Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We are deep in the NFL season, and that’s something we should be thankful for in the current climate. We should also be thankful for a few more things. Namely the freedom to rank Thanksgiving dishes. If you like the opinions, feel free to subscribe to more fantastic content on the Pick Six Podcast. In the meantime, let’s rank things.
Top Thanksgiving Desserts: 1) Pumpkin Pie 2) Carrot Cake 3) Sweet Potato Pie
Top Thanksgiving Sides: 1) Stuffing 2) Green Bean Casserole 3) Mac/Cheese
Top Thanksgiving Idea No One Has Had But They Should: 1) Taking Chick-Fil-A nugget crumbs and turning it into a crust for a mac/cheese casserole, you can thank me later.
In all seriousness, I hope everyone has a safe Thanksgiving, I hope it’s full of seeing your family safely while eating stuffing and someone finds a way to make this CFA mac dish happen.
Let’s get to some picks.
Houston (3-7) at Detroit (4-6)
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
You’re reading this on Thursday morning. I wrote this on Wednesday night. There’s probably a three-hour window in which you can make a decision on this game. I think I am taking the Lions here, but I really, really don’t like it. I hate it, in fact. Everything about the Texans is better. Except it appears D’Andre Swift is going to play and I don’t count out Kenny Golladay until he’s ruled out. If Golladay plays, I will take Detroit +3 as a best bet. I will also take Golladay to score a TD as a best bet. If Swift plays, I love his over rush yards. I kind of like Adrian Peterson over rush yards if he doesn’t. But I can’t tell you on either before a noon Thursday game. Do the smart thing and just watch this out of the corner of your eye while shoving stuffing into your mouth. I strongly lean under here too, because the Texans don’t get cranked up against bad opponents. They’re like the Panthers in that sense. The only thing I absolutely LOVE in this game? Will Fuller over receiving yards, up to 77.
The Pick: Lions 24, Texans 21
Best Bets: Under 51, Will Fuller over 74.5 receiving yards, Kenny Golladay scores TD (if he plays), D’Andre Swift over rush yards (if he plays)
Washington (3-7) at Dallas (3-7)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)
It’s preposterous how much credit Dallas is getting right now. They played the Steelers hard with gimmick plays and beat the very bad Vikings defense (despite giving up TONS of offense to Minny, who isn’t that great). This game sets up, to me, for an Antonio Gibson breakout game. I think he runs wild against Dallas, goes for 100 + a TD and Washington’s defense puts the screws on Andy Dalton. It’s a big “prime time” game with a great defensive line coming after Dalton. You can back Dallas if you want. I won’t.
The Pick: Washington 34, Dallas 31
Best Bets: Antonio Gibson over rush yards 57.5, WFT’s +3, WFT’s ML
What picks can you make with confidence this week? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are covering in more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,800 on its top-rated picks.
Baltimore (6-4) at Pittsburgh (10-0)
Sunday, 1:15 p.m. ET (NBC)
So this game should probably happen, at 1:15 ET on NBC on Sunday. Which is definitely a “first time” situation for everyone involved, so welcome to 2020. I don’t know what you do with this game, honestly. The Ravens need it bad, but they’re shorthanded. The Steelers aren’t as good as their record but they’re better than the credit they get. There’s also a decent chance this game doesn’t happen so I’m going to pass on everything here. Sorry!
The Pick: Steelers 21, Ravens 17
Best Bets: N/A
L.A. Chargers (3-7) at Buffalo (7-3)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bills are definitely good, but should they be this big a favorite over the Chargers, a team that just doesn’t win or lose games by more than a touchdown? Probably not. Neither of these teams is that good on defense and the weather looks great in Buffalo. Maybe it’s cold and Justin Hebert doesn’t like that?? I don’t know — I think this game is going way over. Way over. Love this game for DFS and love this game for alpha wide receivers. Keenan Allen’s target share is outrageous and Stephon Diggs is just torching defenses. Give me the over and give me the points.
