That part of the photo slowly began to take shape in Week 5, as Pitts loss to unranked NC State on Saturday brings into question whether the Panthers are a top-25 group. It becomes a Catch-22 when a win versus a ranked opponent knocks that team out of the top 25. Yes, its a wildly unpredictable year, but with the Sooners 2nd loss and Texas losing at home to TCU on Saturday, the Big 12 is already in the worst playoff position of the Power 5 conferences. It does have 2 challenging roadway trips– a Friday night at Houston on Oct. 16, and Nov. 7 at Boise State– but that will not stack up against the likes of what a Power 5 conference champ had to get rid of.
Brian Rothmuller/Icon SportswireWith its Nov. 7 start, Pac-12 teams will have played a tremendous three games before the selection committee reveals its first of 5 rankings on Nov. 24.
How high can BYU climb?
Tight end Carter Wheat and BYU are off to a strong start this season, but the Cougars may have a tough time making the playoff even if they run the table. AP Photo/Rick BowmerBYU has enforced its will in three straight wins versus overmatched opponents, however what if it keeps cruising? Would the choice committee offer it serious factor to consider for a semifinal spot?
Ehhh.
According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, if BYU runs the table, the Cougars have a 35% chance to make the playoff. Thats encouraging, however as of now, BYU does not deal with a single ranked opponent. It does have two challenging road trips– a Friday night at Houston on Oct. 16, and Nov. 7 at Boise State– but that will not stack up versus the likes of what a Power 5 conference champion needed to get rid of.
ESPNs Football Power Index gives BYU at least a 63% chance to win each of its remaining video games. The Cougars have actually been outstanding on both sides of the ball through their first 3 wins. BYU has actually allowed 24 points in its first three games, the fewest points enabled by the Cougars in the very first 3 video games since 1951. Fridays win versus Louisiana Tech was BYUs third straight game with a minimum of 500 yards of total offense.
The committee takes notice of all of those things– however it also considers who those achievements came against. With no Power 5 opponents or championship game video game, the independent Cougars are still a long shot for the CFP.
Can the Pac-12 start hot?
Mykael Wright and Oregon, the Pac-12s only ranked team up until now, are anticipated to finally open their season against Stanford on Nov. 7. Brian Rothmuller/Icon SportswireWith its Nov. 7 start, Pac-12 groups will have played a whopping 3 games before the choice committee exposes its very first of 5 rankings on Nov. 24. Alabama, if it doesnt have any interruptions from the virus, will have played 8. Clemson nine.
Alabama and Clemson will be in true “November” kind.
ASU and USC will open the season at 9 a.m. PT on Nov. 7– the earliest kickoff for a USC home video game considering that the early 1950s, when total records are available. , if either of those groups hopes to go into the conversation– or even the CFP Top 25– theres no time to sleepwalk through their opener.
.
When the Ducks open at home against Stanford on Nov. 7, it will have been about 10 months since Oregon last played a video game (Jan. 1). With just seven video games, the Pac-12 has less chances to impress the choice committee and almost no versatility to represent coronavirus disruptions, and the conference will be under pressure to shake off the rust quickly.
When No. 14 Oregon opens its season in the house against Stanford, its going to seem like a must-win situation for the Ducks, who are the leagues only ranked team and leading playoff hope today.
Every game, though, will bring that weight.
This season, more than ever, strength of schedule might imply strength of conference– though the 13 College Football Playoff selection committee members likely would never publicly confess.
Over the previous six seasons of the playoff, committee chairs have actually firmly insisted that the group ranks teams, not conferences, however during a season in which there arent any marquee nonconference matches to help compare contenders, the only ranked groups to improve résumés are conference opponents.
Rather of comparing Oregon and Ohio State with a head-to-head match, for instance, those 2 teams will have to impress the committee with wins against opponents from their own conference. That suggests fans need to hope their league has actually numerous groups ranked by the committee come Selection Day on Dec. 20.
That part of the image gradually began to take shape in Week 5, as Pitts loss to unranked NC State on Saturday brings into question whether the Panthers are a top-25 group. As of now, Alabamas schedule is incredibly strong with 6 opponents ranked in the top 25, however will it remain that method through December?
Is the SEC West as deep as its 5 top-20 groups presently indicate?
Florida again looked like a top-four competitor in its win versus South Carolina, however if it beats Texas A&M on Saturday, how far will the Aggies drop? When a win versus a ranked opponent knocks that team out of the leading 25, it becomes a Catch-22. It has actually always been one of the most subjective aspects of the procedure, but how deep a conference is has always mattered.
Is the ACC Clemson– and Notre Dame– and everyone else? Or will No. 12 North Carolina and No. 8 Miami keep it fascinating? Will Oregon play any regular-season games versus ranked opponents?
2 RelatedIf a Group of 5 conference is ever going to split the code to the CFP, it is going to need to face numerous ranked opponents from its league due to the fact that of the restricted number of opportunities against Power 5 opponents. No. 25 Memphis losing hurt the American Athletic Conference, unless the Tigers can find a way to make a top-25 area by the committee when its rankings start next month.
The committees protocol for selecting the leading 4 teams stays the exact same, however the résumés will look starkly various. Still, fans will likely hear committee chair Gary Barta, Iowas athletic director, mention the usual reasons for ranking groups they have heard in the past: number of wins against CFP top-25 teams, variety of wins against opponents with records above.500.
That appears like its going to be a problem for the Big 12 …
Is the Big 12 done?
AP Photo/Charlie NeibergallWe can stop talking about Oklahoma and the playoff. Yes, its a wildly unforeseeable year, however with the Sooners 2nd loss and Texas losing at home to TCU on Saturday, the Big 12 is currently in the worst playoff position of the Power 5 conferences.
If Texas beats OU next week, how impressive would it actually be?
OU lost to Iowa State, which lost its opener to Louisiana. Recently the Sooners lost to Kansas State, which lost to Arkansas State. And after that theres Texas, which needed overtime to beat Texas Tech, and lost at home Saturday to TCU.
Even Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger understands not to talk about the “huge image” today.
” We should not even be thinking huge photo today with the amount of little errors that we made,” he stated. “Weve got to can be found in tomorrow and improve. Clearly weve got a big one this week [against Oklahoma] and youve got to concentrate on the next one.”.
Yes, its an excellent rivalry video game, however that appears to be the degree of its implications right now.
Why isnt the CFP expanding today?
Since just surviving this season in the midst of a pandemic is tough enough. The CFP management committee met on Sept. 30 for what was its very first meeting since all 10 FBS conferences announced plans to play football this fall.
Considering the irregular schedules the committee will need to assess, Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott asked his fellow FBS commissioners and Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick to consider an eight-team playoff for this season that would include 5 Power 5 conference champs as automatic qualifiers.
” They chose that doing that now would be such a considerable modification, and include a lot of difficulties, particularly provided the timing with the season currently underway, that they concluded that the very best outcome would be to make no modifications in the format,” CFP executive director Bill Hancock told ESPN.
Scott still accomplished something crucial today: He got his peers to a minimum of think about an eight-team playoff. It didnt have sufficient assistance, sources stated it did have some support, and it was an important discussion because it was the very first time a Power 5 commissioner said publicly that he raised an eight-team format to the group.
This late in the season, though, that type of drastic modification to the playoff system would likely require frustrating support– if not unanimous– which wasnt the case today.
