If you were squinting perfect, you could see the ground moving below Nick Sabans feet last season. LSU, up until recently among the last happy purveyors of Big Burly Manball, had improved its offense and produced numbers no one had seen before, throwing for 6,000 backyards, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa and zooming to 15-0. Auburn, meanwhile, was playing the conferences most interesting and intriguing defense; Bamas Iron Bowl rival was the only group to hold LSU under 36 points and turned stated Iron Bowl with a pair of pick-sixes.
Alabama lost to both of its main rivals and ended up eighth in the AP survey, its least expensive positioning since 2010 (the previous time one of these two competitors won the national title). Was this the turning point then? Is the Saban dynasty finally crumbling to the ground?
Yeah, right. SEC West play is set up to start on Sept. 26, and guess whos projected to top the department pretty comfortably. As Saban finally gets his method, briefly, on larger conference schedules, his team could also have its way as soon as more in department play.
( Of course, we thought that last season, too, didnt we?).
Jump to: Arkansas
Those accountable for 60 of last seasons 65 offensive-line starts are gone, and the defense has to change not only last seasons leading four defensive backs however likewise all-world protective linemen Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson.
With onetime slot receiver Ainias Smith most likely playing running back, that means sophomore Jalen Preston is the only returning wideout who captured more than two passes last season. Sophomores Isaiah Spiller and Smith combined for 1,000 rushing backyards (mostly from Spiller) and 451 getting backyards (split 50-50) last season, and the line returns 4 beginners. The offense has actually ranked ahead of the defense in SP+ in each of the previous two seasons, and this season could see No. 3 in a row. DeVonta Smith (1,256 backyards and 14 TDs) and Jaylen Waddle return out broad, and running back Najee Harris shocked lots of (including me) by returning to construct off of last seasons 1,528 combined hurrying and receiving backyards.
Leach has famously said that it takes only 3 days to install his offense. He tends to hit the ground operating on that side of the ball– his very first starting quarterback at Texas Tech (Kliff Kingsbury) tossed for 3,418 backyards, and 2 QBs integrated for 3,965 yards in his first season at Washington State– and Im thrilled to see what he makes with such a physically imposing skill corps. MSU is scheduled to go to 4 groups forecasted in the SP+ preseason leading 25 (Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Kentucky) and hosts Texas A&M and Auburn. Home games versus Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Missouri must keep the record from getting too uneven, but even an enhanced Mississippi State is going to struggle this season.
I undoubtedly didnt like Orgerons replacement works with– NFL veteran Scott Linehan replaced Brady, and old pal Bo Pelini replaced Aranda– and theres no place to go but down after the way the Tigers ended up 2019. Even though all this turnover dropped LSU to 13th in the preseason SP+ rankings (fourth in the SEC West), the defending champs are the only group that can come close to matching Alabamas raw, top-to-bottom benefit. And in beginning the season with Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and Missouri, they could construct an early rhythm before the huge challenges start. The Tigers were exaggerated right up until the point where they perhaps ended up being underrated once again.
The offense has actually ranked ahead of the defense in SP+ in each of the previous 2 seasons, and this season might see No. 3 in a row. Jones was mostly tremendous in filling in for the hurt Tagovailoa late last season and will likely get a continued push from blue-chip freshman Bryce Young. In spite of losing two star receivers to the NFL, Bamas still got one of the very best skill corps in the nation. DeVonta Smith (1,256 lawns and 14 TDs) and Jaylen Waddle return out wide, and running back Najee Harris shocked many (including me) by returning to develop off of last seasons 1,528 combined hurrying and receiving lawns. The line loses an All-American tackle (Jedrick Wills Jr.) however returns another one (Alex Leatherwood), plus 4 others with starting experience.
Within the West, only LSU can match Bamas pure upside, and nobody can match the Tides depth. Last season was a modification of pace, but Bama most likely begins a brand-new CFP streak this winter.
After ranking 34th in offending SP+ last season, it requires to become at least a top-20 system or so for Auburn to compete, and the run game is going through a rebuild with a new line and backs Shaun Shivers and D.J. Williams (plus a blue-chip freshman or 2). Seth Williams, Eli Stove and Anthony Schwartz integrated for 1,766 hurrying and getting backyards and 15 TDs last season, but Auburn was just 92nd in passing success rate.
