Dan Orlovsky breaks down how Cam Newton will be utilized with the Patriots, saying Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will discover new methods to utilize his ability.
What could the Patriots offense look like?
A healthy Newton has to be considered the preferred to win the beginning quarterback task in New England. Stidham was about to end up being the 2nd player in league history taken after pick No. 100 to start for his team in Week 1 of his 2nd season after not beginning as a novice. While the Patriots were positive enough about Stidhams opportunities to prevent making a more significant move before now, the most we can state about the 2018 fourth-rounder is that he represented something completely unidentified.
Prior to the Newton signing, there was already evidence that the Patriots were going to change their offense. Even the most positive Patriots fan could not recommend that Stidham was going to be Tom Brady.
What the Patriots did this offseason, instead, was construct around a more run-heavy attack. They put the franchise tag on Thuney, meaning that the Pats are set to invest almost $28 million on guards this season, $6.5 million more than any other team. They got back David Andrews after their starting center missed out on the entire season with a lung embolism; signed fullback Danny Vitale to replace the retiring James Develin; and then utilized a set of third-round badger tight ends Dalton Keene and Devin Asiasi, both of whom are considered plus blockers.
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With Stidham, this offense would have most likely looked something similar to a modern-day version of the attack the Patriots ran in 2001, when they had something closer to a 50/50 run/pass split. Bradys task was to convert friendly third downs and protect the football. It worked: The Patriots were 11th in offending DVOA and won a Super Bowl with a defense that was only 13th in DVOA. The 2020 Patriots must be better than that on defense. That formula was going to be competitive with the Buffalo Bills for a department title even prior to including Newton.
If Newton does win the task, the Patriots probably will build something closer to the offense he was working under during his time with Turner in Carolina. With the Panthers trying to get the ball out of Newtons hands quicker, the concerns about precision and efficiency that might have otherwise made him and the Patriots appear like a bad fit went away.
It wouldnt be stunning if they were to steal some ideas out of the Greg Roman playbook for Lamar Jackson and use heavy doses of motion to control groups and create chances for Newton as a runner. When Chip Kelly took hold with the Philadelphia Eagles, the Patriots were one of the very first groups to truly stress speed and tempo, even before Kelly joined the league. The Baltimore Ravens may have beaten the Patriots to the punch, however Belichick isnt going to compose off the leagues most efficient offense as a trick.
What it all comes back to for me is this: When the Patriots have not been able to merely blow past teams with skill like they might in 2007, their core offensive concept has been versatility. Because theyve had Gronkowski, Develin, Julian Edelman and a variety of versatile running backs, the Patriots have constantly been able to create a mismatch.
Last year, with Gronkowski retired, Develin injured and a replacement-level group of tight ends, the Patriots didnt have that capability to disguise their intentions with their personnel or the versatility to move from one concept to the other. They might have wanted to run the ball more successfully, but when Sony Michel was in the video game, they ran it 67% of the time; only 2 gamers (who played 300 offending snaps or more) were better signs of whether their team was going to run the ball, and one of them was Ravens fullback Patrick Ricard.
Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP, could now be the follower to Tom Brady, who signed with the Bucs this offseason. Logan Bowles by means of APThe Patriots didnt get Gronkowski back this offseason, but by renewing at fullback and tight end, they were able to bring back some form of adaptability. By adding Newton to replace Brady, theyve updated that versatility and included uncertainty at the one position where they didnt have it during the Gronkowski age. They were great without Brady as a run threat offered everything else he might give the table; however if Newton is healthy, he can offer them a runner who can barrel through undersized boxes out of 10 or 11 workers or someone who can capitalize as a passer when groups fill up package to stop the run. Because sense, he is less a replacement for Brady and more a replacement for Gronkowski.
The grade: A-minus.
Having stated all that, while the Patriots arent sustaining much monetary risk by signing Newton, there is a chance cost that falls this grade ever so a little. Naturally, theres a chance he fails his physical, which would render this whole thing a waste of time while all at once jabbing at Stidhams confidence. If Newton remains healthy enough to soak up most of the preseason reps with the ones and then suffers a season-ending injury in Week 2, the Patriots will have squandered their time when Stidham might have desperately used those snaps.
