In the NFL, this time of the year is chockfull of subterfuge. Teams are doing their best not to tip their hands about what they will (or want to) do in the NFL Draft, but information gets out. Still, what is real? What is fake?
Some teams leak info to try and muster up trade value for their pick, or to turn other teams off their scent about who they intend on picking. Last year, near the draft a report conveniently leaked that the Giants were meeting with quarterback Justin Herbert. That didn’t amount to anything other than speculation.
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But there still are ways to figure out what a teams intentions are heading into the draft, even if things change as surprises happen on draft day.
Anyway: We are on the case.
What will the Giants do next week?
Well, general manager Dave Gettleman spoke twice this week alongside assistant general manager Kevin Abrams and director of college scouting Chris Pettit.
We dived into his (and their) quotes to figure out the Giants plans.
1. Draft an EDGE rusher — or linebacker — early, and possibly first.
This seemed inevitable, anyway — especially once the Giants tried and failed to sign Leonard Floyd, then turned attention to other positions. It is pretty clear they’ll be picking an edge rusher early, and possibly in the first-round.
First, Gettleman was asked on Tuesday about the current edge rusher group and he gave a lukewarm answer, expressing belief in Lorenzo Carter and Oshane Ximines — who played a combined nine games in 2020.
“Those guys, I wish that Lorenzo and (Ximines) had been able to play the whole season last year, but you know what, they couldn’t, so we filled in with some guys and did the best we could,” Gettleman said. “We’re going to do better.”
There is a belief that this isn’t an elite edge rusher group of draft prospects, at least at the top, where players like Chase Young and Josh Allen have come in recent years. The reason there’s been so much noise about the Giants possibly trading back is partially because edge is their biggest need, and No. 11 is viewed as a bit too early to pick one.
Pettit was asked directly about this and he pushed back on the idea that they’d be resistant to picking one at No. 11.
“I wouldn’t say it’s too rich for edge rushers,” Pettit said. “Edge rushers are how you win. You win with guys that rush the passer. Where they are on the board, we’ll see how it shakes out, there are a lot of factors to it, but I wouldn’t say there aren’t guys available.”
He added later: “I think it’s a good group, I do. … There’s a bunch of them, there’s different ones, different types, which we like, there’s ones that fit our system, so I think it’s a good group. I think it’s obviously an important position that we look to fill every year, not this year over any other year.”
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We’ll get into the candidates that make sense at No. 11, after diving into a couple more clues …
2. They won’t be drafting a “project” at No. 11, and probably not in the second round, either.
Gettleman was asked if he envisioned getting a player ready to contribute right away with the 11th pick. There are some prospects — in every draft — that have tantalizing talent but need significant development before they can become full-time contributors.
This year, one prospect in particular who fits that mold is Penn State’s Jayson Oweh, a freakish athlete that didn’t record a sack last year and lacks football experience. Miami’s Gregory Rousseau was dominant in 2019 (15.5 sacks) but played only one full college season and opted out in 2020. Some view Michigan’s Kwity Paye as a project, too, especially with his lack of production (11.5 sacks in four years) in college.
Gettleman admitted the Giants aren’t inclined to draft a project with their first pick, using an NBA player as an example. Gettleman pointed to Boston Celtics center Robert Williams, a player drafted in the first round a few years ago only now coming into his own. In the NFL, coaches don’t have the time to wait like that, he said.
“It’s really hard to take a guy at 11 that you’re betting on the potential,” Gettleman said. “In the NFL, I’ve got to be really cognizant of the coaches. They’re under the pressure to win all the time. Every Sunday is a referendum on their skills as coaches and you’ve got to be really careful when you start taking guys that high that you love the physical skills and the potential, but how long is it going to take for it to show on the field? So that’s kind of the balance I have to get to.”
That would seem to at least eliminate the Giants picking Oweh or Rousseau at No. 11, though both would be an intriguing fit if they fall to the second round and the Giants don’t pick an edge in the first round.
3. Versatility will be paramount for defensive prospects.
Gettleman spoke about the simpatico relationship the front office and scouting department has with the coaching staff, and specifically pointed to the coaches preference with linebackers.
