers in minutes throughout seeding games, four are Blazers (Lillard first, McCollum second, Carmelo Anthony fourth and Gary Trent Jr. sixth). They seemed to be running low on gas in the fourth quarter Thursday, when the Nets grabbed 54% of offered offending rebounds. Will that be a concern with a fairly quick turn-around?
Tim Bontemps: The teams energy level. The Blazers have actually used up a heap just to get this point, consisting of playing Lillard the entire 2nd half in Thursdays win over Brooklyn. Does Portland have enough to close this out on Saturday and get a critical 72 hours of rest prior to playing the Lakers?
Will the young legs of Ja Morant and the Grizzlies enable them to surpass the 8-seeded Trail Blazers? Joe Murphy/NBAE/Getty Images2. For the Grizzlies, what will you be seeing most closely?
Young: The very first eight minutes for Memphis will reveal a lot. Will the young Grizzlies be shaken under the pressure of the scenario, or will ignorance be bliss and they holler out of the gates? Ja Morant has already gone far for himself in valiancy, and theres no reason to think hell be timid at tipoff.
MacMahon: Likewise, Im delighted to see how Rookie of the Year lock Morant reacts to the difficulty. Excellent point player have a competitive charm. Lillard characterizes that with his history of playoff walk-offs and his historical surface to this unusual regular season to put Portland in this position. Morant appears to be cut from that type of mold, and this is a substantial test for an immense skill who simply celebrated his 21st birthday.
Bontemps: Can Memphis struck shots? For the Grizzlies to have a chance to beat the Blazers, they will require to make 3-pointers, and they have a lot of suspect shooters from deep. To pull this off– particularly without Jaren Jackson Jr.– they will need people to play over their heads.
Herring: Can they take adequate benefit of Portlands porous defense to beat the Blazers two times? If anyones approximately that task, its rookie Brandon Clarke, who had a season-high 27-point revealing versus Portland previously in the year. Two of his 4 best scoring outputs this season came versus the Blazers as he made 20-of-27 shots against Portland.
Pelton: How they decide to protect Lillard. There are no good choices at this point. Catching Lillard near half court indicates quiting routine 4-on-3 opportunities to the other Blazers, however letting Lillard get off any shot at this point is a dangerous proposition.
3. Whats the potential Saturday surprise we do not see coming?
Herring: You never know what youll get from Carmelo Anthony. After his miserable 1-for-15 effort vs. Memphis on Feb. 12, he scored 21 points on 7-of-10 shooting in a triumph over the Grizzlies 2 weeks ago.
Bontemps: Carmelo has a throwback efficiency and drops 30 points to get one more crack at his longtime buddy LeBron James in a playoff series.
Pelton: Mario Hezonja is a wild card. He provided Portland a big lift in the seeding opener vs. Memphis, scoring 8 points and including 4 rebounds, 3 takes and 2 helps in 23 minutes. Hezonja later on went through a two-game stretch of DNP-CDs, a sign of how commonly his function and performance can vary.
MacMahon: Will Grizzlies coach Taylor Jenkins stick to center Jonas Valanciunas or go little? The big man is coming off a beast performance, taping his first triple-double with 26 points, 19 rebounds and 12 assists in the win over the Bucks. However Portland provides matchup problems for a traditional huge who lacks movement. Valanciunas played only 14 minutes in Memphis current OT loss to the Blazers, when he entered into foul trouble. He scored 16 points on 4-of-4 shooting, however the Grizzlies were outscored by 11 in those 14 minutes.
Young: Pull out the box-and-one, Grizzlies! Unlikely, considering the other weapons the Blazers have, however that could be the foundation of a strategy: try to see what other Blazer can beat you. With McCollum not 100% and some inconsistency elsewhere, doubling and bracketing Lillard everywhere could indicate big shots are in the hands of Anthony and Gary Trent Jr
.
Young: Damian Lillard feels unavoidable today. It could certainly take two video games with the friskiness of the Grizzlies, however eventually, Lillard finds a method to come through. Its what he does.
MacMahon: Ill choose Portland in a high-scoring affair, something like 125-118. I simply cant select versus a sizzling Dame in this scenario. Lillard arrived in Orlando on an objective and has actually been particularly secured because his clutch missed out on complimentary tosses versus the Clippers and the beef that occurred with a couple of dudes he has actually sent home previously, as the Blazers superstar so coolly reminded everybody.
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Herring: Without true home-court advantage for Portland, I think we might get to Sunday. Provided how enjoyable this restart has been, and to make the most of drama, I hope we get 2 games. And while Portlands defense is horrible, I expect that Dames offense will get rid of that during among the two video games.
Bontemps: Despite my issues about their energy level, I think the Blazers are just too gifted and skilled for the young Grizzlies. Portland will win by 15 points.
Pelton: Given how Portland video games have gone in the bubble, I expect it will be close, neither group will be able to stop the other offense and the Blazers will narrowly pull it out in the end.
5. Play-in winner vs. Lakers: How do you think that forms up?
Bontemps: From the Lakers perspective, the Blazers are the worst possible match amongst the teams who mightve clinched the eighth seed. L.A. has no one to protect Damian Lillard, and Portlands size inside can offer LeBron James problem at the rim. Eventually, the Lakers should win, but they are not far from threat. A cold streak of shooting (they are the worst shooting group and worst offending group in the bubble) or an unforeseen injury would put them there.
MacMahon: The Blazers are absolutely harmful sufficient to challenge the Lakers. Portland is also porous enough defensively to let the Lakers treat a lot of the offensive ills that have actually ailed them in the bubble. Ill predict a couple of traditional Dame supernova efficiencies in the series, so provide me Lakers in six.
Herring: Though Lillard or Ja Morant most likely would irritate the Lakers, I dont see Portland or Memphis providing the Lakers a serious run in the first round. Memphis does not have the experience, and– regardless of L.A.s offensive struggles in the bubble– I dont think the Blazers have the defense to get it done.
Pelton: While Im sure the Lakers would rather not deal with Lillard and a Blazers team with deep playoff experience, I think they should be heavily favored over whichever group wins this series.
Young: The Blazers will push the Lakers in what ought to be a good series. Even with the Lakers concerns in the bubble, the Blazers havent resolved all of theirs either, notably their defensive limitations. Winning four times would need 4 bonkers games from Lillard, which isnt difficult to think of. Issue is, that other side can counter with James and Anthony Davis to offset any Dame Time eruption. Lakers in six.
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Lets make it particular at least: How deep will the Grizzlies be with their pickup points on Lillard? Im thinking the Grizzlies will aggressively double-team Lillard, as the Nets did, and basically dare McCollum and the rest of the Blazers to beat them. Lillard characterizes that with his history of playoff walk-offs and his historical surface to this odd regular season to put Portland in this position. For the Grizzlies to have a possibility to beat the Blazers, they will require to make 3-pointers, and they have a lot of suspect shooters from deep. It might definitely take two video games with the friskiness of the Grizzlies, however at some point, Lillard discovers a method to come through.