Coach: Mike Leach (first year) 2019: 6-7 (3-5), 51st in SP +2020 projection: 3-7, 48thFive finest returning players: RB Kylin Hill, DE Marquiss Spencer, DE Kobe Jones, WR Osirus Mitchell, FS C.J. Morgan.
Mike Leachs first SEC gig was a blended bag. As Hal Mummes Kentucky offensive organizer in 1997, he took control of a Wildcats offense that had actually balanced a ghastly 12.5 points per video game the season before and helped to nearly triple its output. They were even more amusing, however they still went simply 2-6 total in league play.
There will most likely be some parallels this fall. While Leach does not inherit nearly the exact same offensive mess from the outgoing Joe Moorhead– the Bulldogs were 36th in offending SP+ in 2019– he will likely both liven things up in his first season and lose more than he wins. Such is life with all-SEC schedules at the minute.
Leach acquires a much more powerful protective line than what hes utilized to recruiting (the top four returnees are all previous blue-chippers or near to it), and while hes never been much for running the football, he also inherits among the countrys best veteran RBs in 1,300-yard rush Kylin Hill, who should likewise be a strong receiving threat out of the backfield.
Leach generated former Stanford quarterback K.J. Costello, and his receiving corps, though unproven, is imposing. Senior Osirus Mitchell (6-foot-5, 210 pounds) is a solid downfield risk, former Alabama receiver Tyrell Shavers (6-6, 200) might be, too, and Austin Williams (6-3, 200) might be all set for a bigger role. Plus, it appears Leach is prepared to utilize acquired tight ends such as Dontea Jones (6-4, 230) and sophomores Geor quarius Spivey (6-5, 240) and Brad Cumbest (6-5, 245) as inside receivers. He also moved quarterback Garrett Shrader (6-4, 215) to that function. Its still going to be a Leach offense, of course, but its going to be bigger and more physical.
New protective organizer Zach Arnett comes from Rocky Longs San Diego State system, and while ends Marquiss Spencer and Kobe Jones ought to grow up front (both are strong pass-rushers and weigh a combined 560 pounds), Erroll Thompson is the only acquired linebacker who took at least 100 snaps last season, and Martin Emerson is the only cornerback who took more than 225. Big junior college transfers Jordan Davis and Tyrus Wheat will be asked to contribute rapidly at linebacker, as could blue-chip freshman corner Emmanuel Forbes.
Coach: Ed Orgeron (40-9, 4th full year) 2019: 15-0 (8-0), second in SP +2020 projection: 7-3, 13thFive best returning gamers: CB Derek Stingley Jr., WR Terrace Marshall Jr., S JaCoby Stevens, WR Racey McMath, DT Glen Logan.
Ed Orgeron famously bombed as Ole Miss head coach, then appeared on track to become an irreversible position-coach-turned-interim-head-coach when he landed his dream gig at LSU. In 2019, his third complete year on the task, he fielded one of the best offenses in college football history and rolled to a nationwide title.
He then continued to lose most of the reasons for last seasons run: No. 1 NFL draft pick Joe Burrow, all-world wide receivers JaMarr Chase and Justin Jefferson, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 4 offensive-line starters, 6 of the Tigers top nine protective linemen, 4 of their leading 5 linebackers and three of their top 5 defensive backs. Oh yeah, and offensive assistant (and honorary organizer) Joe Brady went to the NFL, while protective coordinator Dave Aranda took the Baylor head-coaching job.
The Tigers were ranked sixth in the preseason AP survey– already the most affordable placement for a safeguarding champ since Auburn started 23rd in 2011– however kept losing gamers to opt-outs after the vote. That made them a trendy “overrated!” pick, which completed quite a magic technique: Even after 2019, we might be undervaluing Orgeron all over again.
The 2020 LSU Tigers are an intriguing experiment in judging groups by what they lose vs. judging them by what they return. The “lose” list is legion, but heres what they have not lost:.
The bright side for Odom is that the bar is low– Arkansas has ranked higher than 67th in protective SP+ only as soon as in the past 5 years (49th in 2018). The offense went through a slow-motion collapse over recent seasons, but the defense was just mostly bad.
I think that truly wasnt really much of a bright side, was it?
