One thing that makes the NFL so amusing every year is the fact that its one of the most unforeseeable sports on the world, and absolutely nothing shows that more than the leagues uncanny capability to produce at least one group every season that goes from worst-to-first..
Over the past 5 years, there have actually been an overall of six teams that have followed up a last place finish in one season with a division-winning run the following season, and for those of you who arent proficient at math, thats an average of more than one group per year. That average has really held quite firm over the years: Since the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, there have actually been 25 groups that have gone from worst to first, which is approximately 1.4 groups per year over that 18-season span..
Generally, NFL history says that at least one team is going to go from last place in 2019 to top place in 2020, and due to the fact that we enjoy ranking things here, were going to rank the 8 last location finishers from in 2015 to identify which team has the very best chances of leaving with a division title in 2020..
Ranking groups more than likely to go from worst-to-first.
( All division odds through William Hill Sportsbook).
2019 record: 5-11Odds to win AFC West: +1000.
If these rankings were based upon how talented your lineup is, the Chargers certainly wouldnt be in the last spot, but these rankings arent based upon that at all, theyre based on whether a team has any possibility of winning its department in 2020 and it does not seem like the Chargers truly take a crack at. The issue for the Chargers is that theyre in the very same department as the Chiefs and its hard to visualize any scenario where Los Angeles is able to overtake Kansas City to win the division, particularly when you consider that the Chargers are simply 1-11 against the Chiefs since 2014. To win the AFC West, the Chargers will seemingly require to win a couple of divisional games, which isnt something they were able to do last year (They went 0-6 against AFC West groups in 2019)..
Fun reality: The Chargers have actually only gone worst-to-first as soon as in franchise history and that came all the way back in 1992. After going 4-12 in 1991, the Chargers followed that up with a 11-5 first-place finish in 1992..
2019 record: 5-11Odds to win NFC South: +1800.
If youre looking for a long shot last location team to make a department winning bet on this offseason, heres some suggestions: Dont select the Panthers. Matt Rhule might end up being a wonderful coach, the chances will definitely be stacked versus him during his first year in Carolina. For one, due to the pandemic, hes only going to have roughly 4 weeks of practice prior to the season starts, which seems like a recipe for catastrophe when you consider that the Panthers are the only team in the NFL that will be trying to break in a new head coach, two new coordinators and a brand-new beginning quarterback this year. The Panthers are also in a department with two Super Bowl competitors (Saints, Buccaneers) and a Falcons group that has actually beaten Carolina 5 straight times..
Fun reality: Since 2002, just 3 of the 25 worst-to-first teams made it to the Super Bowl and Carolina was one of those teams. The Panthers followed up a last place season in 2002 with a Super Bowl appearance in 2003..
6. Cincinnati Bengals.
2019 record: 2-14Odds to win AFC North: +3000.
The Bengals completed with the worst record in the NFL last year, so it might appear a little insane to be talking about them as a possible department winner, however its something that might absolutely take place if Joe Burrow has a huge season. Although rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle during their very first year on the job, there have been a couple of cases where the QB is available in and absolutely revitalizes the franchise. For instance, after the Colts went 2-14 in 2011, Andrew Luck can be found in as a rookie and led them to an 11-5 record in 2012. The Bengals absolutely have some substantial enigma going into the season (their offensive line, their whole defense), however this is likewise a team that held a lead in 12 of the 16 video games they played last year, which implies they might be better than they were given credit for..
Fun truth: The concept of banking on the Bengals to get to the Super Bowl may seem crazy, but theyve done it before following a last location season. In fact, theyve done it two times: Both Super Bowl appearances in franchise history (1981, 1988) came after a season where the Bengals ended up in last location (1980, 1987).
5. Washington Football Team.
2019 record: 3-13Odds to win NFC East: +1500.
Ron Rivera is certainly going to have his work cut out for him throughout his very first season in Washington. Not just did the group trade its best protective back (Quinton Dunbar) and best offensive take on (Trent Williams) this offseason, however its not even clear who the beginning quarterback is going to be, which isnt a perfect situation to be in with less than four weeks to go until the start of the season. Washington does have among the scariest protective lines in the league with Chase Young, Ryan Kerrigan and Montez Sweat, but thats about the only thing thats scary about this team today. As things currently stand, the NFC East appears like its a two-horse race in between the Cowboys and Eagles..
Enjoyable truth: Washington is one of just 2 groups in the NFL that went worst-to-first an overall of two times over the past years (2010 thru 2019). Washington did it in 2012 and 2015 while Houston did it in 2011 and 2018..
2019 record: 5-10-1Odds to win NFC West: +700.
In 2019, the NFC West was the only department in the NFL that produced 3 teams that finished above.500. The Cardinals seem like a group predestined to top their win overall from last year, but theyre most likely going to require 11 or 12 wins to take house the department crown, and that seems like it might be asking too much.
