If there is one round where gamers arent being overdrafted, its the 4th, however if there is somebody from that group who is going a little high, its Singletary. After missing time early in the season, he was the clear workhorse back starting in Week 9. From that point on he was RB21, and he is being prepared as the RB23.
Round 3: RB Leonard Fournette|ADP: 3.02.
Final PFF 2020 Draft Rankings for Top HBs.
The Bengals hurried the ball on 42.9% of their plays throughout the 2nd half of last season– that was the third-most behind the Ravens and Titans. PFFs forecasts show Mixon balancing simply under 17 rushing efforts per video game and coming in as the 12th highest scoring back on the season.
Utilizing my individual rankings, the PFF agreement rankings and PFF forecasts, Ive found gamers worth avoiding in every round who are overvalued. ADPs are from BestBall10s during the week of Aug. 9-15. The list ends with Round 13 considering that the players in the last couple of rounds are all low-probability upside choices, kickers and team defenses.
For the last 5 seasons, Chris Thompson was Washingtons receiving back while Jay Gruden was the head coach. Fournettes fifth-year choice has actually been decreased, most likely making this his last season in Jacksonville.
Round 1: RB Joe Mixon|ADP: 1.09.
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Over the 2nd half of the 2019 season, the Bengals offense was primarily Joe Mixon when he ran the ball over 22 times per video game. He is being drafted like hell continue to see close to that volume, however that is extremely unlikely.
Every NFL offseason, we see players with high advantage hyped as much as the point they are no longer values at ADP when dream football drafts occur. These are players who have installed fantasy production in the past that for whatever reason is unlikely to continue, together with rookies and other young gamers with plenty of skill but a long course to playing time. Whatever the factor, these players are being drafted too early up and down the draft board..
Fournette is still slated to be the lead back in Jacksonville, however he has a lot working against him. His dream production in 2019 was all from amount instead of quality– his fantasy points per snap (0.29) was the most affordable of the 60 RB1 seasons over the last five years. And it wasnt just this previous season when Fournette got his dream production from volume– over the last 4 years, among the 31 running backs with a minimum of 500 attempts, Fournette has the second-lowest PFF run grade at 66.1.
Waiting at quarterback can still net you a future Hall of Famer. As late as Round 10 might still offer the likes of Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Wait even longer and there are plenty of veteran quarterbacks who have been a QB1 in the past. Every year, theres a great sense of which quarterbacks will remain in the QB1 conversation– however the order they complete modifications. If the options are Brees and a second round running back, or Jackson and a 10th-round running back, the latter is the much better play..
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While Singletary might be able to remain the lead back, we anticipate Moss to take a bigger role than what Gore had late in the season. The finest case situation involves Singletary ending up around RB21 again, which matches his ADP.
Giovani Bernard is likely to keep his third down and clear passing role circumstance he has had the last few seasons. This restricts Mixons advantage in the pass game and need to press him into the 2nd round.
Jackson is obviously a top-tier talent at the quarterback position. One factor hes on this list is because his dream production is bound to fall back. Of the 21 quarterbacks to score at least 350 or more dream points from 2010-2018, 20 of them scored at least 30 fewer points the list below year. The five with 400 or more points balanced a 90 point drop. Jackson can still be MVP-caliber and see a significant reduction to his dream production. If you take him here, theres definitely a high possibility he will end up as a QB1 as long as he does not get hurt– but that comes at the cost of an elite WR or high-end RB2.
Round 2: QB Lamar Jackson|ADP: 2.12.
Nov 3, 2019; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary (26) runs with the ball on his way for a goal versus the Washington Redskins throughout the 4th quarter at New Era Field. Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports.
Round 4: RB Devin Singletary|ADP: 4.09.
The problem is that his main competition in 2019 was a 36-year-old Frank Gore, who was strained in the very first half of the season while Singletary was out. This year, his competition comes from Zack Moss, a rookie who was prepared in the very same round Singletary. Moss was the second-best running back on PFFs huge board and we called him the most evasive in our draft guide..
74.
DAndre Swift.
77.
Zack Moss.
80.
Jonathan Taylor.
81.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
95.
J.K. Dobbins.
108.
Webcam Akers.
Hurst isnt completely to blame for being under-valued in the ninth round– part of the concern is the nature of tight ends this year. At this moment of the draft, half of drafters will have a beginning tight end, while the other half are feeling anxious to shoot on one. As long as individuals who prepared a top-five tight end dont get their backups early, its safe to wait longer than the ninth round.
