The Boston Celtics squeaked by the Toronto Raptors in 7 video games to make it to the Eastern Conference finals, while the Miami Heat required just five to take out the Milwaukee Bucks. The third-seeded Celtics are widely thought about the favorites, but the Heat are anything however a normal No. 5 seed.
1. Can the Celtics handle Miamis zone?
Boston didnt surpass the Raptors on the strength of its offense, which looked especially out of sorts against zone protection. The box-and-one made it difficult for Kemba Walker to discover his rhythm running pick-and-rolls and for Boston to create shots that the exact same methods they generally do. Miami knows this, and it played more zone than any other group in the NBA this season..
Maybe the 2nd round prepared the Celtics for whats coming. They were in analytical mode the entire time, and their coaching staff will make sure they will not be surprised if the Heat start Game 1 in a 2-3 zone. It is also possible, though, that zoning up is simply an effective way to combat the finest thing Boston does when it has possession of the ball: offering it to Walker and setting screens for him..
One thing that may make a zone less tenable is having another playmaker and shooter in the lineup, which brings us to …
2. Whats up with Hayward?
Gordon Hayward went through a little group workout after practice on Monday and “looked good when he was going through it,” coach Brad Stevens said, “but theres a big difference between doing that and really getting into a video game.” He will not play in the opener, however if he is offered after that and can approximate his play in the regular season, he can change the feel of the Celtics offense..
Hayward had an usage rate of only 20.6 percent this season, however that dramatically undersells his skills and how important he can be in a series like this. What makes Boston special is that, at complete strength, it can produce matchup issues with four border gamers, making it challenging for defenses to zero in on any of them or conceal a weak protector. Hayward is equally comfortable developing plays for others as he is for himself, which can not be stated about Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, so his existence naturally offers the offense more pop..
3. How will the Celtics compare defensively?
The luxury of starting four multipositional protectors is that Stevens has all sorts of alternatives. Im most thinking about whos on Goran Dragic and whos on Bam Adebayo at the beginning of Game 1.
Adebayo will press the ball off of protective rebounds and discover the Heat easy pails off of dribble-handoffs. When he has the ball at the elbow, Miami puzzles defenses the same method the Golden State Warriors did, with screens and cuts that typically end with Adebayo making a help– and if he senses youre playing him for the pass, he will gladly assault the basket himself. Boston understands all about his chemistry with Duncan Robinson, and if it chooses to hide Theis elsewhere, it is probably for the functions of switching when the 2 of them are involved in an action.
5. Is matchup-hunting the response versus the Heat?.
The Celtics offending approach may be totally different than it remained in the second round. “Isolation is not the answer,” Stevens stated two weeks back, but it may be now. While the Heat can be a terrible defensive group, they have a few weak private protectors in their rotation. The Indiana Pacers were at their best in the preliminary when they attacked Dragic, Robinson and Tyler Herro individually. Miami can counter this by offering more minutes to Andre Iguodala and Derrick Jones Jr., but that would mean compromising spacing on the other end..
Boston seems distinctively suited to exploit the Heat here, especially when they are changing ball screens. In these playoffs the Celtics have actually been far more of a pick-and-roll group and have actually had little success in seclusion, but champion contenders need to be able to play different methods versus different challengers. This matchup makes me believe of their second-round series 2 years ago, in which they consistently targeted the Philadelphia 76ers J.J. Redick, Dario Saric, Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova..
Team All-Defense guard Marcus Smart is the apparent choice to slow down Dragic, who was one of the leagues best reserves in the routine season and has actually been an extraordinary starter in the playoffs, a huge driver of Miamis success on offense. Tatum is an interesting option, however, and might be able to interfere with Dragics rhythm with his length– he and Brown both spent a lot of time guarding Raptors guards Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet in the second round (and will presumably both draw Jimmy Butler task).
Daniel Theis appears like the default matchup for Adebayo, however Ill wager Boston gets creative eventually in the series. You can anticipate Adebayo to attempt to bully his way to the rim and get to the complimentary throw line if Stevens experiments with Brown or even Smart on him. Because circumstance, however, the big male is typically the one who gets required the nasty. Which brings us to …
4. Can the Celtics handle the Bam things?
The Heat get an amazing amount of mileage out of Adebayo doing things that opposing groups dont see frequently. On offense he is a total weirdo, sort of a hybrid of Draymond Green and Domantas Sabonis, unconventional All-Stars in their own right, but with far more foot speed and explosiveness than either of them..
