With A Healthy Jusuf Nurkić, The Trail Blazers Are On The Cusp Of The Playoffs – FiveThirtyEight

Nurkić is struggling strongly on defense
Points per belongings given up by the Portland Trail Blazers on actions defended by Jusuf Nurkić, and his rank on each type, because July 30, 2020

Off-ball screen
56
1.23
29th of 38

Dribble handoff
37
1.47
29th of 29

McCollum tends to have a higher use when he has fun with the 2nd unit sans Lillard, so he and Nurkić have actually not linked on as many plays, but the 24 dribble handoffs they have finished so far have yielded 34 points– a magnificent scoring rate.

Nurk suffered compound fractures to the tibia and fibula of his lower left leg throughout a double-overtime win over the Nets in March 2019, and at the time this season went on hiatus, he had been out for two weeks shy of a complete year. Nurkić initially made a remarkable go back to the fold at halftime of a championship game last season: As ESPNs Ramona Shelburne wrote, Nurkić was seeing the game at house and was annoyed by his inability to help, so he had his sweetheart drive him to the arena. The Blazers– down by 8 to the Thunder when he joined the bench– stormed back with Nurkić enjoying from the sidelines instead of his couch and won the game on Damian Lillards renowned walk-off 3.

Pick and roll
149
1.29
52nd of 55

To certify, protectors must have played 50 pick and rolls, 20 dribble handoffs and 50 off-ball screens.
Source: Second Spectrum
Its not perfect that Portland has the misery of playing its next video game against the Dallas Mavericks, who have the most effective offense in NBA history. After Luka Dončić and Kristaps Porziņģis remained the teams Monday afternoon win over the Utah Jazz, it seems most likely theyll be back in action tonight. Provided Portlands defensive struggles, its equally unlikely the Blazers will lock down Dallass vibrant duo. Theyre going to have to win the game with their offense. Fortunate for them, Nurkić exists to help.

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Hes always been more of a rim-protector than a guy who can safeguard in space, and its not surprising that he would have problem with the latter function after missing out on 16 months with a severe leg injury. But apparently all Blazer challengers have actually required to produce an easy score throughout the reboot is to include Nurkić in any type of action that forces him to move his feet: pick and roll, dribble handoff, off-ball screen, anything.

Kind of action safeguarded
plays defended
Pts/Poss
Rank

Placing Nurkić for Hassan Whiteside (who began 61 of the teams 66 games) has actually kicked things into an even greater gear. Nurkić has selected up right where he left off, showcasing fantastic chemistry with the teams 2 scoring stars.

While it still may have been possible for Nurkić to return had the 2019-20 season continued apace, the coronavirus-induced suspension of play offered him even more time to recover and work himself back into shape. Nurkić is balancing 18.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.8 helps, 1.3 takes and 2.5 blocks per video game.

We predicted the Blazers to go simply 3-5 at Walt Disney World, yet with just 2 “regular-season” games left, theyve gone 4-2, with those 2 losses coming over a combined 9 points. The Blazers have actually gotten the usual shimmering play from Damian Lillard, strong complementary scoring from CJ McCollum and outrageous sniping from both Carmelo Anthony (47.8 percent from three) and Gary Trent Jr. (56.9 percent in spite of a 1 of 6 efficiency on Sunday), however its not likely they d be where they are right now without the contributions of their starting center: Jusuf Nurkić.

Like the rest of the Blazers, Nurk is getting definitely flambéed on the less attractive end of the court. Nurkić himself has some of the worst defensive numbers on the group (theyve been 6.4 points per 100 belongings worse defensively with him on the floor than on the bench), and boy does the eye test back them up.

Regardless of getting in the NBA bubble 3.5 games back of the Memphis Grizzlies, the existing overwhelming preferred to capture the 8th and last playoff area in the Western Conference is the Portland Path Sports Jackets. The FiveThirtyEight RAPTOR-based forecast provides the Blazers a 76 percent chance of making the postseason, up from simply 12 percent prior to the restart.

Nurkić is balancing 18.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, 4.8 helps, 1.3 steals and 2.5 blocks per video game. Placing Nurkić for Hassan Whiteside (who began 61 of the groups 66 games) has kicked things into an even higher gear. Nurkićs overall passing efficiency has been terrific as well– his 7.2 prospective helps per game are fourth-best amongst bubble centers, per NBA.com, while his 4.8 helps and 11.3 points produced off helps each rank 3rd.

Nurkićs overall passing performance has actually been wonderful also– his 7.2 prospective assists per game are fourth-best amongst bubble centers, per NBA.com, while his 4.8 assists and 11.3 points produced off assists each rank 3rd. Theres a little bit of luck involved there, as his Blazer colleagues are outshining their anticipated efficient field-goal percentage off his passes by 7.8 points, however among the 29 centers who have actually developed at least 10 shots with their passes during the restart, he has actually still developed the ninth-highest quantified shot quality– or anticipated reliable field-goal percentage– with his dishes. His proficiency at passing out of double-teams in the post along with on the move in pick-and-roll situations far surpasses that of Whiteside, which opens things up a bit more for his teammates.

Nurkić at first made a significant return to the fold at halftime of a playoff video game last season: As ESPNs Ramona Shelburne composed, Nurkić was viewing the video game at home and was irritated by his inability to help, so he had his sweetheart drive him to the arena. The Blazers– down by 8 to the Thunder when he signed up with the bench– stormed back with Nurkić watching from the sidelines rather of his couch and won the game on Damian Lillards iconic walk-off three.

Pick and rolls including Lillard as the ball-handler and Nurkić as the screener have actually resumed their rightful location as the structure of the teams offense. No duo has run more choice and rolls throughout the restart than Dame and Nurk, who have matched on 127 screens, per Second Spectrum. Those pick and rolls have also been extremely successful, with a normal ownership including a Lillard-Nurkić ball screen producing 1.243 points– a scoring rate that ranks 25th out of 281 duos who have combined on a minimum of 125 screens on the season as a whole.