Even if Newton does remain on the field and plays well sufficient to begin, theres an opportunity this does not move the needle for the Patriots. If Newtons the 24th-best quarterback in football, they will most likely go 9-7, will not suffice to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs and most likely carry on from Newton after the season without having actually found their long-lasting quarterback. They get in next year with the same questions about Stidham and their future at the position, just with Stidham a year more detailed to totally free firm and the marketplace much less most likely to bear starting alternatives.
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In the end, Cam Newton and the New England Patriots made too much sense for each other. In a league in which every other starting quarterback opportunity was complete, the Patriots provided the previous NFL MVP his only reasonable opportunity of being a Week 1 starter on a competitive group. And while I dont doubt that the Patriots still believe Jarrett Stidham is capable of being a starter at the NFL level, the possibility to get the 2015 MVP when the alternatives were Stidham and Brian Hoyer was constantly going to interest coach Bill Belichick at the best rate.
We might never ever understand whether Belichick delayed the timing of the Newton signing to accompany the news that the Patriots had lost a third-round pick from the current in their series of league investigations, but by the time we get to September, it will not matter. New England might have come away with the deal of the offseason by accepting terms with Newton on an one-year offer, apparently for the league minimum. Newton also can supposedly make up to $7.5 million in rewards, prior to he would presumably be able to strike the marketplace again under far much better scenarios in 2021.
Dive to the grade for the deal
The realities about Newtons post-MVP career
If Newton gets hurt or isnt able to beat out Stidham, New England would probably be out just about $1 million. When you think about that the organization paid Antonio Brown more than $9 million for one video game last season, you can see simply how little the Patriots have to lose by including Newton.
2 RelatedOf course, thats the $7 million question. If we understood that Newton was healthy, theres long shot he would be offered in the market for the league minimum. He hasnt been healthy for a regular-season breeze since the very first half of 2018, and with the coronavirus rampaging through America this spring and summer season, no team has actually had the ability to get Newton in for an exercise or a physical. It was going to be impossible for a group to devote to him as its starter on significant money, even if he ia a better choice than somebody like Nick Foles or Gardner Minshew.
The opportunities of a healthy– or at least much healthier– version of Newton showing up for the Patriots this season are much better than some would recommend. The idea that he hasnt been a valuable quarterback given that his 2015 MVP project is an item of selective memory. Lets take a peek back through current history to discuss why Im positive.
Newton wasnt really excellent in 2016, when an injury-riddled Carolina Panthers group fell from 15-1 to 6-10. His line was beaten up by injuries, and his leading pass receiver was Kelvin Benjamin, who is now out of football. The Denver Broncos laid waste to Newton in their Super Bowl rematch in Week 1, and he would ultimately miss out on time with a concussion before returning to the field. He finished 25th in QBR that year at 47.1, falling just below then-Miami Dolphins recently successful and starter improvement job Ryan Tannehill at 48.6. (If you think Newton was done since of his injury history, think about that Tannehill tore an ACL at the end of that season, did it once again the following offseason, missed time with a capsule injury in his shoulder in 2018 and still made a massive contract after getting a possibility to play in 2019.).
In 2017, while Newton didnt go back to his MVP type, he was still an useful quarterback. Regardless of losing Greg Olsen for the majority of the season and general supervisor Dave Gettleman picking to make a dreadful investment in left deal with Matt Kalil, Newton ended up the year 19th in QBR at 51.5. He worked enough as a passer and runner to lead a Panthers group to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth.
Newton won his previous video game versus the Pats in 2013. I dont believe Belichick makes his decision based on 2 video games, however the guy knows how tough a healthy Newton can be to stop.
In the hopes of keeping him healthy and developing a more reliable offense around the combination of his skills with those of running back Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers made changes throughout the 2018 offseason. In came Norv Turner, who remarkably set up a more modern-day offense than the one Newton ran under Mike Shula. The Panthers utilized their top two picks on wideouts in DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel, although the latter likewise was hurt. Olsen still missed time, and the offending line was patched together as an outcome of injuries, however there was more around Newton than there had actually been over the prior 3 seasons.
