Photo by UK Athletics
At 8-13, if you turn your head and squint your eyes a little, maybe Kentucky’s resume isn’t so bad after all.
Kentucky is officially inside the field of 64 as far as NET rankings go for the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, that doesn’t mean Kentucky gets in the tournament if they’re inside of the 64 teams in the NET ranking, but it is significant.
Now, I’m not going to sit here and act like an analytic genius and tell you everything you need to know about the NET rankings and how it works because I’m not sure anybody really knows. However, the NET ranking is the metric the Selection Committee bases their seeding off of in the NCAA Tournament. It focuses on “net efficiency”, the team value index, adjusted win percentage, and all this other stuff that completely goes over my head.
But I think we all know that quadrant wins are important, and that is something that has vaulted Kentucky from 77th in NET rankings all the way to 64th. Kentucky is 3-9 in Quadrant 1 games and while that seems like a not-so-good record to have, the Wildcats actually have more Quadrant 1 wins than Louisville, Duke, and North Carolina combined.
Kentucky currently has more Quadrant 1 wins, yes 8-13 Kentucky, than Louisville, UNC and Duke… combined.
— Tres Terrell (@TerrellTres) February 21, 2021
Kentucky also has as many or more quadrant 1 wins as Villanova, Houston, Virginia, Florida, and Texas. All teams that will likely make the tournament.
It’s also worth noting Kentucky has only played (and won) two games in Quadrants 3 and 4, so maybe Kentucky will get a little bit of grace when it comes to comparing resumes.
According to barttorvik.com, a website that primarily compares tournament resumes and a team’s overall body of work, they list Kentucky as having the 28th best resume in college basketball this season. Unfortunately, using algorithms that compare resumes to past teams, Kentucky’s current body of work aligns with teams that have all missed the tournament in years prior.
The optimistic approach here is that this year is clearly much different than any other year, which may skew the numbers a bit when it comes to comparing bubble teams from years prior.
Obviously, it’s hard to argue that an 8-13 team should be in over anyone in the NCAA Tournament, but there at least seems to be a small-window where Kentucky squeaks into the big dance without winning the SEC Tournament.
I think it’s paramount they get to the Championship regardless, but this Kentucky team is hot right now. If they thump Florida and Ole Miss, take care of business in their make-up games, maybe Kentucky can get in with an at-large bid if they lose in the SEC Tournament Championship Game.
Unfortunately, Kentucky still isn’t on anyone’s bubble in Bracketology, and maybe I’m reaching for thin air. But, at the very least, the chances are better today than they were 48 hours ago.