6. Will the Heat remain this hot from deep?
Miami altered in a basic way when it replaced Meyers Leonard with Jae Crowder and got Herro back from injury. Before Crowders launching on Feb. 9, Miami was ninth in 3-point frequency and second in accuracy, per Cleaning The Glass.
Miami will be difficult to stop if Crowder, a previous Celtic, continues shooting 40 percent on 8.3 efforts per video game. Bostons challengers usually take a lot of 3s but make a low percentage of them; in the 2nd round, Toronto shot 30 percent or worse in all four of its losses..
7. Can Herro keep this up?
Herro has actually made 40 percent of his 3s in the playoffs, but that does not tell the story. He is making them in crunch time, he is making them off the dribble and, more significantly, he has earned coach Erik Spoesltras trust as a playmaker. In a seeding video game against the Phoenix Suns, he had 25 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds; in the clincher versus the Bucks, he had 14 points, 6 assists and eight rebounds.
Boston may bring Hayward off the bench, a minimum of in the beginning, but if he starts (and works) then Miami may have to think about taking Robinson or Dragic out of the starting lineup for Iguodala. It makes sense to put Adebayo on Theis due to the fact that he can switch Walkers ball screens and otherwise wander around as a help protector, but if Tatum gets going, Spoelstra could toss Adebayo on him..
After protecting Giannis Antetokounmpo, Crowder could draw the Tatum project. Butler, nevertheless, may be more matched for it. These matchups may not matter all that much, though, ought to Spoelstra decide to switch everything..
The Boston Celtics squeaked by the Toronto Raptors in 7 video games to make it to the Eastern Conference finals, while the Miami Heat required only 5 to take out the Milwaukee Bucks. Boston didnt get past the Raptors on the strength of its offense, which looked especially out of sorts versus zone coverage. Daniel Theis appears like the default matchup for Adebayo, however Ill wager Boston gets innovative at some point in the series. Boston appears uniquely matched to exploit the Heat here, particularly when they are changing ball screens. Miami changed in an essential way when it changed Meyers Leonard with Jae Crowder and got Herro back from injury.
If Hayward is starting, where do Dragic and Robinson conceal?
How will they use Adebayo?
How much switching will they do?
Who secures Tatum?
The Celtics, with their army of wing protectors, are Herros most significant obstacle yet. I might see them attempting to take him out by putting Smart on him.
8. Can Boston protect without fouling?
Butler got to the line nine times a game in the regular season, which number has actually climbed up to 10.7 in the playoffs. Dragic and Adebayo can create chaos this way, too, and the Heat led the league in free throw rate in the routine season (and are 2nd in the playoffs). This is something to view, particularly because the Celtics were 24th in free toss rate defensively and are physical both on the perimeter and in the paint.
When Boston is foul-prone, the culprit is frequently Theis. Grant Williams, who closed out Game 7 against Toronto at center, likewise tends to pick up fouls on the within.
When Adebayo has been off the court, Miami has either had Kelly Olynyk in his location or gone without a huge male. In this respect, Boston is less predictable– if Stevens desires vertical spacing and shot-blocking, he can get in touch with Robert Williams; if he wants switchability and sound rotations, he can choose Grant Williams; if he desires offending rebounding and post-up scoring, he can attempt Enes Kanter. I wouldnt even be stunned to see Semi Ojeleye get some minutes at the 5 against Adebayo..
Theis normally plays 25-30 minutes per game, however he got 47 in double-overtime in Game 6. He might go with Robert Williams or Kanter when Theis goes to the bench if Stevens is looking for some offensive punch. They both leave Boston susceptible against Miamis pick-and-rolls, however, so I presume there will be a chance here for Grant Williams or Ojeleye, both of whom are officially listed at 6-foot-6, to play “center.”.
10. How will Miami compare defensively?
If the Heat elect not to utilize a lot of zone, there are numerous smaller sized concerns here:.
