Quarterback Sam Darnold’s future with the New York Jets is in jeopardy after three uninspiring years with the team. Former 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh is now their head coach after Adam Gase’s removal from that post, and NewYork holds the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft. Trading Darnold as he enters the final year of his rookie deal and using the second pick on a quarterback seems like the course of action the Jets may follow as they aim to get back on track under Saleh. The 49ers shouldn’t be eyeing Darnold as a starter, but they could conceivably aim to add him with a long-term future under center in mind.
Darnold, 23, wouldn’t be an immediate upgrade over Jimmy Garoppolo. He’s been less than stellar in three years as a starter and there’s evidence in his play that says it may not have solely been the abysmal roster and Gase’s leadership that kept the former No. 3 overall pick from succeeding.
However, if head coach Kyle Shanahan believes in Darnold’s future, it might be worth it to unload a draft pick to acquire him depending on the compensation the Jets would be seeking. Shanahan before the 49ers’ Week 2 game against the Jets heaped praise on the young QB.
“I’ve watched him a lot whether it was college or last week’s game,” Shanahan said via the Jets’ team site. “I’m a big fan of Sam’s. He’s a very good player. He’s going to have a very good career in this league. He makes a lot of plays. If you’re not on your stuff, if you let him get comfortable back there, he’ll pick you apart as good as any quarterback. He can throw it very well and he sees the field extremely well. We have to make sure not to let him get comfortable because when he does, he’ll show everyone why he’s that good.”
Perhaps that was just coach-speak about an opponent, but let’s take it at face value for a moment.
The 49ers need to upgrade their backup quarterback situation and at the same time start looking toward life after Garoppolo. Barring a bounce-back season from him the team will likely be on the hunt for a new franchise signal caller.
Darnold may not be that, but if the price comes in lower than the rumored second-round pick the Jets are seeking and San Francisco can finagle him away for an early Day 3 choice, a longer-term plan starts coming together.
If Shanahan likes Darnold, there’s a strong chance he’ll like him more than a player they’d draft in Round 4 or 5. Darnold has one year left on his rookie deal that would come with a $4.7 million cap hit for the 49ers in 2021.
This would solve two problems. First, it gives the 49ers an upgrade over Nick Mullens at the QB2 spot, and does so for the cost of a Day 3 draft pick. Second, it gives the 49ers a full year to evaluate Darnold in practices and meetings.
There’s certainly risk involved. Darnold may just not be a good player. He’s completing 59.8 percent of his throws in his career and averaging a paltry 6.6 yards per attempt. His touchdown rate of 3.7 percent just barely outpaces his 3.2 percent interception rate.
On the other hand, he’s a talented player who may just need a new environment that’ll better utilize his skill set. For the 49ers, if Shanahan believes strongly in Darnold, it’s worth a mid-round pick to find out.
The biggest question and risk come the following year. San Francisco could exercise Darnold’s fifth-year option (assuming the trade goes down before the draft in April) with the goal of starting him in 2022. That’d give him a fully-guaranteed $25 million and a year to audition for a long-term contract.
San Francisco could also choose to try and sign him to an extension that falls well short of the top of the quarterback market in hopes of falling into a situation where they have a capable quarterback on a relatively cheap deal.
It’s a scary proposition, but the 49ers may need to take a couple of big swings to find their long-term answer under center. That does not mean trading for Darnold and starting him in 2021. Trading for him with an eye toward the future may be something Shanahan is interested in if his comments from September still ring true.
The 49ers would need a perfect situation though where they aren’t sending too much draft capital to acquire him. If they like a prospect they think they can get in the second round, they should go that route instead. But if they’re not in love with any realistic options in this year’s draft, rolling the dice on a reclamation project like Darnold should be on the table.
