The NFL has a slew of excellent quarterbacks who are entering the last legs of their careers. Long-time veterans Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan– to name a few– will all likely have actually retired 5 years from now while awaiting their spots in the NFL Hall of Fame. While most of us will miss seeing them on the field, there are lots of young, increasing skills who are prepared to establish themselves at the top of the quarterback ranks throughout the next few seasons. That being said, we at PFF chose to take a swing at who exactly will comprise the top 10 NFL quarterbacks 5 years from now.
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1. PATRICK MAHOMES
The reigning Super Bowl MVP is coming off historical years in his very first 2 complete seasons leading the Kansas City Chiefs offense. He has produced the finest passing grade we have actually ever tape-recorded from a quarterback in the very first three routine seasons of their profession (92.2 ).
Prior to Mahomes began a game for the Chiefs, if someone had actually claimed he would likely end up with more Super Bowl rings than can fit on one hand, I would have stated to kick rocks. Now, I d be stunned if he didnt.
Mahomes grows in circumstances where most other NFL quarterbacks go to pieces. Including postseason play given that 2018, Mahomes has actually produced a 90.9 passing grade on plays in which his time to toss eclipsed 4.1 seconds. For viewpoint, only three other quarterbacks produced a passing grade higher than 65.0 on such plays.
2. JOE BURROW
Hes far and away the most precise quarterback we have ever come across. And that wasnt some massive improvement from the year prior, either– in 2018, he ranked ninth among all FBS quarterbacks in the very same metric.
Every college QBs single-season Wins Above Average in the PFF College era (since 2014).
Is Joe Burrow going to play well right away in his novice project? Considering the COVID-19-impacted offseason, most likely not. However no matter how he performs out of eviction, we think hell be a star in the NFL.
Do you see the bar up top that is significantly more to the right than every other quarterback season? That would be Mr. Burrows 2019 campaign. While he might not get off to a hot start in 2020, he has the playmakers around him to be a top-10 quarterback by seasons end.
As said in the PFF Draft Guide, Burrow had a handful of incredible anticipatory tosses on tape last year, flashing some of the most fearless plays under duress. He regularly delivered downfield strikes with 300-pound linemen tossing themselves at him. All in all, it was the very best season PFF College has ever seen, and I would be surprised if thats damaged anytime quickly.
3. TREVOR LAWRENCE.
Lawrence holds the record for finest true freshman season we have actually tape-recorded by a quarterback in the PFF College age from a grading standpoint. He ended up that year with a 90.7 PFF grade and handled to top that in 2019 (91.1) in spite of having an abysmal trip in Week 1 against Georgia Tech.
He still ended up 26th in percentage of passes 10-plus yards tossed precisely downfield. That mark isnt on Burrows level, however its still more than great. Essentially, there isnt much within his video game that we dont like– he has every tool needed to be successful in the NFL.
The 6-foot-6 quarterback has an absolute cannon for an arm and fantastic movement relative to his counterparts. We saw that firsthand in the College Football Playoff semifinal when he busted off a 67-yard goal go to save the video game for Clemson. Its his precision if there is any knock on Lawrence or any long-lasting issue. Thats what really burned him in his lowly efficiency against the Yellow Jackets last season. Nevertheless, it wasnt a liability throughout the year.
4. LAMAR JACKSON.
Jackson is fresh off among the best breakout years in current memory. After producing a lowly 56.1 PFF grade in his rookie project, he raised that mark to 90.1 in 2019 en path to winning the NFL MVP.
The damage Jackson carried out in the ground game last year was unlike anything we have seen in current memory. On read-option plays in 2019, Jackson produced a tremendous 24 runs of 10-plus backyards. Thats 14 more than we have actually taped by a quarterback because we began gathering such information. Among those runs was his “MVP minute” that made everybody aware of his elite status:.
His passing efficiency, in particular, was night and day. As PFFs Seth Galina has actually stated before, Jackson was willing to be a pocket passer in 2018 however couldnt piece whatever together to start. In 2019, he lastly made all the right choices. On throws of 10-plus yards, Jackson ranked fifth in turnover-worthy toss rate and 8th in big-time toss rate.