The future for Mecole Hardman looks bright, just not in 2020. There are a lot of Chiefs gamers who will see more targets than Hardman. Tyreek Hill is the top wide receiver, and tight end Travis Kelce simply signed an agreement extension, so he also isnt leaving Kansas City anytime soon.
Round 13: TE Ian Thomas|ADP: 13.11.
Career Yards Per Route Run|2018 TE Draft Class.
At pass receiver, the Eagles likewise have DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey. Over the past 3 seasons, they have PFF grades of 82.6 and 82.5, respectively, which are 20th- and 21st-best among the 109 receivers with a minimum of 1,000 snaps in that time. There are certainly injury concerns there, but when everybody is healthy, Reagor does not see the field in their most-used offensive workers with beginners in.
For as skilled as Hooper is, our forecasts have him at 73 targets– 13th-most among tight ends. Other talented weapons like Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will all see a good variety of targets. I anticipate him to be a safe, low-end TE1/high end TE2, however there are other tight ends who fit that profile getting chosen later.
Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers have all outscored Mayfield in each of the last 2 seasons. While Rivers is in a brand-new situation that will likely hinder his fantasy worth, Goff and Cousins still have the weapons around them to potentially be QB1s.
In 2014 and 2015 when Bridgewater was the starter with the Vikings, Minnesota tight ends had 177 targets, which was in the bottom 10 for teams. If someone is selecting Thomas, he is either a third tight end on the lineup or backup to an elite tight end.
Among the number of rookie backs who have seen their ADPs rise in hopes of having a breakout season, Dobbins is the riskiest of the ones being prepared this early. There are a number of running backs with RB1 potential if there is an injury, and the rest can be drafted later on than the 6th round.
Will Dissly.
2.43.
He is being prepared at RB32, which would make sense if the running back circumstance was similar to 2019.
Ben Roethlisberger and Cam Newton both outshined him in 2018 prior to each missed the majority of 2019. Newton has the hurrying value that Mayfield does not, while Roethlisberger has a longer performance history. Jimmy Garapollo outscored him last year and has brand-new weapons. If you truly desire a young quarterback with a strong supporting cast, there is constantly Joe Burrow..
Round 10: TE Austin Hooper|ADP: 10.10.
A few of the other rookie backs have a path to an every-down function if they play well, however Ingram is too good to be relegated to a backup function. With Dobbins, youre relying on an injury to Ingram for the pick to pay off. Per our handcuff index, he would be a RB1 if that were to occur. There are a number of running backs with RB1 potential if there is an injury, and the rest can be prepared later on than the sixth round.
Round 5: RB Cam Akers|ADP: 5.07.
Nov 3, 2019; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens tight end Hayden Hurst (81) runs a route throughout the 2nd quarter versus the New England Patriots at M&T Bank Stadium. Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports.
Round 9: TE Hayden Hurst|ADP: 9.01.
Some of the arguments against Hurst in Round 9 are shared here. Hooper is a proven mid-tier TE1, but there is also an advantage to plenty of tight ends who are prepared after Hooper. As pointed out in my tight end tiers piece, Hooper is going to a group with a quarterback who is less accurate on his throws and has actually usually thrown to tight ends less than Atlanta. His new coach has actually run an offense that hasnt thrown to tight ends as much, either.
The Bills circumstance has some resemblances to the Rams, as they both drafted a running back in the third round in 2019 and have other young talent already on the roster. Each group added to the RB position in 2020– within 18 areas of where they prepared their 2019 backs.
Even if Hardman earns the clear 3rd large receiver area, it would take several injuries for us to count on him in re-draft. If Hardman is the No. 2 receiver next year, this will be a suitable spot for him. Until then, he is being method overvalued.
Nyheim Hines.
25.7%.
30.4%.
53.7%.
Chris Herndon.
1.62.
Mark Andrews.
2.47.
Ian Thomas is primed for a larger role in Carolinas offense now that Greg Olsen remains in Seattle. Regardless of the larger role, its unlikely he will have many TE1 weeks. Of the 38 tight ends with a minimum of 400 routes run over the last two seasons, both his 55.5 receiving grade and 0.94 yards per path run are third-lowest. Throughout two weeks when Olsen missed time, Thomas finished TE6 in one game and TE29 in the other. The TE6 week included 46 paths to capture 5 passes.
With unknowns here and several mouths to feed within the offense, there are similar tight ends offered. You can keep stockpiling running backs and wide receivers if you can wait another few rounds and pick 2 tight ends later.