Enjoyable truth: Arizona is the only team on this years list that has actually never ever gone from worst-to-first..
2019 record: 6-10Odds to win AFC South: +1200.
The Jaguars really ended up the 2019 season with the very best record of any last location team, and although that does not make you a contender, they most likely feel respectable about themselves after finish just 4 video games out of top place in 2015 (Every other last location team completed at least six games out of top place)..
Sure, the Jaguars traded away 2 of their best protective gamers this offseason (Calais Campbell and cornerback A.J. Bouye), one defensive starter desires absolutely nothing to do with the team (Yannick Ngakoue) and their quarterback is going into his first full year as a starter, but the bright side for the Jags is that every other team in the AFC South is also handling some drama..
In Indianapolis, the Colts are handing their offense over to Philip Rivers. The factor thats dangerous is because Rivers appeared like a 38-year-old cleaned up quarterback at times last season and theres no warranty he will not look like a 38-year-old washed up quarterback sometimes in 2020. In Houston, Bill OBrien gutted his own offense by trading away DeAndre Hopkins, and in Tennessee, Mike Vrabel has yet to prove that he can lead the Titans to a record thats not 9-7. The AFC South is a winnable department for the Jags, which is why theyre ranked so high..
Fun reality: Of all the groups on this list, the Jaguars are the ones that have actually most just recently gone worst-to-first. The Jags won the AFC South in 2017, simply one year after ending up in last location with a 3-13 record..
2019 record: 3-12-1Odds to win NFC North: +850.
For the first eight weeks of the 2019 season, the Lions appeared like a potential dark horse team to make the playoffs, however then Matthew Stafford got injured and the wheels fell off the wagon. Prior to Staffords injury, he was playing like among the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Not just was he averaging 312.4 passing lawns per video game, however he had a 106.0 QB score and a 19-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio, and he did all that even though he was still learning the system of Lions first-year offending coordinator Darrell Bevell. If Stafford can remain healthy, the Lions must have the ability to contend for the department title in a broad open NFC North..
Fun reality: The Lions only have one worst-to-first turn-around in franchise history, and fans in Detroit might really keep in mind when it took place. After finishing in last location in 1992, the Lions won the NFC Central with a 10-6 record in 1993, which is notable, since that also occurs to be the last time Detroit won a division title..
2019 record: 5-11Odds to win AFC East: +750.
Last year, Dolphins coach Brian Flores squeezed 5 wins out of a team that was expected to be tanking, and it wont be surprising at all if Miami handles to double that win total in 2020. Before being hired by the Dolphins, Flores was the de facto protective coordinator in New England, so it wasnt surprising that one of the very first things he did this offseason was intensify his defense. Over the previous couple of months, the Dolphins have added several protective beginners with men like Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson. The reason thats noteworthy is since having a solid defense may be enough to win the AFC East this year, especially when you consider that the quarterbacks in the department are a person whos seeing ghosts (Sam Darnold), a person who has a worse profession completion portion than Blake Bortles (Josh Allen) and whomever New England trots out at quarterback..
If Ryan Fitzpatrick can keep the offense afloat, the Dolphins might be able to stun their way to the AFC East title in 2020..
Fun reality: Over the past 17 years, only one group not named New England has actually won an AFC East title, which was the Dolphins in 2008. Naturally, were noting that here, because it involved a worst-to-first scenario. After going 1-15 in 2007, the Dolphins cut loose over everyone in 2008 by implementing a Wildcat offense that they wound up riding to a 11-5 record and a department title..
Super Bowl enjoyable fact: Of the 25 teams that gone worst-to-first given that 2002, just three have actually made the Super Bowl and all three of those teams completed a minimum of 7-9 throughout their last location season. For the last location groups on this years list, none of you meet that requirements, so although one of these teams might win their division, you probably shouldnt pick them to win the Super Bowl..
For one, due to the pandemic, hes just going to have approximately four weeks of practice prior to the season begins, which appears like a dish for disaster when you think about that the Panthers are the only team in the NFL that will be attempting to break in a brand-new head coach, two new organizers and a brand-new starting quarterback this year. Washington does have one of the scariest defensive lines in the league with Chase Young, Ryan Kerrigan and Montez Sweat, but thats about the only thing thats frightening about this group right now. The Cardinals seem like a team predestined to top their win total from last year, however theyre probably going to require 11 or 12 wins to take house the division crown, and that seems like it might be asking too much. Last year, Dolphins coach Brian Flores squeezed five wins out of a group that was expected to be tanking, and it wont be unexpected at all if Miami handles to double that win total in 2020. Fun reality: Over the previous 17 years, just one team not called New England has actually won an AFC East title, and that was the Dolphins in 2008.
