The Buffalo Bills clinched a spot in the playoffs after winning the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and can be the conference’s No. 2 or No. 3 seed.
To claim the two seed, Buffalo simply needs to defeat the Miami Dolphins on Sunday or have the Pittsburgh Steelers lose to the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh is resting Ben Roethlisberger in Week 17 so the team does not seem overly concerned with leapfrogging Buffalo for the two seed. That said, upsets happen almost every week in the NFL and a few could occur on the final weekend of regular season play.
Heading into Week 17, the question on the minds of the Bills Mafia is who will Buffalo face next weekend on Wild Card weekend? Will it be a third matchup with the Dolphins, a rematch against the Titans or a game against the likes of the Browns, Ravens or Colts? Deniz Selman shared a playoff scenario chart on Twitter breaking down every possible matchup.
Technically, there are 32 total outcomes that could occur on Sunday among possible AFC playoff teams–not including ties–but some outcomes in games would have no bearing on Buffalo’s Wild Card opponent in certain scenarios.
Keeping this in mind, here’s a look at each team the Bills could face on Wild Card weekend and how the games in Week 17 would have to unfold.
Indianapolis Colts (3 scenarios)
Scenario 1: Bills defeat Dolphins, Ravens defeat Bengals, Browns defeat Steelers, Titans defeat Texans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 2: Dolphins defeat Bills, Bengals defeat Ravens, Browns defeat Steelers, Titans defeat Texans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 3: Dolphins defeat Bills, Bengals defeat Ravens, Steelers defeat Browns, Titans defeat Texans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Quick thoughts: In the first two scenarios, Buffalo is the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Although there are just three scenarios where the Bills would meet up with the Colts on Wild Card Weekend, the first scenario seems plausible if Buffalo can defeat Miami.
Tennessee Titans (3 scenarios)
Scenario 1: Bills defeat Dolphins, Ravens defeat Bengals, Browns defeat Steelers, Texans defeat Titans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 2: Dolphins defeat Bills, Bengals defeat Ravens, Browns defeat Steelers, Texans defeat Titans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 3: Dolphins defeat Bills, Bengals defeat Ravens, Steelers defeat Browns, Texans defeat Titans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Quick thoughts: The Titans are one of the three teams who have defeated Buffalo this season. Tennessee defeated Buffalo decisively in their first matchup, but there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding the game due to Tennessee’s COVID-19 issues. Josh Allen was also playing with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder in this matchup.
The Titans need to fall to the Texans for this matchup to play out on Wild Card weekend.
In the first two scenarios, Buffalo is the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
Miami Dolphins (5 scenarios)
Scenario 1: Bills defeat Dolphins, Ravens defeat Bengals, Browns defeat Steelers, Jaguars defeat Colts
Scenario 2: Bills defeat Dolphins, Ravens defeat Bengals, Steelers defeat Browns, Titans defeat Texans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 3: Bills defeat Dolphins, Ravens defeat Bengals, Steelers defeat Browns, Texans defeat Titans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 4: Bills defeat Dolphins, Bengals defeat Ravens, Browns defeat Steelers, Titans defeat Texans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 5: Bills defeat Dolphins, Bengals defeat Ravens, Browns defeat Steelers, Texans defeat Titans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Quick thoughts: If fans are hoping for Buffalo to get the Dolphins on Wild Card Weekend, the Bills need to win against Miami in Week 17.
Cleveland Browns (5 scenarios)
Scenario 1: Bills defeat Dolphins, Ravens defeat Bengals, Steelers defeat Browns, Jaguars defeat Colts
Scenario 2: Bills defeat Dolphins, Bengals defeat Ravens, Steelers defeat Browns, Jaguars defeat Colts
Scenario 3: Dolphins defeat Bills, Ravens defeat Bengals, Browns defeat Steelers, Titans defeat Texans
Scenario 4: Dolphins defeat Bills, Ravens defeat Bengals, Browns defeat Steelers, Texans defeat Titans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 5: Dolphins defeat Bills, Ravens defeat Bengals, Browns defeat Steelers, Jaguars defeat Colts
Quick thoughts: Buffalo can only play the Browns if they are the AFC’s No. 2 seed. Among the scenarios, number three may be the one to watch on Sunday. If Buffalo falls to Miami, the other outcomes listed in that scenario would not be considered as upsets.
Baltimore Ravens (7 scenarios)
Scenario 1: Bills defeat Dolphins, Bengals defeat Ravens, Browns defeat Steelers, Jaguars defeat Colts
Scenario 2: Bills defeat Dolphins, Bengals defeat Ravens, Steelers defeat Browns, Titans defeat Texans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 3: Bills defeat Dolphins, Bengals defeat Ravens, Steelers defeat Browns, Texans defeat Titans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 4: Dolphins defeat Bills, Bengals defeat Ravens, Browns defeat Steelers, Jaguars defeat Colts
Scenario 5: Dolphins defeat Bills, Ravens defeat Bengals, Steelers defeat Browns, Titans defeat Texans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 6: Dolphins defeat Bills, Ravens defeat Bengals, Steelers defeat Browns, Texans defeat Titans, Colts defeat Jaguars
Scenario 7: Dolphins defeat Bills, Steelers defeat Browns, Jaguars defeat Colts
Quick thoughts: Buffalo could play the Ravens if they win or lose in Week 17, but their odds are greater following a loss to the Dolphins. Baltimore enters Week 17 on a four game win streak and has plenty to play for against the Bengals. Considering four of these scenarios involve Cincinnati defeating Baltimore and a few have the Jaguars knocking off the Colts, there is a decent chance that the Bills do not see the Ravens on Wild Card Weekend. Scenario five and six would be the most likely paths for a Bills-Ravens matchup.
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