Over the first five weeks of the season, Mack came in at RB17. Over the following 4 video game stretch when the Colts backs were healthy, he was RB21. Mack was RB30 over the last three games when the Colts backs were healthy.
Playing for the Falcons with Matt Ryan at the helm is an apparent advantage for Hurst– Austin Hooper was TE6 each of the last 2 seasons in this offense. Over the last two seasons, Hooper had actually 23 objected to catches– third-most for tight ends.
Round 8: WR Mecole Hardman|ADP: 8.08.
Last seasons rookies with early-round pedigree– T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant and Irv Smith Jr.– should all enhance in their sophomore seasons. Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Chris Herndon and Will Dissly are third-year tight ends who might likewise have huge seasons. In Hursts draft class, there arent any grades or data where he stands apart.
The Bills scenario has some resemblances to the Rams, as they both prepared a running back in the 3rd round in 2019 and have other young talent already on the roster. There are plenty of running backs, consisting of Moss or Henderson, that have upside like Akers, however those backs can be discovered in later rounds.
Jordan Wilkins.
16.2%.
21.4%.
39.0%.
The brand-new Cleveland coaching staff might certainly enhance Mayfields performance this year, though it might take a while with this distinct off-season. It might make good sense to choose a various position in Round 12 to get a quarterback of similar value in Round 13 or 14.
He is being drafted at RB32, which would make sense if the running back circumstance was comparable to 2019. The Colts invested the 41st total pick on Jonathan Taylor. The expectation is for Taylor to wind up getting more carries this season than Mack. Even if Taylor is restricted to a couple of runs per video game to start, that suffices for Mack to drop listed below RB30. It would take one RB injury for Mack to measure up to his ADP and 2 for him to surpass it.
Round 6: RB J.K. Dobbins|ADP: 6.01.
There is likewise reason to be concerned about the Eagles offense in basic at offending line, even though its normally outstanding. Andre Dillard graded out at 59.7 on 338 snaps as a rookie. Jason Kelce will be turning 33 midseason, and his PFF grade has decreased each of the last two seasons. Jason Peters is 38 and finding out a brand-new position. While Reagor has a path to targets, other pass receivers drafted around him, like Sterling Shepard and Preston Williams, have a clearer path to huge seasons.
Portion of third-down snaps in 2019 (At least one back wasnt healthy in the excluded weeks.).
Dallas Goedert.
1.57.
Hayden Hurst.
1.57.
Marlon Mack.
58.1%.
41.1%.
7.3%.
Round 7: RB Marlon Mack|ADP: 7.03.
Much more disheartening, Hardmans role reduced as the season went on. Over the last 4 weeks of the regular season and playoffs, Watkins had three times the snaps as Hardman, while Robinson had two times as many. From Week 6 to Week 13, after Hill returned from injury, neither Watkins nor Robinson had twice as lots of. The bulk of the time when we expect somebody to have a breakout sophomore season, they earned more playing time, not less.
Amongst the number of novice backs who have actually seen their ADPs rise in hopes of having a breakout season, Dobbins is the riskiest of the ones being prepared this early. The clear issue is the Ravens still have Mark Ingram II. His 79.8 total grade in 2019 was eighth-best for backs with a minimum of 200 snaps.
What makes the Rams circumstance scarier for fantasy drafters is that they also have running backs Malcolm Brown and John Kelly in the mix. Sean McVay just recently described all four as NFL starting-caliber. He also mentioned the success the 49ers had with their running back by committee technique. The 49ers backfield offered three various backs between 250 and 400 overall snaps. There are lots of running backs, including Moss or Henderson, that have upside like Akers, but those backs can be found in later rounds.
Dec 15, 2019; Glendale, AZ, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports.
Round 12: QB Baker Mayfield|ADP: 12.01.
Weeks 1-5.
Weeks 7-10.
Weeks 14-16.
There was speculation late in the season that Sammy Watkins may not returning, however hes back in the second wide receiver role. If the Chiefs were prepared to let Hardman have a much larger function, they most likely would not have actually brought back both players.
Marlon Mack is the single most misestimated gamer in drafts. Based on both our agreement rankings and forecasts, he must be going more detailed to the 13th round.
At this moment of the draft, youre drafting for upside, so nobody from this point on is as miscalculated as the gamers noted previously. For these players, there is reason to think their benefit might be restricted compared to others prepared around them. Reagor joins an Eagles team that ran 12 personnel over half of its plays– no other team was above 34%. While part of that was due to injuries to large receivers, Philadelphia is also most likely to desire both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert on the field.
Round 11: WR Jalen Reagor|ADP: 11.02.
