Here are four factors that will help decide the ALCS, in no specific order.
1. Tampas righty arms vs. Houstons righty bats.
Pete Fairbanks is a weapon the Rays did not have in 2015s ALDS.
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The Rays showed us the blueprint to beat the Astros in ALDS Game 5 versus the Yankees. New York has an extremely right-handed heavy lineup and Tampa smothered them with power right-handed arms all video game long. Four Rays pitchers held the Yankees to one run (on a solo homer) and three hits while starting out 11.
The Astros have a righty-heavy lineup. Their leading two lefty bats are Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker, who are quite hazardous, whichs about it. Josh Reddick has actually been a non-factor for two years now, actually, and energy gamers Garrett Stubbs and Abraham Toro dont figure to factor into the ALCS much, if at all.
There are way more righty pitchers than lefty pitchers in baseball and, as a result, the Astros and Yankees had the most affordable rate of plate appearances with the army benefit during the routine season:.
White Sox: 47.3 percent.
Blue Jays: 47.5 percentMLB average: 53.8 percent.
Astros: 43.2 percent.
Yankees: 43.8 percent.
Sunday night the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays will open the best-of-seven American League Championship Series at Petco Park in San Diego. The Astros knocked off the Athletics in 4 video games in the ALDS while the Rays lasted longer than the Yankees in five video games. Heres how you can see Game 1 on Sunday.
The ALCS is of course a rematch of in 2015s ALDS. The Astros beat the Rays in five games in 2015 en route to their 2nd American League pennant in 3 years. Gerrit Cole was the difference in last years ALDS. The Astros-turned-Yankees righty enabled one run in 15 2/3 innings in two postseason starts versus Tampa. He struck out 25.
” I believe that were much better this year than we were in 2015,” Rays center fielder Kevin Kiermaier informed reporters, including MLB.coms Juan Toribio, on Saturday. “And likewise, I understand they have a lot of talent over there still, but they do not have Gerrit Cole or Justin Verlander, and we certainly like that.”.
The Astros went 29-31 and would not have reached the postseason without the broadened 16-team format. That stated, Houston is playing much more like the 2017-19 Astros than the 2020 routine season Astros right now.
The Rays held the Astros to 19 runs in the five-game ALDS in 2015 and their pitching staff is a lot more right-handed now due to the fact that Peter Fairbanks has actually emerged as a relied on late-inning option. Fairbanks basically replaces lefty Colin Poche, who is out with Tommy John surgical treatment, in supervisor Kevin Cashs Circle of Trust ™.
Do not sleep on sidewinding righty Ryan Thompson either. He struck out 25.6 percent of the right-handed batters he faced this year with a 55.6 percent ground ball rate. The Rays utilized him as an opener in Game 4 of the ALDS and might do the exact same versus the Astros, who normally have five righties in the leading six lineup areas.
They went a combined 6 for 40 (.150) in the 5 games. Those two are 18 for 47 (.383) with 6 home runs in six postseason video games this year.
Braves: 44.7 percent.
2. Lowe snapping out of his depression.
During the regular season second baseman-slash-outfielder Brandon Lowe was Tampas best position player. He struck.269/.361/.554 with 14 home runs in 56 games and likely received MVP votes. This postseason though, Lowe has been the weak spot in the Rays offense, even if it hasnt stopped them from advancing.
Lowe is 2 for 26 (.077) this postseason and the 2 hits was available in his first 5 at-bats, so hes riding an 0 for 21 slump, and was 0 for 18 with 7 strikeouts in the ALDS. The Yankees assaulted him with elevated fastballs and Lowe kept swinging through them.
” None whatsoever,” Cash told press reporters, including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, when asked about dropping Lowe from his usual No. 2 area in the lineup prior to ALDS Game 5. “Brandon is going to come up huge for us. Hes getting close.”.
The Rays have won without Lowe contributing since Randy Arozarena has actually been on a warpath and others like Mike Brosseau, Austin Meadows, and Mike Zunino has cracked in prompt homers. Tampa is striking just.217/.295/.434 as a team this postseason though. They Rays will require more offense than that to beat Houston and Lowe snapping out of his funk would go a long to way.
3. Greinkes status.
It has been a tough few weeks for Astros righty Zack Greinke.
