As kept in mind on the Friday Pick Six Podcast, we saw a spike in holding calls, up nearly a complete holding flag per video game from the week prior. That does not look like a huge number, but it matters a lot– when you start calling more holding, you significantly reduce scoring and you drag out video games.
Will we see another boost today? Or will the NFL continue to emphasis scoring? At some time theres going to be a bottom dropping out of this over party, but I dont QUITE think its going to be today (I could be wrong, my choices have not been spot on the last few weeks). I think we see a lot of scoring and a number of upsets..
Without more ado, all of my bets of the week:.
Chicago (4-1) at Carolina (3-2).
1 p.m. ET (Fox) Point spread: Panthers, -2.5.
I really do not love this video game from a betting perspective, however, I have chosen to take a new angle with the Bears and their fans this season. Rather of picking them to lose 24-3 every week and hearing crap from them when they win, Im going to pull a triple-level troll move here and begin picking them to win each week. Yes, I will be sacrificing my individual ATS record in the hopes that the Bears lose every game moving on. Lets get hot!.
The Pick: Bears 17, Panthers 16.
Baltimore (4-1) at Philadelphia (1-2-1).
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Ravens -7.5.
For a hot minute there, I was leaning bailing on my “Carson Wentz shocks the world with a backdoor cover” … and I chose to eventually do it. The Ravens are simply a much better team and they are not scared to blow out a bad team. We havent seen a NOVA game from Lamar Jackson yet and I believe we get one this week. He and Marquise Brown hook up for a couple of scores on a porous Eagles defense and Lamar runs for another couple himself..
The Pick: Titans 31, Texans 24.
The Pick: Ravens 41, Eagles 17.
Atlanta (0-5) at Minnesota (1-4).
1 p.m. ET (Fox) Point spread: Vikings -4.
Anyone who reads my choices columns over the years understands Im a huge fan of the Dead Cat Bounce. If you dont understand what it indicates, basically it includes a group firing its coach and after that playing well the following week. Gamers have actually acknowledged this is a thing (Brady Quinn discussed how everybody cranks up the energy a notch when the coach is canned since you recognize everybodys task is on the line) and it shows up pretty well in the stat line and the outcomes. We saw the Texans take care of company versus the Jags recently after Bill OBrien was fired. I believe the Falcons will do something comparable and try to air it out against a permeable Vikings defense. Matt Ryan will be miffed at Arthur Blanks comments and looking to show something. Special day for him, Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
The Pick: Falcons 35, Vikings 28.
Cleveland (4-1) at Pittsburgh (4-0).
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Steelers -3.5.
Truly, actually, truly wish to select the Browns here. I think theyre legitimate at 4-1– the very first time given that 1994– however the specific situations surrounding this video game have me a little alarmed. We dont understand if Odell Beckham is going to play, after the star pass receiver was sent home with a health problem on Thursday. Baker Mayfield ought to be great to go, but hes banged up this week. The Steelers havent ever lost to Cleveland in your home under Mike Tomlin. Ben Roethlisberger LIGHTS UP the Browns due to the fact that they passed on him in 2004 and he still has a chip on his shoulder. But you know what? I dont care. Im here to LIVE. Offer me Cleveland. Love the over in this game too, too..
The Pick: Browns 31, Steelers 28.
Houston (1-4) at Tennessee (4-0).
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Titans -3.
Im never questioning Mike Vrabels group once again. What an excellent effort versus Buffalo with no practice. He went Full Belichick and persuaded his team to get encouraged by messing up the COVID procedures. It worked and Tennessee looked terrific against Buffalo. They used a formula– dropping back in zone coverage and forcing a restless quarterback who likes to run to beat them by reading the complete field and being very aggressive into brief windows– to take out Josh Allen. We saw the Vikings do the same thing against Deshaun Watson and it worked effectively. I believe well see a repeat today and the Titans can win this video game. I love the over 53 here too, however if you go that route you need Watson to lob up points late, which Allen and Buffalo did not do.
1 p.m. ET (Fox) Point spread: Giants -2.5.
Im not going to overcomplicate matters here: the Giants ought to not be preferred in any football video game right now..
The Pick: Washington 17, Giants 14.
Cincinnati (1-3-1) at Indianapolis (3-2).
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Indianapolis -8.
