How does Georgia fare on 3rd down? Coaches will say the finest method to convert on third downs is to avoid them completely and convert on very first or 2nd, but Georgia faced 20 3rd downs against Arkansas and transformed only six. Assuming Auburn isnt any more generous in the big-play department (it might be a catastrophe for the Tigers if they are), Georgias offensive success will be figured out in these circumstances.
Auburn was oddly generous on third downs against Kentucky, though; the Wildcats also faced 20 of them but transformed 12. It was an odd video game, really– Kentucky went three-and-out almost half the time, however if the Wildcats transformed that first third down, they were able to drive quite far into AU territory. It kept them in the video game into the 4th quarter, and Georgia might do the very same, only with a defense that tamps down Auburns point total far better.
Can the Auburn O-line keep Bo Nix upright? SP+ was pleased enough with the Tigers last week to bump them from 11th to sixth. They held a strong performance advantage over Kentucky and controlled in both red zones, however the run game didnt have much to provide, and UK had the ability to produce rather a bit of pressure without blitzing at all. Through one game, Auburn ranks 64th in pressure rate (38%) and 50th in passing downs sack rate (11%) in spite of Nix throwing primarily short, fast passes.
Auburns rebuilt offensive line didnt get much of a passing grade, in other words, and now the Tigers have to deal with the previously mentioned top defense in football. If Auburn cant protect Nix and avoid three-and-outs, it might not matter how Georgias offense will do on its own 3rd downs.
So, Oklahomas defense is flawed once again, huh?
Week 5 video game: at Iowa State (7:30 p.m., ABC).
Reminder: OU lost against Kansas State in 2015, too, and rallied to make the CFP all the very same. We compose off the Sooners, and they charge back, overcoming average defense with continuously offending firepower. Weve seen this movie before.
That stated, even by OUs defensive requirements, seeing Kansas State consistently develop the most convenient huge plays was disconcerting. 5 Wildcats plays, including passes of 77 and 78 yards, got 261 backyards over the last 20 minutes of the video game. After balancing 4.7 lawns per play in the very first half, the Wildcats averaged 10.1 in the second. The OU offense was not without blame, however its clear where the most significant concerns lie, and its where OUs concerns have lived for a while: on D.
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UVAs offense was hazardous in spurts Saturday. The Cavaliers kept Dukes pass rush at bay, however quarterback Brennan Armstrong still had a hard time on passing downs. Disparity will likely keep Virginia from seriously difficult Clemson, however is it still remaining ahead of the chains with its run game?
Dukes defense has been good and must use more resistance than NC State did. Tech was efficient and aggressive versus State and must likewise manage Duke, but whether the Hokies are dominant or simply great may still be informing.
Week 5 playlist.
Here are 10 weekend games– at least one from each time slot– you ought to take notice of if you wish to get the absolute most out of the weekend, from both info and home entertainment point of views.
Perpetuity Eastern.
Friday night.
Louisiana Tech at No. 22 BYU (9 p.m., ESPN2): Tech can turning any video game into a track fulfill, but BYU might be legitimately amazing. Couple of groups overachieve versus the spread like the Cougars carried out in the first 2 games, and a blowout win here would state a lot.
Early Saturday.
South Carolina at No. 3 Florida (Noon, ESPN): The Gators offense looked ridiculous against Ole Miss, however South Carolina can rush the passer better. The Gamecocks could make things interesting for a while if they can get pressure on Kyle Trask.
TCU at No. 9 Texas (Noon, Fox): Either Gary Pattersons Horned Frogs make it six wins in their past 7 against the Longhorns, or Texas ends up being the official Big 12 front-runner.
Saturday afternoon.
No. 13 Texas A&M at No. 2 Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS): A&Ms performance versus Vandy might have taken a bit of the sizzle out of this one, however the Aggies still may be unsafe. Hey, were going to celebrate every top-15 match we get this year.
No. 25 Memphis at SMU (3:30 p.m., ESPN2): Memphis was as capable and explosive of creating nightmare matchups as ever in its first game, however the Tigers have not played in nearly a month and take on a fun, in-rhythm SMU squad. It will be hard to top last years 54-48 shootout between these teams, however I encourage them to try.
Central Arkansas at North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+): The Trey Lance Showcase Game! Its most likely your last opportunity to view NDSUs star quarterback in a Bisons uniform. He had a 67% conclusion rate and a TD-to-INT ratio of infinity (28-to-0) last year. Hes as good as promoted.
