The Indianapolis Colts’ trade for Carson Wentz has been generally well-received by the NFL community. In fact, some prognosticators have gone so far as to predict Wentz will return to MVP form and push the Colts into Super Bowl contention, while others simply like the price the Colts paid (a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick) for a young, high-upside player.
But, as with any move made in the NFL, there are skeptics. Among the most prominent skeptics of the Wentz trade — considering the impact on the Colts at least — has been ex-Jets general manager and former Dolphins executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum, now an ESPN front office insider.
During one recent TV appearance, Tannenbaum referred to the trade as a “desperation” move, criticizing the Colts for negotiating against themselves and surrendering a pair of high picks to acquire what he believes is “fourth-best quarterback” in the AFC South.
Not long after he made those comments, IndyStar caught up with Tannenbaum to explore the reasoning behind some of his skepticism.
Q: You’re on the record as not being thrilled with what the Colts gave up for Wentz. What didn’t you like about it?
A: I wouldn’t say that I didn’t like it. I certainly understand why they would do it. My biggest concern, moving forward, when you give up two high picks like they did, you’re fully committing that this will be your quarterback for the next decade. And there’s been a lot of inconsistencies in Carson Wentz’s play.
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Look, Frank Reich has done wonders with him, like we all know, and if he can do that again, that’s fantastic. But my point was that, at the end of the day, it looked like they were the team that was pursuing him much more so than others, and if you could have gotten him for less draft compensation, it would allow you to hedge your bets. Just from the standpoint of, if Carson Wentz doesn’t return to where he once was, you’d still have additional draft capital to pursue another quarterback.
Q: A couple of months ago on ESPN, you suggested a trade of two second-round picks for Wentz would be “reasonable draft compensation.” Do you believe that the market for Wentz had changed so much that this was no longer a wise offer?
A: Market conditions will always have to dictate what you do in terms of making decisions. Again, I think if Carson Wentz is going to be successful again, he’s in the perfect spot because I think the Colts are a well-built-team with a good offensive line. They have young skill players, Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman in particular, and obviously Frank Reich has done well with them. My point, fundamentally, is that based on market conditions, from the standpoint of the Colts: If he doesn’t get to what he once was, they don’t have as many resources to go get their next quarterback.
Q: Given your understanding of the quarterback market, do you think the Colts could have waited for a better option to emerge or hoped the Eagles would have accepted less?
A: You never know, because you don’t know what the dynamics are. And I’ve certainly been in the Colts’ situation, where you just don’t like the alternatives. And I’m sure that had to drive the value. Like, “Hey, look, if we don’t get this deal done for whatever reason, we really don’t like Plan B. Therefore, while Plan A was a little more expensive than we wish it was, we feel like paying a little more of a premium now is worth it, because the alternative really isn’t good for us.”
That impacts decision-making. It certainly did when I was a GM. You want to remain patient, but if the alternatives aren’t there — and again, I don’t know what their feelings are about Jacoby Brissett, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, but that’s clearly a factor in your decision-making in terms of what the price is you would pay for a player.
Q: You have suggested Wentz will be the worst quarterback in the AFC South. Why do you think that?
A: My point on that was assuming Deshaun Watson is still there, I think that’s a division that has three historically great quarterbacks. I’m a big fan of Ryan Tannehill. If you look at Tennessee’s rankings since he’s been there, they have the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Trevor Lawrence should be fantastic, and Deshaun Watson is a top-five player. Again, I think this was a resource sort of decision, which we’d love to get Watson, but there’s no way Houston will trade him in the division, we’re not getting Trevor Lawrence, so this is our best option. My point is for the next three to five years, if I was drafting those four quarterbacks, Wentz would be the fourth of those four.
Q: Do you think a better option for the Colts, sitting at No. 21, might have been to try to trade up in the draft and pick one of the three or four first-round quarterbacks after Lawrence? Was that a possibility?
A: The short answer: Of course it’s a possibility. But the challenge is, you also don’t want to be sitting there on May 1, and that didn’t work out and Wentz is a Chicago Bear. I think this was a situation where they paid a premium for certainty, which is certainly reasonable. But my point is, when you give up one pick for a player, versus two — especially when the second one could be a first-round pick — my point was that if Carson Wentz continues to play like he did a year ago, you’re sitting with a player you can’t win a championship with and you’re out either a first or a second next year. That’s why, if you could, you really want to try and limit it to one pick, pay the bill, then move on. That gives you flexibility on a go-forward basis.
Q: In your evaluation of Wentz, do you think a return to 2017 or even 2019 form is possible?
A: I think when you watch him, it’s clearly an issue of confidence. Just from the standpoint, you could see receivers open, and it just seemed like he really struggled to let it rip. It’s weird, because it reminds me a little of Mark Sanchez from the standpoint that Mark came out early, had a lot of success, then went backwards, whereas Wentz came from a smaller school, an FCS school, did great, then has gone backwards. That is just so unusual. It’s a very unusual pattern. Sanchez is maybe the last quarterback I can remember going backwards like that. I think for (Wentz), watching him play, it’s about confidence.
Q: But you think the best place for him to rediscover that confidence is Indianapolis with Reich?
A: Yeah. I mean it’s a combination of Frank Reich and the foundation the Colts have, which is a very strong one. … We did a segment like this on ESPN, but if there was a big winner of this trade between the Colts and Eagles, it was all of our opinions that the biggest winner was Carson Wentz. It gives him the highest possibility (chance) to have the most success possible.
Q: How would you allocate the resources the Colts have this offseason to help Wentz and build a team that can return to the playoffs?
A: Maybe an offensive lineman, one more good lineman and another pressure player on the front seven. Those, to me, are their two biggest needs. In terms of young skill players, I think there nucleus is as good as any. I think Taylor and Pittman, in particular, have really compelling upsides.
Q: What, do you believe is the best way for theColts to replace Anthony Castonzo at left tackle: via trade, free agency or the draft?
A: I think they should definitely draft one because between (Ryan) Kelly, (Braden) Smith and obviously Quenton Nelson isn’t going anywhere, and he’ll be like $22, $23, $24-million a year. So to go get Orlando Brown, to me, it just becomes a resource allocation issue. And they’ve done such a great job of drafting at that position.
Q: What are your overall impressions of the way Ballard has built the Colts over the past four years?
A: Where Chris probably doesn’t get enough credit is that what happened there is truly historic. No one really plans for a great player to retire in his prime. You just don’t plan for it. You plan for injuries on a one-year basis; you plan for Player X to graduate from a contract. Those are the things you have to plan for. What happened with Chris, I don’t know if we’ll see that in the next 20 years. The equivalent of that would be for Patrick Mahomes to say, “You know what, I’m done.” And for the (Colts) to remain competitive amid that weird dynamic, Chris deserves a ton of credit. That’s just something; that’s really impossible to plan for.”
Follow IndyStar Colts Insider Jim Ayello on Twitter: @jimayello.