Made a significant mistake assuming Joe Burrow might storm through the backdoor against the Ravens and their defense. I believe Indy will be different– their defense is good, however they want to let groups hang around by not liquidating at a loss zone and playing prevent/melting clock in the 2nd half. That should suffice to let Joe Burrow sneak through the backdoor getting more than a touchdown. If Darius Leonard doesnt play, I like Joe Mixons prop overs and using him in DFS. I love Jonathan Taylor props in any case. Breakout video game coming for him.
The Pick: Colts 21, Bengals 14.
Denver (1-3) at New England (2-2).
1 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Steelers -9.5.
There are simply about 20 quarterbacks under the age of 25 who have actually ever won a football game– home or away– versus Bill Belichick over the 20 years. With Cam Newton back and Damien Harris emerging, we might definitely see this video game end up being a low-scoring slog with a late protective rating by New England.
The Pick: Patriots 28, Broncos 14.
Detroit (1-3) at Jacksonville (1-4).
1 p.m. ET (Fox) Point spread: Lions -3.
The Lions are much better than 1-3, are coming off a bye, have an excellent passing offense and are betting the worst defense in football. The Jaguars cant stop anybody and do not have a lot of efficiency when it pertains to their red zone efficiency and/or their kicking game. Gardner Minshew should be able to pass in this game– the Lions arent great on defense either– but Ill take the much better quarterback and the much better group here laying the points. If Matt Patricia blows another double-digit lead he might be looking for a job.
The Pick: Lions 35, Jaguars 31.
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) Point spread: Dolphins -8.
Once again, not going to overcomplicate things here: I will not be betting on the combination of the Jets and Adam Gase ever once again, specifically as long as theyre trotting out Joe Flacco and Frank Gore..
The Pick: Dolphins 24, Jets 13.
Green Bay (4-0) at Tampa Bay (3-2).
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox) Point spread: Packers -1.
Exceptional late game between Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. The Packers are probably the much better group here, but this is sort of a desperation video game for the Buccaneers, who would fall to 3-3 after losing to the Bears last week. I am extremely interested to see how the Tampa run defense reacts to the loss of Vita Vea.
The Pick: Buccaneers 28, Packers 24.
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) Point spread: 49ers +3.5.
Sort of like the Philly video game, Im going to purchase as low as possible on a pet here. The 49ers are a group no one desires anything to do with. They just lost to the Dolphins in dreadful style at home. The Rams are playing well and everybody will be on them. Offer me Jimmy Garoppolo in a bounceback/buy-low area, in addition to the 49ers hurrying attack and a huge stage for George Kittle. Kyle Shanahan isnt going to simply lie down and get steamrolled in your home once again, specifically in a huge division video game versus a rival with the 49ers frantically needing to get a win with key department games looming. Theyll hang close or win outright.
The Pick: 49ers 24, Rams 21.
Kansas City (4-1) at Buffalo (4-1).
5 p.m. ET (NFLN) Point spread: Chiefs -3.5.
They ought to be able to do it against the Bills here– I am a little worried they could give up shot plays to Stefon Diggs as they did to Henry Ruggs and Nelson Agholar for Las Vegas last week, but I believe Steve Spagnuolo can prepare up a defense to slow down Buffalo. The Pick: Chiefs 35, Bills 28.
Cardinals (3-2) at Dallas (2-3).
8:20 p.m. ET (ESPN) Point spread: Cardinals -1.5.
I actually think Dalton will play well in this spot, with Chandler Jones out for the Cardinals and the weapons he has at his disposal. The Cowboys are dealing with significant offending line issues and Dalton without defense is a problem.
Instead of choosing them to lose 24-3 every week and hearing crap from them when they win, Im going to pull a triple-level giant relocation here and begin selecting them to win every week. We have not seen a NOVA game from Lamar Jackson yet and I think we get one this week. I think well see a repeat this week and the Titans can win this video game. The Packers are probably the much better team here, however this is sort of a desperation video game for the Buccaneers, who would fall to 3-3 after losing to the Bears last week. Kyle Shanahan isnt going to just lie down and get steamrolled at home once again, especially in a huge division game against a rival with the 49ers frantically requiring to pick up a win with crucial division video games looming.
The Pick: Cardinals 28, Cowboys 21.