Camera Newton tossed simply 89 passes last season prior to a foot injury caused him to miss the Panthers final 14 games. Carolina launched him in March. Ronald Martinez/Getty ImagesNewton played outstanding football through the first half of 2018. With Carolina sitting quite at 6-2 in the NFC South, he was 10th in the league in passer ranking (100.8) and 12th in QBR (63.1 ). Often among the deepest typical passers in football, he was given shorter passes to throw and magically improved his conclusion percentage to 67.3. The former first general pick was balancing nearly four goals for every interception and producing almost 280 backyards from scrimmage per game. He was fourth on my midseason MVP tally that year.
The Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Panthers 52-21 in Week 10. Pretty quickly, it became clear that Newtons ideal shoulder was a problem. He had a hard time to make throws with zip over the second half of the season, and while he fought through the injury before ultimately remaining in late December, the Panthers collapsed during the 2nd half. He went through shoulder surgery after the season.
By all accounts, Newton recovered from that shoulder injury. One report from camp admired the return of his deep ball, which had gone missing out on as a result of the shoulder injury the prior year.
Newton suffered a Lisfranc injury to his left foot in a preseason loss to Belichicks Patriots. He sat out the remainder of the preseason before returning for Week 1, but when I saw Newton play against the Los Angeles Rams, I didnt see a quarterback who was having a hard time for speed or arm strength. From how he was moving and the number of passes he sailed over his receivers, it was clear he wasnt comfortable planting his foot. After the problem was even more obvious throughout a Thursday night loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers the following week, the Panthers shut him down. When the injury didnt heal with rest, the Panthers placed Newton on hurt reserve, ending his season.
While a Lisfranc injury can be dreadful for receivers, its not generally a career-impacting injury for quarterbacks. Matt Schaub hit hurt reserve with a Lisfranc injury in 2011 and went back to make the Pro Bowl the following season. Taysom Hill suffered a Lisfranc injury in college, and while it cost the BYU quarterback the majority of his senior year, he has actually had the ability to return and move just fine. Newton needs to be recovered from both the 2018 shoulder surgical treatment and the 2019 foot surgery.
Is it possible Newton has simply taken a lot of hits and has grown brittle? I expect, however we have plenty of examples of quarterbacks who suffered several serious injuries and were still able to restore their career. Tannehill, who is nearly a year older than Newton, comes to mind. Randall Cunningham dealt with an ACL injury in an age in which it was even more career-threatening and came back at 35 to provide an All-Pro season for the Minnesota Vikings. Steve McNair fought through injury after injury and was a Pro Bowl-caliber passer at age 32 and 33. I dont know whether Newton will get back to his old self, but its early to compose him off.
In that dream situation in which Newton stays healthy and the Patriots compete for a Super Bowl, theres still some modest disadvantage for the team. They were unable to encourage Newton to sign a multiyear deal or get any sort of option on him for 2021 if he excels as the starter.
This is a clearly wise relocation for the Patriots, even if it does not exercise. Merely having Newton on their roster when he might have worked as a high-upside backup for competitors like the Bills, Ravens, Steelers, Titans and Chiefs would have been worth what the Patriots are paying him. For the Patriots to add a starter with Newtons upside this late while doing so is practically a cliché. This has a strong case to end up being the very best free-agent finalizing of the offseason.
Take an appearance back at the highs and lows of Cam Newtons time with the Carolina Panthers.
When you consider that the organization paid Antonio Brown more than $9 million for one video game last season, you can see just how little the Patriots have to lose by including Newton.
The chances of a healthy– or at least much healthier– variation of Newton revealing up for the Patriots this season are much better than some would recommend. Newton suffered a Lisfranc injury to his left foot in a preseason loss to Belichicks Patriots. If Newton stays healthy enough to soak up the majority of the preseason reps with the ones and then suffers a season-ending injury in Week 2, the Patriots will have lost their time when Stidham could have frantically utilized those snaps.
If Newtons the 24th-best quarterback in football, they will probably go 9-7, will not be great enough to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs and most likely relocation on from Newton after the season without having actually discovered their long-term quarterback.
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