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Delighted Week 1! The NFL is back and vibes are good– for now.
Weve invested the last seven months in fantasy football land predicting what may play out in the 2020 season. Per usual, plenty of what we believed we understood will be turned on its metaphorical head by this time next week. Its essential to not overreact to fluky one-week samples, but its likewise crucial to figure out new info and react appropriately.
What follows are my Week 1 QB rankings. Keep in mind that these are not season-long lists or projections; Im simply ranking based on who I believe will score more dream points this week with a concentrate on 1) What the QB attained in 2019 as a dream entertainer, 2) Offseason moves that could lead to a modification in 2020 production, and 3) This weeks matchup.
1. Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson vs. Cleveland Browns (BAL -8, 48.5).
The biggest offseason relocation operating in Jacksons favor is the truth that the Ravens are largely bringing the exact same offense back. Overall, only the Chiefs have more connection in their pass game than the Ravens, who remain in a tier with the Cardinals, Bills, Raiders, Falcons and Titans.
Just Ezekiel Elliott, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry and Chris Carson have actually balanced more hurrying yards per start than Jackson since 2018. Last season, Jackson averaged a full 6 fantasy points per video game more than the next-closest QB. History tells us that he will not publish a 9% TD rate once again, however that doesnt suggest the gap between himself and dreams QB2 will always evaporate.
The Browns, like most NFL groups, havent managed to decrease Jacksons rushing capability:.
2018 Week 17: 20 rushes-90 rush yards-2 TD.
2019 Week 4: 9-66-0.
2019 Week 16: 17-103-0.
The capacity for Myles Garrett to totally take over a video game always looms, however the Browns again appear like a defense much better matched to defend the pass (18th in DVOA in 2019) than run (30th). This is generally the remarkable setup on defense in todays NFL; simply not versus the Ravens juggernaut of a run game.
DFS note: Jackson is can be found in at personal regular-season high $8,100 on DraftKings. I d consider a more affordable target for cash games, while stacking Jackson with the likes of Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in tournaments.
2. Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs. Houston Texans (KC -9.5, 54).
Mahomes has actually tossed for 8 scores in his last eight quarters of football versus the Texans, who ranked dead last in yards permitted per play in 2019. Perhaps second-round DT Ross Blacklock and third-round DE Jonathan Greenard will help raise the groups flooring if/when J.J. Watt is forced to miss time. Even with this group at full strength, dont anticipate them to slow down the NFLs scariest offense.
Mahomes is the finest QB in the Super Bowl period in career QB Rating (108.9 ), backyards per effort (8.6 ), adjusted lawns per attempt (9.2) and changed net lawns per effort (8.6 ). He mayve lost the fantasy QB1 crown in 2019, although the distinction in between 2018 Mahomes (26.1 fantasy PPG) and 2019 Jackson (27.7) was negligible. Note that those abovementioned 2 seasons are the top-two most-productive dream seasons at the QB position * ever *.
DFS note: Fading Mahomes in a face-off slate must be fastidiously terrifying. I would not know, because Ive never ever faded the best QB alive in a one-game slate.
Mahomes finest course to catching Jackson might be continuing to use his legs a bit more frequently, as he did down the Chiefs playoff stretch.
Per normal, plenty of what we thought we knew will be flipped on its metaphorical head by this time next week. Last season, Jackson balanced a complete 6 dream points per video game more than the next-closest QB. Mahomes is the finest QB in the Super Bowl age in profession QB Rating (108.9 ), lawns per effort (8.6 ), changed backyards per effort (9.2) and adjusted net yards per effort (8.6 ). He mayve lost the dream QB1 crown in 2019, although the distinction between 2018 Mahomes (26.1 dream PPG) and 2019 Jackson (27.7) was negligible. Note that those aforementioned 2 seasons are the top-two most-productive dream seasons at the QB position * ever *.
Mahomes is the very best QB alive dont @ mepic.twitter.com/bjOmiTksu3.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 19, 2020.
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No one brings back more connection in the death game than the Chiefs. Adding first-round RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire– Mahomes preferred choice– is simply the cherry on top of another great offseason from GM Brett Veach and company.