On those very same throws but just to his first read, Jackson had simply one turnover-worthy throw. The only other quarterback to not produce a minimum of three on those passes was Ryan Tannehill. With his improvement as a passer and threatening hurrying ability, Jackson is a problem for opposing defenses.
Mobility was as soon as an added bonus for quarterbacks, but now it has nearly become a necessity– and there isnt a quarterback much better at it than Jackson. His offending organizer, Greg Roman, is one of the leagues finest playcallers, according to our findings, and a huge reason whyis the designed runs he has actually dialed up for Jackson. Its a perfect marriage.
5. DESHAUN WATSON.
If Watson begins taking the tosses the defense gives him as opposed to playing with fire late in the play, theres no doubt he can protect an MVP award. Even with his inconsistent play at times, hes still currently a top-10 quarterback in the NFL– and even a fringe top-five one. His ceiling is that high.
While Watson has actually no doubt been an exceptional quarterback therefore far in his NFL career, this is under the presumption that he discovers some consistency within his video game– similar to the quarterback youll discover after him at No. 6. He has produced at an MVP level numerous times throughout his career but has also had a handful of bad trips that bring his seasons down.
Over the past 2 years, hes had 12 games in which he recorded a passing grade above 80.0. Watson has actually likewise produced a sub-50.0 passing grade in four regular-season video games since 2018, which is tied for the fifth-most among quarterbacks who enter 2020 as beginners.
6. RUSSELL WILSON.
Wilson has actually constantly made some excellent plays beyond the structure throughout his NFL career, however his 2019 season, in specific, was on a various level. He made extremely couple of mistakes on such plays and led the NFL in passing grade by a mile:.
His primetime performance against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 5 is a clear example of that elite quality. You know, the video game when he made maybe the toss of the year to Tyler Lockett in the corner of completion zone?
Highest-graded quarterbacks outside of structure in 2019.
BTT = Big-time throws; TWPs = Turnover-worthy plays.
Patrick Mahomes.
72.1.
5.
4.
Russell Wilson.
90.1.
10.
1.
Jameis Winston.
64.6.
1.
5.
Player.
Passing grade.
BTTs.
TWPs.
Wilson will be 36 years of ages in 5 years, however we assume he is still going to be cooking at that age. After battling some consistency concerns a few years into his NFL career, he has become a regular leading performer week in and week out over the past couple of years. Hes coming off the very best season of his NFL career– one in which he produced a 90.8 passing grade (2nd in the NFL) and was our most important gamer of the season in regard to PFF WAR.
Aaron Rodgers.
59.0.
5.
5.
Wilsons deep ball is arguably the finest in the whole league. A few of his stats on those throws legitimately made me do a double-take. His grade on such passes (20-plus backyard targets) over the previous 2 years leads all quarterbacks, with the only one threatening him being Mahomes. The data point that many sticks out of his on deep targets because period though is his big-time toss to turnover-worthy play ratio of 60 to 2. Thats about as near to ideal as you can get. Wilson is the second-best quarterback in the NFL today and ought to remain amongst the very best five years from now.
Carson Wentz.
69.6.
2.
4.
7. BAKER MAYFIELD.
The world appears equally divided on Mayfield as a quarterback. Some, like us, think he will be a top-10 quarterback in years to come, while others think his ceiling is typical at best, like our buddy Colin Cowherd.
His 2019 season was nothing brief of frustrating– we wont sugarcoat it. As I have actually stated in many other short articles leading up to the 2020 NFL season, he routinely abandoned tidy pockets and forced too lots of tosses to his star WR-duo in Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. There was clear miscommunication between Mayfield and OBJ as well in their first year together– the two had 27 targets that resulted in a quarterback-fault incompletion last year, which connected for the most in the NFL.