Coach: Gus Malzahn (62-31, eighth year) 2019: 9-4 (5-3), ninth in SP +2020 forecast: 6-4, 11thFive finest returning players: pound Zakoby McClain, CB Roger McCreary, LB K.J. Britt, WR Anthony Schwartz, QB Bo Nix.
Weve grown accustomed to freshman quarterbacks flourishing quickly. USCs Kedon Slovis, North Carolinas Sam Howell and UCFs Dillon Gabriel all shined in 2019, Clemsons Trevor Lawrence, Georgias Jake Fromm and Alabamas Jalen Hurts all led their groups to the CFP title game as freshmen in recent years, and Alabamas Tua Tagovailoa came off the bench to save the day in one.
The success of others has actually made it hard to set a correct bar for gamers like Auburns Bo Nix. The kid of former Auburn quarterback Patrick Nix ended up being the Tigers starter instantly and had what you may call an old-fashioned freshman campaign. That is to state, it was rough. He produced a 180 passer rating or greater three times (two times against SEC foes), but it fell under 110 in six games as well, and Auburn averaged under 18 points per video game in losses. Still, in spite of sketchy overall efficiencies against Oregon and Alabama, he nailed each games essential throws, and Auburn won both video games. And with another brilliant Kevin Steele defense (the Tigers were 5th in defensive SP+), Auburn still went 9-4 total.
It might have been much worse for Nix, however in 2020 he has to be far better. The cast around him has been hit hard by attrition. Those accountable for 60 of last seasons 65 offensive-line starts are gone, and the defense has to replace not only last seasons top 4 protective backs but also all-world protective linemen Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson.
Depth was a strength for last seasons Auburn D, so lets presume the Tigers will be mostly fine on that side of the ball. Steele combines athleticism with disguise about as well as any protective coach, and AU has ranked sixth or much better in defensive SP+ for 3 consecutive years.
Depth is even more of an issue on the defense. 3 of last seasons top 4 linemen are gone, as is leading safety Jalen Julius, and a high percentage of Ole Miss recent blue-chippers use the offensive side of the ball. Still, the return of MoMo Sanogo gives co-coordinators Chris Partridge and DJ Durkin a fair bit to work with in the middle of the defense, and both corner Keidron Smith and corner/safety Jaylon Jones are solid. In between senior Sam Williams, redshirt freshman Brandon Mack and former Guelph University standout Tavius Robinson, at least one solid edge rush ought to emerge. Outside of inside linebacker, the tested quantities are minimal.
The schedules about as kind as an SEC West schedule can be– Auburn and Alabama pertain to Oxford, and the Rebels constantly draw Vanderbilt out of the East. Still, getting to.500 will require some brand-new defensive standouts to emerge and the offensive line to hold up. It may likewise require some sort of cloning task to combine all of Corrals and Plumlees great qualities into one QB.
Coach: Lane Kiffin (very first year) 2019: 4-8 (2-6), 53rd in SP +2020 projection: 4-6, 38thFive finest returning gamers: RG Ben Brown, RB Jerrion Ealy, LB Jacquez Jones, QB Matt Corral, LB Sam Williams.
Lane Kiffin likes to keep things loose. He enjoys himself on Twitter, he dragged Nick Saban out of his convenience zone (and dragged Alabamas offense into the 2010s), and he maintains his funny bone at almost all times.
It makes thematic sense, then, that his go back to the SEC can be found in part since a gamer commemorated a touchdown by mimicing a urinating dog.
Elijah Moores unfortunate celebration, followed by the missed out on PAT that cost Ole Miss the Egg Bowl, likewise cost Matt Luke his job after 3 seasons of leading his university. Luke went just 15-21 while guiding his Rebels through the sanctions left behind by the Hugh Freeze era. And now Kiffin gets to lead the program into the future.
He certainly improved Alabamas offense in the mid-2010s and won a national title in the procedure, and in 3 years as Florida Atlantics head coach, he led the Owls to their very first 2 Conference USA titles. In spite of his nearly 2 complete, prominent years as a coach, hes somehow only 45.
He acquires some alluring offensive workers, too. Sophomore running backs Jerrion Ealy and Snoop Conner combined for 1,234 lawns (6.7 per bring) last season, and while previous coordinator Rich Rodriguezs offense took a run-heavy turn in 2019, a receiving corps of Moore and young previous blue-chippers such as Jonathan Mingo and Dannis Jackson might produce some fireworks. The line is pretty thin, but the trickiest thing for Kiffin and offending planner Jeff Lebby will be finding out how to get the most from two quarterbacks. Sophomore passer Matt Corral was born to play in a Kiffin system, but John Rhys Plumlee was as explosive with his legs as he was restricted with his arm.
