Im of the opinion that the Cardinals are toast regardless– thanks mainly to that hellacious schedule– so actually, Im psychologically thinking about the Cubs “clinching” when their magic number relative to the Reds gets to absolutely no. Although thats not really a clinch. Make sense? No? Thats okay. Everything about this year is nonsense anyway.
The Cardinals swept their doubleheader with the Pirates, so the Cubs magic number relative to them also dropped only one, down to six.
You see, although the Reds were the group most carefully behind the Cubs in the Central, they werent the team against whom the Cubs have biggest magic number. That, rather, would be the Cardinals, who were further from the Cubs in the standings, but have many more games remaining thanks to the time they lost due to their COVID outbreak.
The Cubs won again last night, which implies we know their magic number (the mix of their opponents and wins losses required to clinch) decreased, however thats where things get a little complicated.
The Reds beat up on the White Sox last night, so, relative to the Reds, the Cubs magic number dropped only one, down to four. The Reds have eight video games staying– 2 more versus the White Sox, 3 against the Brewers, and 3 against the Twins.
The Cardinals made up a half-game on the Cubs and Reds, and hence, as far as the standings are concerned, theyre now right there with the Reds at 5.5 video games behind the Cubs:
On the other hand, the Cardinals do have a favorable set of teams the remainder of the method (Pirates, Royals, Brewers, Tigers (if necessary)). So perhaps Im getting too optimistic in stating theyre toast, but with a strained roster– including one of their pitchers simply having his season ended (Dakota Hudson)– I cant see them winning more than 8, if theyre lucky sufficient to pull even that off. The Cubs simply need not to entirely fall apart.
The Cardinals still have up to 12 games left to play over the next 10 days. Even if they might manage to win 10 of those video games, if the Cubs go simply 4-5 over their last nine, the Cubs clinch. And the Cubs are getting the Pirates for four of those video games.
Youll note that I didnt actually mention the Brewers here, and theres a good reason: given that they have to play both the Reds and Cardinals from here, either theyre gon na win a lot of those games and assist eliminate those teams (but theyre a game further back), or theyre going to lose those games throughout the worst-case-scenarios described above. In either case, the Cubs magic number relative to them is just 4, and if the Brewers were to actually pull that off, then they d have made it impossible for the Cubs to fall out of the second location area while doing so. Its kinda like … whatever.
On the other hand, if you curious about the remainder of the NL Playoff Race, appearance at the mess establishing amongst the 2nd place groups and the Wild Card groups:
Even if they could manage to win 10 of those games, if the Cubs go simply 4-5 over their final nine, the Cubs clinch. And the Cubs are getting the Pirates for 4 of those video games.
The Cubs simply need not to completely fall apart.
Either method, the Cubs magic number relative to them is just 4, and if the Brewers were to really pull that off, then they d have made it impossible for the Cubs to fall out of the second place area in the process.
The back end of 10 or 11 or 12 groups bunching up for 8 playoff spots is wild. Now picture the turmoil if half them completed with identical 30-30 records. (There are no tie-break video games this year, however– just a series of tiebreakers that would choose everything, which is much less fun.).