The Pick: Bills 35, Chargers 31
Best Bets: Over 53.5, Chargers +5.5, Keenan Allen over receptions (up to 9), Stefon Diggs over yards (up to 85.5)
Tennessee (7-3) at Indianapolis (7-3)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This is the AFC South title game. That’s all there is to it. The winner is mostly in control of the division. If Tennessee loses they’re probably a wild card. That and Philip Rivers‘ heel make me a little nervous about taking the Colts, even though I think they’re the better team. Here’s the legit move: just take the Colts in the second half of this game. They’re killing teams lately in the second half, mostly because Matt Eberflus is a genius and makes fantastic adjustments. Green Bay had nothing last week and he almost skunked Tennessee the week before. I like Jonathan Taylor overs and A.J. Brown overs as well.
The Pick: Colts 31, Titans 27
Best Bets: Colts 2H (blind)
Arizona (6-4) at New England (4-6)
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Latest Odds:
Cardinals
-2.5
Imagine traveling back in time, oh, I don’t know, SIX MONTHS and telling someone that Kliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals would be touchdown favorites against Bill Belichick and the Patriots in Foxborough. Unprecedented times, indeed. I think Arizona could roll here, but they don’t like to close teams out and win big. New England stays in this one, and Kliff will be nervous about the game. Everything here screams conservative. Take the under for a couple units.
The Pick: Cardinals 24, Patriots 21
Best Bets: Under 49 (2u)
Cleveland (7-3) at Jacksonville (1-9)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
No one loves Mike Glennon SZN more than yours truly. Glennon is underrated! And he’s definitely 700 times better than Jake Luton. The Jags can win this game. Cleveland is operating a game manager system with Baker Mayfield and leaning on the run. Jacksonville isn’t good. But they’ll keep it close here and James Robinson will have a monster game. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt might go off too – the under is definitely a play in this spot, but I’d rather back the Jags and Robinson overs in both the rushing and receiving game.
The Pick: Jaguars 21, Browns 20
Best Bets: James Robinson over rush yards (anything over 75.5), James Robinson over receptions (blind anything). Kareem Hunt anytime TD (TBD odds)
Las Vegas (6-4) at Atlanta (3-7)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
This line isn’t high enough. And neither is the over/under, assuming that Julio Jones plays. If Julio is in the lineup, we’re getting 60 points inside the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta can’t stop anyone, the Raiders pass rush isn’t that great and both teams will push the ball downfield when they’re not trying to force feed the running backs they invested in. We may be sleeping on the free money that is Darren Waller‘s catches. He’s on pace for 132 targets as a tight end. Let’s ride this thing all the way down.
The Pick: Raiders 38, Falcons 31
Best Bets: Darren Waller over receptions (anything over 7.5), Over 55, Raiders -3
Carolina (4-7) at Minnesota (4-6)
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Latest Odds:
Vikings
-3.5
Would lean towards this over too, because the Vikings can’t stop anyone and the Panthers have legit passing weapons. It’s also a Teddy Bridgwater revenge game. He was a first-round pick for Minny, blew his knee out and they dumped him for Case Keenum. I like the narrative that it “doesn’t matter” but it definitely does! You think Teddy doesn’t care more about this game than the last week? Get out. I bet Joe Brady cooks up a nice scheme for him and I would guess he goes over his passing total. Neither team plays defense despite their reputation, so take the full game over. I’ll take the Panthers with the points too. More importantly though — the free bet of the week, AKA Dalvin Cook over rush yards. He’s hit it the last five weeks and he’s going to hit it here barring injury. I would need to see something in the range of 125 to take the under.
The Pick: Panthers 34, Vikings 31
Best Bets: Dalvin Cook over rush yards (anything less than 125) (3u), Teddy Bridgewater over pass yards (255 or less)
N.Y. Giants (3-7) at Cincinnati (2-7-1)
1 p.m. ET (FOX)
You just can’t bet on this game. The total is a good number and you’re taking Daniel Jones as a touchdown favorite on the road? No thanks. Having said that, if I have to pick, give me the Giants and the under. Cincy is toast following Joe Burrow‘s injury. And Zac Taylor’s move was to give the reins to Brandon Allen. OK!
The Pick: Giants 17, Bengals 3
Best Bets: Nope.