Derek Stingley Jr., the very best cornerback in college football.
FCS All-American and former North Dakota State linebacker Jabril Cox.
Security JaCoby Stevens, LSUs steadiest protective back (and a strong playmaker) last season.
Wide receivers Terrace Marshall Jr. and Racey McMath, who combined for 956 lawns and 16 TDs last season.
Four offensive linemen with beginning experience, plus veteran D-linemen Glen Logan and, if he chooses back in as reported, Neil Farrell Jr
. Offending coordinator Steve Ensminger, who did still outrank Brady (and still has Bradys playbook).
Quarterback Myles Brennan, who likely will not replicate Burrows otherworldly production but did get lots of representatives in last seasons run of blowout wins.
A special-teams unit that ranked 12th in special teams SP+ last year and returns all of its legs.
Young blue-chippers all over. Sophomore RBs John Emery Jr., Tyrion Davis-Price and Chris Curry. Sophomore receiver Trey Palmer, plus incoming freshmen Arik Gilbert– a hybrid TE and matchup nightmare– and Kayshon Boutte. Offending linemen Kardell Thomas and Marcus Dumervil. Sophomore defensive take on Siaki Ika. Layers of star freshmen at each level of the defense.
Sophomores Isaiah Spiller and Smith combined for 1,000 hurrying yards (mostly from Spiller) and 451 receiving backyards (split 50-50) last season, and the line returns four starters. The Aggies were 11th in hurrying success rate and return many of the reasons why.
After averaging a No. 51 protective SP+ ranking from 2013 through 2017, A&M ranked 21st and 23rd in Fishers first two seasons. The run defense was all-or-nothing in 2015, but the pass defense was exceptional. Of the 16 players who logged a minimum of 200 snaps, 11 return, including a star in linebacker Buddy Johnson and a trio of seasoned securities. Defensive organizer Mike Elko has some excellent depth to work with, but there is a big enigma at cornerback following Debione Renfros departure and Elijah Blades opt-out. Senior Myles Jones returns, however Elko might need to dip into a well of freshmen to discover the depth he requires. And if the Aggies hold true development candidates, a top-25 defense most likely needs to threaten the top 10.
Coach: Nick Saban (44-12, 5th year) 2019: 11-2 (6-2), 3rd in SP +2020 forecast: 8-2, secondFive finest returning players: WR DeVonta Smith, LT Alex Leatherwood, CB Patrick Surtain II, Pound Dylan Moses, RB Najee Harris.
It took a generational LSU offense, a freaky quarterback injury, two Auburn pick-sixes and an entire bunch of field objective misery (LSU and Auburn went 6-for-6 on field objectives of 40-plus lawns, while Bama missed a 30-yarder against Auburn) for Nick Saban and Alabama to finally miss out on the College Football Playoff after five consecutive appearances. With one more break, the Crimson Tide perhaps keep the streak alive; alas, Bama lost two times in the routine season for the very first time considering that 2010 and completed outside of the SP+ top two for the first time given that 2008.
The most recent time the Crimson Tide suffered a multi-loss regular season, naturally, they reacted by winning back-to-back nationwide titles. Its difficult to predict that in an age that sees a couple of various superpower programs cranking along in or near 5th equipment, but it probably would not amaze you either, would it? Both of Sabans organizers return after years of steady turnover, and first-round quarterback Tua Tagovailoas follower, Mac Jones, got sufficient experience in changing him midway through 2019 that he nearly certifies as a returning starter.
After ranking first in defensive SP+ for 4 straight years (2014-17), the Tide have slipped a bit by their standards. A rebuilt secondary held them back in 2018, and a run of linebacker injuries and severe youth in the front seven produced some problems last season. Obviously, they slipped just to third and seventh, respectively, however hey, thats regression in Tuscaloosa.
Its the secondarys turn once again to deal with the spotlight. Four of in 2015s top five DBs are gone, and while the corner talent is high-level– Patrick Surtain II is on the brief “best corners not called Stingley” list, and junior Josh Jobe is excellent– sophomore Jordan Battle is now the dean amongst safeties. Blue-chip freshmen like Brian Branch will have to depend on speed from day one.
