Remarkably, heading into the final week of the NFL regular season, the New York Giants (5-10) remain in contention for the NFC East title and the no. 3 overall pick in the 2021 draft.
The Giants will play host to the Dallas Cowboys (6-9) at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. Despite the tumultuous 2020 campaign for Dallas, Mike McCarthy’s group will be gunning for an improbable NFC East crown, too.
New York opened the week as 2.5-point underdogs at home, though the line has since moved to New York for +1.5.
That movement is a product of the recent play of both squads. Joe Judge’s team is riding a dispiriting three-game losing streak, falling to the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens.
Dallas has won three in a row, albeit against weaker competition, especially at quarterback. The Cowboys have defeated Brandon Allen and the Cincinnati Bengals, Nick Mullens and the San Francisco 49ers, and the Philadelphia Eagles in Jalen Hurts’ second career start.
Dallas took the first matchup, 37-34, in Week 5 at AT&T Stadium. Both teams scored a defensive touchdown and Dak Prescott was injured during the game.
Shockingly, the Giants haven’t beaten the Cowboys since 2016.
Let’s take a closer look at this surprisingly pivotal Week 17 matchup and make a few foolish predictions.
1) The Giants will get to Andy Dalton
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The Giants defense (ranked no. 10) is stronger against the pass than the run, so it’s safe to say they’ll make Andy Dalton uncomfortable throughout the afternoon.
New York’s D has regressed amid the losing streak, but they’ve faced off against Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson–all competing for playoff positioning.
Yes, Dallas has protected Dalton better over the past few weeks, allowing him to throw seven touchdowns and one interception during their win streak. His trio of receivers, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper, have been hot, too.
However, New York has the coverage to match. With that said, expect the Giants’ secondary–safeties Jabrill Peppers and Logan Ryan, along with cornerbacks James Bradberry and Isaac Yiadom–to give their pass rush some opportunities to rattle the red rocket.
2) The Giants will control the game on the ground
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Dallas has one of the most generous run defenses in football. They’ve allowed 2,416 yards rushing in 2020, the second-most in team history (ESPN). Overall, the Cowboys have surrendered a league-worst 161 yards per game this season. They’ve improved in recent weeks, but not substantially.
They had one of their best performances against New York in Week 5 (89 yards), but that won’t be repeated, especially without linebacker Leighton Vander Esch.
The Giants have struggled on the ground since Week 13, but that trend will likely come to an end on Sunday. Look for offensive coordinator Jason Garrett to ride Wayne Gallman Jr. (along with Alfred Morris and Dion Lewis) to keep the game low-scoring as they control the clock.
Gallman leads New York with 617 rushing yards, and he should see space against Dallas. Plus, the Giants are not build to erase deficits and play from behind.
Furthermore, the Cowboys defense has done a much better job forcing turnovers as of late (10 in three games), and Giants QB Daniel Jones is still recovering from hamstring and ankle injuries.
Jones is the Giants’ second-leading rusher, but he has taken off running just once in the last two games. Before that, he had been averaging 7.3 yards per rush.
Speaking to the media on Wednesday, Jones admitted to not being 100 percent, and he made a point to hint that he won’t look to run the ball from the pocket. Hmm…classic gamesmanship, or an honest assessment of his limitations?
The Giants have been sacked 12 times over the past two weeks, and the team’s struggling O-Line faces a tough matchup with the Dallas trio of DeMarcus Lawrence, Randy Gregory, and Aldon Smith.
All things considered, Garrett will be extra-cautious with his QB and offensive line and let the backfield do the heavy lifting. When he isn’t handing the ball off, expect Jones to hit Evan Engram, Darius Slayton, and Sterling Shepard on quick, high-percentage throws.
3) Logic will not be a factor
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There is no reason the Cowboys should lose this game. They are in better form and have more talent.
The New York offense has failed to hit 20 points in each of the last five games, and they’ve scored 26 total points over the past three weeks. New York is ranked 31st overall and its 257 points are the second-fewest in the NFL. The Cowboys are averaging 36 points per game during that span.
But…
This is a must-win, pseudo-playoff game for two divisional rivals who know each other well. Generally, both squads are evenly matched, and it’s hard to imagine this one not being decided by a controversial call, a tipped pass, or a special teams play in the fourth quarter.
This has been a cursed season for Dallas since training camp, and that comes to a head in East Rutherford.
On that note…
4) The Giants will make history
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New York, Dallas, and the Washington Football Team remain in the running for the division. Here’s the breakdown (excluding a couple of multi-tie scenarios) entering Week 17:
- Dallas clinches with a win over New York and a Washington loss or tie.
- New York clinches with a win and a Washington loss.
- Washington clinches with a win.
In other words: the winner of this game will make the playoffs if Washington loses to Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football.
The recent play of both teams will be proven to be heavily scheduled-based, and McCarthy will make at least one major clock error. His team’s playoff hopes will be dashed by … Jason Garrett.
Later on, the Eagles will spoiler Washington’s postseason hopes, and the Giants will become the first six-win playoff team in NFL history, resulting in a Wild Card matchup against—who else?— Tom Brady.