Mayfields 2019 project is the just down year we have seen from him in our 5 years of data on him. In his three years at Oklahoma, he ranked second, very first and very first in PFF grade– to this day, he still owns 3 of the 10 most valuable quarterback seasons we have tape-recorded. With Kevin Stefanski now running the program in Cleveland, Mayfield is poised to find the gamer who appeared like a budding star in the league.
Even considering that, we should not forget what he performed in his rookie project. Mayfield produced an outstanding 83.2 PFF grade that year, which nearly split the leading 10 (ranked 11th). His precision didnt miss out on a beat from his time at Oklahoma, as he ranked third in the NFL in portion of passes that were perfectly positioned, according to our ball-charting process. In addition, he produced a staggering 40 big-time throws, which ranked 3rd in the NFL.
8. KYLER MURRAY.
While I wouldnt expect an MVP Murray in 2020, I would anticipate him to inch towards securing top-10 status, and I think its most likely he is there within the next couple of years.
Murrays athleticism plainly made an effect in the ground game, as he had the second-most 10-plus backyard gains on designed brings at the position (11)– behind only Lamar Jackson (29 ). As a passer, he displayed the discuss his deep ball that we all fell for when he was lighting up college football at Oklahoma. The 2019 first overall choice ended up the season as the fifth-highest graded quarterback on throws of 20-plus yards. He had actually a number of completely placed throws right over his receivers shoulders. He was 4th in passing grade on such pass efforts.
Murray is being pegged as a virtual lock to break out in his 2nd NFL season in 2020, and we have no arguments with that sentiment.
There were times in the middle of the 2019 season where he looked like he was beginning to break out and perform at a high level, however then it came crashing down with a poor video game. That kind of hot-and-cold play is common for a first-year beginning quarterback, as is lowly pocket existence, however he flashed numerous things that were advanced for his age.
9. JUSTIN FIELDS.
Whoever misses out on out on Lawrence come April will not have to go for much less with Fields.
It appeared essentially difficult prior to the 2019 college football season that any quarterback would get themselves a chance at catching Trevor Lawrence to be the first overall choice in the 2021 NFL Draft, however Ohio States Justin Fields defied those odds. Now, he hasnt overtaken him, but he sits strongly behind him after his 2019 project for the Buckeyes.
Fields displayed tremendous precision and decision-making all year long. He had the fifth-lowest rate of uncatchable passes thrown on passes of 10-plus backyards and the 16th-best turnover-worthy play rate in the FBS. Not to discuss, Fields is a ludicrous professional athlete who brings a lot to the table in the ground video game.
In his very first complete year of starting at the college level, Fields produced the second-most important season of the year and the 10th-most important campaign we have ever recorded at the position.
10. DAK PRESCOTT.
He might even be better than this No. 10 ranking if Prescott can much better restrict errors when things dont go according to plan like the others above him on this list.
In his 3 years at Oklahoma, he ranked second, very first and first in PFF grade– to this day, he still owns 3 of the 10 most valuable quarterback seasons we have tape-recorded.
Mobility was as soon as an added reward for quarterbacks, however now it has practically end up being a requirement– and there isnt a quarterback much better at it than Jackson. His grade on such passes (20-plus lawn targets) over the previous 2 years leads all quarterbacks, with the only one threatening him being Mahomes. Wilson is the second-best quarterback in the NFL right now and should remain amongst the finest 5 years from now.
Prescott can play at a top-10 and even top-five level in any given year. He showed that this past season, as he was one of the 3 most valuable quarterbacks of the season in PFF WAR, in addition to in his unforeseen novice year.
A large factor for his success this past year was due to the fact that he attacked downfield more than he ever has, which will remain the same with Moore still calling the shots on offense. On those throws, Prescott also led the league in passing grade.
That being said, we at PFF decided to take a swing at who exactly will make up the top 10 NFL quarterbacks five years from now.
With the environment set to surround Prescott for the next few years in Dallas– assuming the team finally pays him– hes poised to have a lot of success. The offense is cluttered with talent, ranking as one of the three finest in the NFL, and the mix of head coach Mike McCarthy and offensive organizer Kellen Moore is a terrific one.
