The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will put the finishing touches on Week 16 when these two division rivals square up on Monday Night Football. While it’s rather common that Buffalo and New England see one another towards the end of the regular season, the situation both of these squads find themselves in isn’t. For the first time since 1995, the Bills are AFC East champions. Meanwhile, the Patriots are on the outside of the playoffs for the first time since 2008.
While the division already locked up, Buffalo still has plenty of motivation heading into this matchup with New England as they can bump up to the No. 2 seed in the conference with a win. At 12-3, they’d be locked even with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but own the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to a win earlier this season. If they were to win tonight, all they would need is a Week 17 win against Miami or a Pittsburgh loss against Cleveland to secure the second seed in the AFC. Of course, this year, only one team gets a first-round bye, but gaining a bit more home-field advantage is beneficial. As for the Patriots, they’re simply playing for pride at this point in the year.
Here, we’re going to get into all the different betting angles that this divisional matchup has to offer, including the spread, total, and give you a few of our favorite player props. We’ll also dive into the weeds and see how the lines have shifted leading up to Monday’s contest to see which way the winds are blowing as it relates to what the public thinks of this head-to-head. All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Dec. 28 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Bills (11-3) at Patriots (6-8)
The Bills opened as a 6.5-point favorite in this matchup and that advantage has only increased since. Early last week, it bumped up a half-point to get to Buffalo -7 and that has held true through Monday morning. Under Bill Belichick (since 2000), the Patriots have never been a home underdog against Buffalo. The last time it happened came back in 1999 and this time around is the most points New England been given against the Bills since 1993 when they were given double-digit points in both meetings. This is also the Patriots’ first divisional game as a home underdog since 2002 when they hosted the Dolphins.
With Belichick at the helm, New England is 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU as an underdog against Buffalo and 14-3 ATS as a home underdog over his tenure. Of course, most of those marks came when Tom Brady was under center, which does alter how we view these trends now that the Patriots are trotting out Cam Newton, who has struggled during his first season in New England.
Meanwhile, the Bills have covered in six-straight games, which is the longest cover streak in the NFL this season and the franchise’s longest since 2007. Josh Allen and company come into this matchup with four-straight double-digit wins. The Bills quarterback has also covered 72% of his road starts.
Projected score: Buffalo 34, New England 13
Over/Under
After opening at 45.5, this totaled has ticked up as the week progressed. It briefly dipped to 45 last Monday but shot up a full point to 46 by Tuesday. afternoon. In the hours leading up to the primetime contest on Monday morning, the total was once again on the move, jumping up a half-point to 46.5.
For New England, the Under has hit in six-straight games, which is tied for the longest streak in the NFL this year. After defeating the Chargers in a 45-0 blowout, they’ve scored just 15 points combined over their last two games. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense has been much improved over the last month, allowing just 18.7 points per game over that stretch. When you look at just the Patriots, you’d point to this game going under. However, Buffalo’s offense has been able to average over 33 points per game over the last month and are fresh off a 48-point showing against the Broncos in Denver. It’ll be close, but this game could swing Over by a hair.
Projected total: 47
Josh Allen
O/U 23.5 completions
O/U 36.5 pass attempts
O/U 279.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Over -190)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over -115)
O/U 29.5 rushing yards
Allen may not have to do too much in this game as the Patriots offense likely won’t be able to keep up with his unit for all four quarters. That said, I do like the Over on his 23.5 completions, which is a number he’s gone over in three-straight. His Over 1.5 passing touchdowns prop is also intriguing as he’s thrown for multiple scores in 11 of his 14 starts this season. New England was able to limit him to just 154 yards passing and zero touchdowns back in Week 8, but I think he turns in a strong outing against a secondary that is now without Stephon Gilmore.
Cam Newton
O/U 15.5 completions
O/U 25.5 pass attempts
O/U 167.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Over +195)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over -115)
O/U 39.5 rushing yards
O/U 8.5 rushing attempts
Even though there isn’t great value in this prop, taking the Under on Newton’s 1.5 passing touchdown prop seems like a worthwhile wager. The Patriots quarterback has yet to have a multi-touchdown game through the air this season and with the Bills defense playing better as of late, it’s hard to see that changing. As is typically the case for Newton, his best prop is anytime touchdown at -110. When New England gets into the red zone, they won’t be afraid to utilize Newton’s legs.
Other props to consider
Zack Moss total rushing yards: Over. 43.5 (-120). New England’s run defense is poor and Moss has seen back-to-back games with double-digit carries for Buffalo. This matchup fits him perfectly and he’ll look to have a repeat performance against this front seven after totaling 81 yards and two touchdowns on them back in Week 8.
Cole Beasley total receptions: Over 4.5 (+105). Beasley has gone into one of Josh Allen’s more reliable targets and has seen double-digit looks from the QB in four of his last five games. Over that stretch, the veteran receiver is averaging seven catches per game. With Gilmore changing the pecking order in New England’s secondary, Beasley should be able to find openings.
Damiere Byrd total receiving yards: Over 38.5 (-115). I expect the Patriots to be trailing in this game, which will force Cam Newton to throw more than the Patriots are comfortable with. While I want to shy away from Jakobi Meyers because he may be covered by Pro Bowl corner Tre’Davious White, Byrd’s receiving total is doable here. He barely went over this total in New England’s previous matchup with Buffalo and has averaged six targets per game since Week 11, which gives him plenty of opportunities to go over.
