Sure, the Matt Stafford blockbuster came together quickly and smoothly. But don’t get fooled. The rest of the quarterback market will be more of a slow slog, with ownership and management groups in Houston and Green Bay yet to come to grips with all that might await them, and other teams interested in those quarterbacks stuck with their own current starters in the meantime.
There will be ripples – more like waves – of transactions at the most important position in all of professional sports throughout the offseason. Any move will have corollaries to it – call it trickle-down tradenomics, if you will: Deshaun Watson going to, say, the Jets, begetting an inevitable move of Sam Darnold to somewhere like, say, the 49ers, who then would be moving Jimmy Garoppolo elsewhere.
And that’s just the first tier, that very well could still include Aaron Rodgers as well, lest the Packers placate him both financially and in terms of putting together/retaining a roster he deems to be truly Super Bowl worthy. Sorting through Watson’s situation and monitoring Rodgers – as so many teams are – will take some time, and not all teams will be willing to wait in the end. But some surely will.
As long as there are standoffs at the top of the market, life could get even more complicated for guys such as Cam Newton, Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton – who already had to deal with unique pandemic-market forces a year ago as they eventually found new homes. That’s quite likely to be the case again in 2021.
Then there is the unusual evaluation process for this class of college quarterbacks, some of whom barely played and none of whom teams have been able to get time with as they normally would in-season, or out of it. The combine is vastly different, trips to be wined and dined at team facilities are out and Pro Days are altered as well. Fewer scouts and execs on the ground. Less info than normal. Even more projections than normal (better have a top analytics staff).
That all complicates matters, but in the end expect at least five passers to go in the first round and possibly four in the top 10; some of those teams that end up selecting a QB that high will have been among those who already were in on Stafford, Watson, et al. Fret not … this is going to be another wacky year of quarterback activity. It just is going to require more patience than that Stafford/Goff swap required.
Dolphins‘ curious co-coordinators move
The Dolphins coaching staff remains something to keep an eye on. The constant turnover at critical spots – particularly on the offensive staff – has been less than optimal and promoting two co-offensive coordinators from within seems ripe for potential discord as well.
Brian Flores has done a lot of very good stuff laying a foundation in Miami, and the team is headed in the right direction overall, but the tendency to tinker and try a little too hard is difficult to miss. Whether it’s a New England thing or not, at some point more stability is in order, particularly if they truly do want to build around Tua or some other young QB to be grabbed later. And if they do want to get in the Deshaun Watson rodeo, as so many have suggested they might, promoting former Bill O’Brien assistant and defrocked play-caller George Godsey is a strange way to go about it. That might be a deal-breaker for a QB with a no-trade clause and ample leverage.
Jags to covet Ravens defenders
Keep an eye on the Jacksonville Jaguars plucking multiple Ravens in free agency. Their new defense, led by former Ravens assistant Joe Cullen as their new coordinator, is going to prize many of the same body types and characteristics that worked for Wink Martindale so well in Baltimore.
Only Jacksonville has oodles of cap space and that owner is prepared to spend big for new coach Urban Meyer and it will be hard for the Ravens to compete to keep many (any?) of their bounty of edge defenders who are not under contract for next season. That’s a diverse list led by Matt Judon, who played on the franchise tag in 2020 and is an uber-versatile defender. Tyus Bowser was among the NFL league leaders in interceptions by a linebacker. He has a nice get-home rate on pressures/drop backs and he is stout enough setting the edge and is just 25 years old with upside; some believe he could land in the $10M-a- year range if not more.
Pernell McPhee and Jihad Ward were great low-cost, one-year fits for the Ravens, but they may see action from the Jags as well. One edge guy who won’t be headed to Jacksonville is former Jags franchise player Yannick Ngakoue, who struggled in Baltimore and left $6M on the table just to get out of Jacksonville before the season.
Free agents facing uncertain market
There is far less early-February intel on the upcoming free agent market this year for a multitude of reasons. For starters, no one knows what the cap is going to be, with estimates from experts ranging from $195M-$175M, obviously a huge chasm. That has put a pause on the market for the most part, tampering is at a minimum, and with the combine essentially a virtual event in 2021, that further constrains the normal modes of pre-free agency flirtations.
Plenty of agents and execs I’ve chatted with believe we could see a far slower roll-out to the paydays than normal. Sure, there have been and will be more trades completed in advance of the start of the league year. Those are largely fixed costs. But tabbing the exact sweet spot of certain players in free agency is more difficult than ever, with projections about even top-of-the-line players fluctuating depending on who you talk to.