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The Astros and Rays were both struck hard by pitching injuries this year. Tampa lost 3 members of its pitching personnel to Tommy John surgical treatment (Poche, Jalen Beeks, Yonny Chirinos) plus others like Jose Alvarado (shoulder inflammation), Andrew Kittredge (elbow sprain), Brendan McKay (shoulder surgical treatment), and Chaz Roe (sore elbow), yet the group keep winning.
Houston lacks Verlander, who had Tommy John surgical treatment late last month, and closer Roberto Osuna, who is attempting to prevent Tommy John surgical treatment himself. Relied on seasoned relievers Chris Devenski (elbow surgery) and Brad Peacock (shoulder surgical treatment) are out. This series is as much about who is unable to pitch as it is who is really on the mound.
Beyond Javier, Baker has done fine work putting righty Enoli Paredes in positions to succeed this postseason– hes retired all 11 men hes dealt with– and Paredes would take on increased duty should Javier move into the rotation. Javier, Pressly, and Paredes are Houstons most trusted end-game relievers right now.
Rubbing the rest of this patchwork bullpen (lefties Blake Taylor and Brooks Raley, righties Josh James and Andre Scrubb, and so on) during this seven games in 7 days stretch will be of paramount importance in the ALCS. That goes for the Rays also, though Tampas pitching personnel is a bit deeper. Baker has a young bullpen and will need a deft touch.
Its difficult to anticipate the terrific variation of Greinke to show up in the ALCS just based on the last few weeks though. Pitchers generally do not fight an aching arm and get rocked for over a month, then amazingly go back to normal a week later on. Theres normally an injured list stint included. The difference in the ALCS could be Greinke providing the Astros something instead of nothing.
4. Dustys bullpen management.
If youre still slamming Baker for running Mark Prior and Kerry Wood into the ground, youre still in the stone age. Dusty has shown he is an excellent postseason bullpen supervisor in his last few stints, and it has been obvious again this October, when he utilized Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier as reducers in the Wild Card Series, and combined and matched the As into submission in the ALDS.
Javier, 23, pitched to a 3.48 ERA in 10 starts and two relief appearances throughout the regular season, however hes been used specifically in relief this postseason. Javier might be Bakers the majority of trusted reducer behind closer Ryan Pressly at the moment.
The Astros knocked off the Athletics in 4 video games in the ALDS while the Rays outlived the Yankees in 5 games. The Astros beat the Rays in five video games last year en route to their second American League pennant in 3 years. The Rays showed us the plan to beat the Astros in ALDS Game 5 against the Yankees. The Rays used him as an opener in Game 4 of the ALDS and might do the exact same versus the Astros, who typically have five righties in the top six lineup spots.
There will be no off days in the ALCS, nevertheless, so the Astros and Rays could play seven video games in seven days.
Amidst the injuries, Zack Greinke was to be the Astros dependable workhorse, and he was for much of the season. He is now dealing with an aching arm though, something that certainly added to the 5.73 ERA he published in his last 7 routine season starts, and the five runs hes allowed 8 2/3 tiresome postseason innings. Rather of being the postseason ace, Greinkes been a liability.
” Greinke is ailing some. He didnt state much about it, but its quite obvious the last 3 or 4 starts that he wasnt himself,” Astros supervisor Dusty Baker told press reporters, including MLB.coms Rhett Bollinger, last week. “… He has some soreness in his arm. He went to see the physicians and we do not have the results yet.”.
Baker stated that before Greinke started ALDS Game 4 last Thursday– tests revealed no structural damage– and allowed 4 runs in 4 2/3 innings. The Astros might press Greinke as far back as Game 5 (if required) of the ALCS on Thursday, offering him a full week in between starts. He was included on the teams ALCS roster– there was chatter he might be changed– suggesting the Astros expect him to help in some capacity.
There will be no off days in the ALCS, nevertheless, so the Astros and Rays could play 7 video games in 7 days. That indicates the 2 supervisors will have to run their bullpen differently, and it also implies they will require to utilize a minimum of a 4th starter, and perhaps even a fifth starter depending upon their willingness to utilize starters on three days rest. That might push Javier into the rotation.
” Were leaning towards him (as a) reliever, however I cant tell you everything,” Baker informed reporters, including MLB.coms Brian McTaggart, previously this weekend. “They do not need to know all our plans, we dont know their strategies.”.
Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. will start Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS, respectively. Jose Urquidy is an apparent prospect to begin Game 3. Video game 4 is currently up in the air since of Greinkes arm pain. Video game 5? Who knows. Javiers role is uncertain however he will be a consider the series one way or the other.