An elite front seven will certainly assist. Last years freshmen– linebackers Shane Lee and Christian Harris, takes on Christian Barmore and DJ Dale– are this years seasoned sophomores, and veterans like linebackers Dylan Moses and Joshua McMillon and end LaBryan Ray return after missing all or many of 2019 as well.
Coach: Jimbo Fisher (21-5, third year) 2019: 8-5 (4-4), 21st in SP +2020 forecast: 7-3, 10thFive finest returning players: LB Buddy Johnson, RB Isaiah Spiller, DE DeMarvin Leal, QB Kellen Mond, S Leon ONeal Jr
. Jimbo Fisher lost eight video games in his very first 2 seasons at Florida State before a third-year advancement. Behind veteran quarterback E.J. Manuel and an excellent defense, FSU leapt to 12-2, and then, with a precocious redshirt freshman quarterback named Jameis, the offense finished its leap in Year 4 and the Seminoles rolled to the nationwide title.
If, like numerous, youve spent this offseason talking yourself into Texas A&M, you probably currently figured out some parallels there. Fisher has actually lost 9 video games in his very first 2 seasons in College Station, but hell have a fairly accomplished senior quarterback in Kellen Mond and a veteran defense in Year 3. Fishers Aggies are just 1-7 against the top-10 groups hell eventually need to beat to justify his 10-year, $75-million agreement, but it normally takes a while to build something great.
Mond has one more chance to put together an advancement performance. With onetime slot receiver Ainias Smith likely playing running back, that suggests sophomore Jalen Preston is the only returning wideout who captured more than two passes last season.
Tight end Jalen Wydermyer does return after capturing 32 passes, and junior Hezekiah Jones captured 15 balls in 2018 before missing out on last season, so the cabinets not totally bare. Plus, Preston, redshirt freshmen Kam Brown and Dylan Wright and real freshmen Demond Demas and Moose Muhammad III are all former blue-chippers. You d choose to have to lean on only one freshman to break through. A&M might need 2 or 3.
Coach: Sam Pittman (first year) 2019: 2-10 (0-8), 108th in SP +2020 projection: 2-8, 75thFive finest returning players: RB Rakeem Boyd, LB Bumper Pool, CB Montaric Brown, C Ty Clary, LT Myron Cunningham.
A coachs first year on the task is constantly a challenging one. You dont have time to generate a lot of your own recruits for that first season. You need to implement your vision of the program with players recruited for another persons vision. And since your brand-new employer needed to hire someone in the very first place, it implies either that your new group was really bad the previous season, or that it was great enough to lose the previous coach to a better task. In either case, executing your own culture will have lots of obstacles.
Now contribute to that normal mess a combination of (a) the coronavirus blockage limiting the amount of practice time you had, (b) your brand-new company being not simply bad, however AWFUL the past 2 years (Arkansas in 2018-19: 4-20), and (c) living in the hardest division in college football. In Sam Pittmans case, (d) youre a novice head coach. This is a Year Zero if ever one existed.
One of the most proven offensive-line coaches in the game– over the previous 25 years, he has actually served in that function at Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Northern Illinois, North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas and Georgia– Pittmans done as well as he could this offseason. To deal with 2 years of hopeless quarterback play, he brought in Florida grad transfer Feleipe Franks.
Just like Vanderbilt, SP+ tasks the Hogs as multiscore underdogs in every game. Its not quite as hopeless a circumstance as Vanderbilts, however– they have at least a 28% chance of winning in 3 video games (at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, at Missouri), while Vandys top likelihood is 17%. Plus, they just have more talent.
On offense, Franks and running back Rakeem Boyd (1,293 combined rushing and getting yards) are absolute SEC skills, and three different returning broad receivers (junior Mike Woods and sophomores Treylon Burks and Trey Knox) published at least one 90-yard game last season. Briles on-field track record is well developed, and he and Franks should have a great connection.
Last seasons Razorbacks defense was decent at times versus the run, but a secondary complete of sophomores and freshmen got absolutely worked. 5 of last seasons top 8 linemen are gone, as is linebacker and leading tackler DeJon Harris, so Odom will have some holes to patch in the ground game.
