It appeared like baseball may never get here, however MLBs routine season pertained to an end on Sunday, and the playoffs are at hand. And its going to get outrageous: The postseason now has 16 teams– which should mean more mayhem– and no home-field advantage for many of it, with neutral-site games in the division series through the World Series. And the schedule for the wild-card round alone will suffice to overload us with baseball for the foreseeable future:
When the games start, the stories will abound. Taking a look at our MLB prediction design, here are the dominant styles as we head into one of the wildest postseasons ever.
The Dodgers are heavy favorites
The 16-team format served to dampen the World Series odds for top groups, that hasnt stopped the Los Angeles Dodgers from looking like far and away the finest team of 2020. We currently offer L.A. a 33 percent chance of winning it all, which is the highest pre-playoff possibility for any favorite since we released our predictions in 2015. (And thats without even considering Cody Bellinger or Max Muncy, who both reached that level last season.).
The most significant concern is whether L.A. can finally capitalize on its champion potential after one of the most successful multi-year runs ever by a group with no titles to reveal for it. The only groups to win more regular-season games than the 2013-19 Dodgers in any-seven year period without a champion came from the latter half of the Atlanta Braves 14-season division title streak and the post-2000 New York Yankees.
The protecting AL champs did not entirely implode after the most tumultuous offseason in current baseball memory. But they werent the Astros weve been used to seeing, either. Houston completed with a losing record (29-31), and its performance fell off throughout the board– most significantly on offense, where the Astros wRC+ fell from No. 1 in 2019 to simply 17th this year. Fair or not, any decrease for Houston hitters this season was going to be viewed as a referendum on the usefulness of their rule-breaking in the past. (That perception wasnt helped by the truth that Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, 2 of the main figures in the scandal fallout, each saw their wRC+ numbers fall by a minimum of 45 points considering that in 2015.).
After down years by a couple of prominent batters and season-ending surgical treatment for ace Justin Verlander, its challenging to take the Astros bid for a 3rd pennant in four seasons seriously. However its likewise important to bear in mind that 60 video games is not a huge sample– which is why, according to Elo ratings (which change only incrementally after each game of the season, in a manner that our screening has actually figured out is best for forecasting future results), Houston stays among the much better teams in MLB … in theory. (Hence, their 5 percent World Series probability, regardless of the mediocre record.) Whether that talent will suddenly manifest itself in the postseason, however, remains to be seen.
We understood the Dodgers were going to be dominant in the NL. In the AL, our two preseason favorites– the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros (more on them later)– did not exactly have incredible seasons, even though each did make the playoffs. This left the door open for the Tampa Bay Rays to secure the ALs No. 1 seed, and for the Oakland Athletics, Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians to move up the ranks too. It also means there is no clear favorite in the AL postseason field. The Rays have the best World Series odds (10 percent) of any AL team– edging out the Yankees (8 percent)– and Tampa Bay is playoff-ready in theory, as the only group that ranked among the leading 5 in WAR both on defense and in the bullpen. Yet they are slim favorites at best, with two other teams (New York and Minnesota) sitting within 3 portion points of them in our pennant chances. If the Rays falter, a reputable case might be produced virtually every other AL team to represent the league on the planet Series– from the mega-talented Yankees, to the powerful Twins and the pitching-rich Indians, to the well balanced and incredibly deep As, and beyond.
The Cinderellas have an opportunity.
Others– like the surprising Miami Marlins– probably arent excellent enough to reasonably make a World Series run. In the AL, the Chicago White Sox (2 percent) and Toronto Blue Jays (1 percent) have nontrivial opportunities to win the World Series; Chicago looks especially unsafe with its mix of striking (No. 7 in WAR), defense (No. 7) and relief pitching (No. 10). It will be harder for the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers to make the World Series with the Dodgers in their method, but each at least has the prospective to deliver an upset.
The American League is more wide-open.
Nobody knows what to anticipate from the Astros.
2020 could be the year of the breakout group– or the team lastly overcoming the hump.
2 of the finest stories of this, um, distinct MLB season have actually been breakouts for the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres, a couple of franchises that each ended playoff droughts of over a decade in 2020. After three straight World Series featuring either the Astros or Dodgers (or both), theres at least some chance we get an all-breakout match in the Fall Classic.
Take a look at our most current MLB forecasts.
And its going to get ridiculous: The postseason now has 16 teams– which should mean more turmoil– and no home-field advantage for many of it, with neutral-site games in the division series through the World Series. The 16-team format served to dampen the World Series odds for leading teams, that hasnt stopped the Los Angeles Dodgers from looking like far and away the finest team of 2020. The Rays have the finest World Series chances (10 percent) of any AL team– edging out the Yankees (8 percent)– and Tampa Bay is playoff-ready in theory, as the only group that ranked among the leading 5 in WAR both on defense and in the bullpen. If the Rays falter, a reputable case could be made for practically every other AL group to represent the league in the World Series– from the mega-talented Yankees, to the powerful Twins and the pitching-rich Indians, to the remarkably deep and well balanced As, and beyond.
The Rays (No. 3 in WAR) might be looking at their finest opportunity yet to reach the groups second-ever World Series. The Athletics (No. 7) have actually been attempting to crack the postseason code for two decades now. And of course, even the Dodgers havent in fact won the World Series considering that 1988.
The Rays (No. 3 in WAR) might be looking at their finest possibility yet to reach the teams second-ever World Series.
Whatever occurs, these playoffs have an excellent opportunity to provide us a satisfying story at the end of a season that– for a long time– didnt even look like it might happen. And what we see along the way could make for the most entertaining postseason in a long period of time. Play ball!