Miami (6-4) at N.Y. Jets (0-10)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Bad loss for the Dolph-Stans out there. Tough L against the Broncos on a five-game winning streak. Stings to see Tua benched mid-game and Ryan Fitzpatrick still lose. The important thing is … I’m still here for you. I’m backing the Dolphins until they win again. In no way could this morph into a situation like the Bears earlier this year where they lost five straight games. My terrible juju couldn’t do that to Dolphins fans. They’re the better team as far as I can tell, the Jets are terrible and the Dolphins are going to CRUISE to an easy victory and cover. 😎
The Pick: Dolphins 43, Jets 2
Best Bets: Meh/Nah, although if Fitz starts I would take the over on DeVante Parker receiving yards below 73.5
New Orleans (8-2) at Denver (4-6)
4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Rancid game here, with Taysom Hill favored by almost a touchdown on the road after he torched a terrible Falcons defense. You know who isn’t terrible? The Broncos! At least on defense anyway … I like the under here a lot and I *want* to like Denver to cover but this is where Sean Payton gets this team rolling with a backup QB who isn’t good at passing and still wins games. He gets off on it and I respect it. We legit don’t give Payton his due in the pantheon of great offensive minds in the modern era. Dude is a genius and maxes out his talent. I’m reversing my original course from the podcast and just backing the Sean Payton Revenge Tour Featuring Taysom Hill. Still like the under and a pile of under props.
The Pick: Saints 24, Broncos 14
Best Bets: Under 43.5, Taysom Hill under pass yards (blind anything), Alvin Kamara under rush/rec yards, Drew Lock under pass yards (anything)
San Francisco (4-6) at L.A. Rams (7-3)
4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)
Too many points with Kyle Shanahan coming off the bye and trying to salvage playoff hopes. You look at it and OBVIOUSLY the Rams will cover. This will somehow be close and I don’t have a great reason for it, other than Sean McVay is secretly conservative, will want to limit exposure following a BIG Monday night win and will run the heck out of the ball. The 49ers will have a bag of tricks for this game.
The Pick: Rams 24, 49ers 21
Best Bets: Nope
Kansas City (9-1) at Tampa Bay (7-4)
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Welcome to the peak Nantz-Romo Game. It’s where it belongs, with those two guys calling Mahomes-Brady. They know them better than anyone else and this game is setting up for an epic shootout. You can’t put this point total high enough, honestly. The Chiefs go under when they have to run, but they can’t run against the Bucs. Tom Brady goes low against good defenses, but the Chiefs aren’t a great defense. Brady won’t want follow up a bad game with another. He might throw to Antonio Brown 15 times in this game. Tyreek Hill‘s targets are way up (12 per game lately, almost) and we could be staring at a big-time scorefest here.
The Pick: Chiefs 42, Bucs 37
Best Bets: All of the overs (specifically: first half, full game, Antonio Brown catches and yards, Tyreek Hill catches and yards)
Chicago (5-5) at Green Bay (7-3)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Latest Odds:
Packers
-8.5
A month ago, the Bears were the top seed in the NFC. Now? They’re reeling, trying to figure out a path to the playoffs. It can still happen, obviously. But things are dire for Chicago right now. It would be really easy to take them here, because of the situation. But it’s Thanksgiving weekend, Akiem Hicks is likely out, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers dominate the Bears in general and it’s a chance for smoking these guys. I don’t love it but I’ll take Rodgers laying an enormous number. I don’t see Chicago scoring so I like the under the best. Plus Davante Adams scoring a touchdown at whatever number you can find.
The Pick: Packers 28, Bears 14
Best Bets: Under 45, Davante Adams to score/over receiving yards
Seattle (7-3) at Philadelphia (3-6-1)
8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Lot of home dogs have been covering in these spots lately. And this is the toughest one to take. Carson Wentz might just stink. The Seahawks defense is starting to play well. Russell Wilson will throw bombs against this secondary. Everything sets up to take the Eagles, honestly. Give me Philly with the points. I’ll also take Jalen Reagor over yards and anytime TD here, plus maybe first touchdown as well. It’s Monday night after Thanksgiving, let’s get weird.
The Pick: Eagles 24, Seahawks 21
Best Bets: Eagles +5, Jalen Reagor over yards/anytime TD
