NFL free agency starts in earnest in just a few days, but around the league, teams including the Denver Broncos are cutting players in order to create cash and cap space, and with the news of the base cap being set at $182.5 million, more veterans are likely to be cap casualties.
It’s of key importance for the Broncos to have a sensible approach to free agency — one that fills major roster needs before heading into the draft, without breaking the bank. Indeed, substance, not flash or splash, should be the order of the day for GM George Paton.
It would be surprising if the Broncos are significant players in the first wave of free agency because of the team’s purported cash-flow issues, especially with the need to give recently franchise-tagged safety Justin Simmons the extension that he deserves. Doing so would create a competitive cash-flow for Denver and would get Simmons extended before other safeties such as Marcus Williams, Anthony Harris, Jamal Adams, and Derwin James get paid.
Part of the free-agency equation is the compensatory formula. Essentially, to qualify for a compensatory draft pick in 2022, the Broncos must have a ‘net loss’ of talent. While Paton has to do his own thing, he was part of that Minnesota Vikings brain trust under GM Rick Spielman that valued accumulating picks.
There are a few important considerations, however. If the Broncos decline an option or cut a player, that player will not count towards the compensatory formula as a player lost should they be signed. Conversely, signing a player that was cut or had their option declined makes sense for the Broncos, as that player will not count against the compensatory formula as a player signed.
Another consideration is that, after the draft, free-agent acquisitions won’t count towards the compensatory formula. There is the rush, followed by the second wave, but the post-draft period represents the third wave of free agency where more veterans are likely to be made available.
Teams have to strike a careful balance between acquiring veteran experience, filling needs before the draft, and making the most of cheap rookie contracts.
So who are the ‘bargain bin’ signings that could make sense for the Broncos?
10. Ben Garland | IOL | San Francisco 49ers
Lloyd Cushenberry had a rough rookie season at center but has shown flashes and will get the opportunity to turn it around. Garland is able to play center and both guard positions, he’s intelligent and would bring a veteran presence to the O-line room.
Garland didn’t get much of a chance in his first stint with the Broncos having served his military service in the Air Force before transitioning from defensive tackle, but as a backup interior lineman, he’s a name to watch. Although this will be his age-33 season, and he’s coming off a season-ending calf injury, he played well with a 71.1 Pro Football Focus grade over a five-game sample size starting in place of Weston Richburg.
9. James Hurst | OL | New Orleans Saints
It will be interesting to see what happens at the swing tackle position. The Broncos could roll with Calvin Anderson, re-sign Elijah Wilkinson for cheap, and get a rookie backup, but if the team goes down the veteran route, Hurst is the name that intrigues the most.
Hurst has experience playing all around the O-line and is a capable pass blocker, which should help the Broncos field the best five linemen. His 2020 Over The Cap valuation was $4.23M, and his highest career cap hit was $5.7M, so he’s not likely to break the bank.
8. Duke Johnson | RB | Houston Texans
Johnson is a street free agent because he was cut in February after missing the final three games in 2020 with a neck injury, and is coming off the worst season of his career with just 235 rushing yards and 249 receiving. The longer he is on the free market, the lower his price will end up being, and he might even be one of those that won’t be signed until after the draft.
The aim here is to hedge against a Phillip Lindsay trade or injury, while giving the Broncos a competent passing-down option as part of their running back committee. Best of all, Johnson wouldn’t count towards the compensatory formula.
7. Kevin Pierre-Louis | LB | Washington Football Team
While there are a lot of high hopes for Justin Strnad, the Broncos need to continue to add to the position in free agency and the draft, although it is not necessarily a day-one need. Pierre-Louis has been one of the better linebackers in coverage but hasn’t really played as a starter.
He’ll be 30 years old this season and needs improvement in his run-defense. Pierre-Louis might be the linebacker to target, with a 2020 Over The Cap valuation of $2.251M.
6. Roy Robertson-Harris | IDL | Chicago Bears
What the Broncos do on the interior defensive line will depend on what happens with Shelby Harris. If the team re-signs Harris, it might prefer to roll with the depth and draft a prospect to fill it out. If the Broncos move on from Harris, they might want an IDL with more starter upside than Robertson-Harris.
However, Robertson-Harris does have experience with Vic Fangio, is a competent run stopper, and played his best seasons under Fangio. In four seasons, Robertson-Harris has totaled 75 tackles, nine tackles for a loss, 7.5 sacks, 30 QB hits, and six passes defensed. With a 2020 OTC valuation of $1.179M, he is likely to be reasonably priced.
5. Ahkello Witherspoon | CB | San Francisco 49ers
As a prospect out of Colorado, Witherspoon was one of those rare unicorns with length, size, fluidity, and speed. His career in San Francisco has been up and down, finishing last year with a PFF grade of 80.2, but he’s improved as a tackler and has become more physical.
Witherspoon’s not the cleanest fit for Fangio’s predominantly Cover 2 zone scheme, but he can press and he’s got recovery speed. He’s predominantly played on the outside, but the intention is that he’d compete and allow the Broncos to play Bryce Callahan on the inside.
Witherspoon has a 2020 OTC valuation of $2.637M, but it will be interesting to see how his market develops. 2021 would be his age-26 season, but for the Broncos, there are a lot of experienced corners approaching free agency which might drive down the price.
4. Sheldon Rankins | IDL | New Orleans Saints
If the Broncos decide to move on from Harris, Rankins should be near the top of the list to replace him at a cheaper cost. He is one of those ‘buy low’ first-round redemption candidates, largely on account of missing 10 games over the past two seasons.
Approaching his age-27 season, Rankins is just three seasons removed from a season in which he produced 40 tackles, 14 TFLs, and 8.0 sacks. He has the ability, when healthy, to juice a teams’ pass rush but will likely have to settle for a shorter-term, prove-it deal.
3. Tyus Bowser | Edge | Baltimore Ravens
Though the likes of Malik Reed and Jeremiah Attaochu stepped up over the past two years, the Broncos would be best served to hedge their bet at edge rusher with a rookie (or two) and a veteran, regardless of what the team decides to do with Von Miller over the next week.
Although his low sack totals might depress his value some, there is more to good edge play than pass rushing. Bowser will be approaching his age-26 season and has superb athleticism. While he’s a little light and can get stuck on his blocks, Bowser had a 76.0 PFF grade in run defense for 2020, with a good motor. He really made the most out of last season and is approaching free agency on a high note.
2. Tyrod Taylor | QB | Los Angeles Chargers
If the Broncos are looking to draft North Dakota State’s Trey Lance, the team could do with a veteran hedge who at least somewhat mirrors his style of play. There is a glut of free agent QBs, and teams may also look to the draft, so if Taylor fails to garner initial interest from other teams, he could be playing the waiting game in free agency.
Taylor will turn 32 this summer and has 47 NFL starts under his belt (24-21-1). As a journeyman stop-gap, he’s amassed 9,770 passing yards and 54 touchdowns to just 20 interceptions since arriving in the NFL as Baltimore’s sixth-round pick in 2011. He protects the ball and knows how to mentor a young, future starting QB (see Mayfield, Baker and Herbert, Justin).
1. Janoris Jenkins | CB | New Orleans Saints
A late addition to the list, Jenkins vaults to the top of it for a reason. Although he has some injury and character questions, in the right environment, he has proven to be a very capable corner, especially in zone coverage.
However, Jenkins will turn 33 years old this fall. He signed a two-year, $16.75M deal last year with the Saints, so around a contract paying him $7M APY with incentives would represent good.
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