The name of the game is versatility, and that really applies to other positions as well. He used defensive back Julian Love, who plays both safety and cornerback, as an example.
“It’s really the linebacker fit and the versatility we’re looking for with certain players,” Gettleman said. “You’d like to have a talented two-way go guy, a guy that can go and do a couple things. You turn around and you take a look at what [CB] Julian Love has developed into, where he’s a corner, he’s a safety, he’s here, he’s there. It gives the coordinator a lot of flexibility, so that’s where that’s at.”
The main takeaway here: Just because the Giants need an edge rusher doesn’t mean they’re considering all of the available options. They need to do more — or have the ability to develop into someone that can do more — than just rush the passer.
That could bring other more traditionally off-ball linebackers into the mix at No. 11, too, especially someone like Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons. He’s considered one of the 10 best players in the draft already, but most importantly he played outside linebacker in college and defensive end in high school. PFF wrote in its draft guide that he has “edge rusher type moves as a pass rusher” and is “still an edge rusher in his mind.”
“He’s got the type of size and skill set that could make him the first edge rusher drafted if he wanted to switch to that position,” PFF wrote.
Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has the ability, athleticism and skillset to line-up at linebacker, safety or in the slot.
At edge rusher, Miami’s Jaelan Phillips has the ability to rush from both the inside and outside. Georgia’s Azeez Ojulari has the ability to both rush as an end or an outside linebacker.
Remember those names, whether the Giants are drafting at No. 11 or if they trade-back.
4. They won’t eschew wide receiver this year.
Last year’s draft class was considered historically deep at wide receiver, and the Giants didn’t draft any. The same is true in 2021.
Don’t expect the Giants to make that same mistake, and it still wouldn’t be at all surprising if they opted to pick one of the Alabama wide receivers (DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle) if one or both are available at No. 11.
That’s still true even after the Giants added Kenny Golladay and John Ross to a group that already includes Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard and, to a lesser degree of importance, Dante Pettis.
“You’re always looking to upgrade every position, doesn’t make a difference,” Gettleman said. “Whether it’s wide receiver, tackle, whatever. You’re always looking to upgrade … it’s about value and how you’re building your team, what you’re looking to do. You can never have too many good players at one position.”
5. If Kyle Pitts, somehow, is there — they’re taking him.
This looks like a no-brainer now, a week out from the draft, but it’s worth mentioning: Gettleman is as high on Pitts as the rest of the NFL seems to be. Pitts is being hailed as perhaps the best tight end prospect to ever enter the NFL Draft. He’s being projected to be picked as high as fourth overall to the Atlanta Falcons.
There’s slim to no chance he lasts until No. 11.
“He’s a uniquely talented player,” Gettleman said. “You can’t characterize him as just a receiving tight end because you watch him block and he’s got a lot of blocking grit, he’s got some nice fundamentals down and he’s certainly big enough. He’s a different breed of cat, now. He’s very talented.”
6. Expect some players with ties to the coaching staff.
Joe Judge’s staff is loaded up with coaches with ties to college football. Defensive line coach Sean Spencer coached at Penn State from 2014-19. Senior defensive assistant Jeremy Pruitt was recently fired as Tennessee’s head coach and previously had stops at Georgia and Alabama. Running backs coach Burton Burns spent most of his career at Alabama before last year. Offensive line coach Rob Sale was the offensive coordinator at Louisiana the last three years.Offensive quality control coach Russ Callaway was recently hired off LSU’s staff.
And Judge, of course, has ties to Alabama from his time there, and the many coaches from Nick Saban’s staff from back then that have since branched out into becoming coaches or coordinators themselves elsewhere.
Gettleman said it’s “quite helpful” to have coaches with such deep ties to the college ranks.
“They’ve known these guys,” he said. “They’ve touched these guys, which we unfortunately haven’t been able to do as much, so it’s quite helpful.”
Expect a player or two (or more) to have ties to this staff.
7. No trade-backs.
No reason to dwell on this topic much more, but Gettleman said nothing that should make anyone believe he’ll be trading down for the first time in his career.
A snippet: “Honest, I’ve tried to trade back, but it’s got to be value. I’m not getting fleeced. I refuse to do it. If somebody wants to make a bad trade back, God bless them.”
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