Saturday night.
The most significant thing to see on Saturday, then, is pretty apparent: Count Iowa States huge plays.
OU ranks last in marginal volatility permitted, a measure that looks at the magnitude of opponents successful plays and changes for field position. Protective planner Alex Grinch has actually gone all in on wreaking havoc and inadequacy, and he has actually produced because regard. OU was sixth in things rate (run stops at or behind the line) and 21st in sack rate last season, therefore far the Sooners are 25th and 14th, respectively. Theyre fifth in overall success rate permitted in 2020; that should work out as long as youre not enabling duplicated 70-plus yard bombs. Sadly.
OUs secondary is too experienced to have had the breakdowns it had against Kansas State, and now it faces an Iowa State offense that, after having a hard time against Louisiana in the season opener, discovered a minimum of a little bit of pop against TCU last week. If OU cant find some wallpaper to cover up its secondary cracks, then either Grinch will have to dial back the aggressiveness a bit or ISU will beat the Sooners like K-State did.
Does Spencer Rattler better react to press the second time around? In Rattlers first competitive start as OUs starting QB, he was picked off and sacked 3 times each.
After going 26-for-29 for 339 yards in the very first 3 quarters, Rattler went 4-for-11 for 47 in the 4th. With OUs running game producing very little pop and its defense imploding, Rattler had an absurd quantity of pressure on his shoulders and faltered, as freshmen typically do. ISUs defense is challenging to deal with, even for a veteran; will Rattler maintain his composure?
Was Texas near-loss at Texas Tech a blip or a caution sign?
Week 5 game: TCU (Noon, Fox).
Hey, sometimes you simply get drawn into a track fulfill in Lubbock. It happens to the very best people. Texas somehow stayed unbeaten (2-0) after tracking Texas Tech by 15 late in policy recently, and maybe thats all that ends up mattering. Damn, did the Longhorns look disheveled for a while.
Tech outgained the Horns by 0.5 backyards per play and outplayed them on 3rd downs. Integrate that with a shock of fumbling luck (Tech recuperated all 4 of the video games fumbles), it was almost enough to pull an upset.
Are there true fractures in the Texas facade, or was it simply a cool video game? I lean towards the latter, however here are questions to ponder as the Horns face Texas-killer TCU on Saturday.
Sam Ehlinger had the ability to assist Texas rally from a double-digit deficit late against Texas A&M last week. Can he direct the Longhorns to an early lead against TCU on Saturday? John E. Moore III/Getty ImagesWhat occurs when Texas lags the chains? The Longhorns ended up seventh in 2015 in offending SP+ and are 5th through two 2020 video games. Theyve scored 122 points, so theres little to stress over there. However if theres an indication, it remains in obvious-pass scenarios.
Texas success rate on blitz downs (second-and-super-long, third-and-5 or more) is only 17.7%, which ranks 63rd out of 72 groups. The Horns havent dealt with many blitz downs because theyve bet defenses ranked 96th (Texas Tech) and 111th (UTEP) in defensive SP+. Yet against a stronger defense like TCUs, they might fall back schedule more often. Can Sam Ehlinger dig them out?
In fact, exact same concern, other group: What happens when TCU lags the chains? Removing garbage-time snaps against UTEP, Texas has logged as numerous sacks as you or I so far this season. New defensive organizer Chris Ash didnt feel the requirement to send out your house against the outmanned Miners or Tech– theyre balancing blitzes on just 14% of challenger dropbacks (63rd in the nation) and generated minimal pressure rushing just 4 protectors.
The Horns have actually been aggressive versus the run and ought to mostly control the TCU ground game, even if blue-chip Horned Frog freshman back Zach Evans is all set to make his debut. Theyve been extremely passive versus the pass; that might make things intriguing thinking about TCU quarterback Max Duggan was dynamite after subbing in midway through the Iowa State video game. He finished 16 of 19 passes for 241 lawns and 3 scores, though his comeback quote was foiled by a late interception.
Brad Edwards crunches the numbers on the last three conferences in between the Georgia defense and Auburn ahead of their Week 2 match.
Skylar Thompson leads Kansas State with 334 lawns passing and four total goals as the Wildcats originate from behind to beat Oklahoma 38-35.
The great news about Week 5: 18 ranked groups are in action. By 2020s requirements, thats quite great.
The less great news: 13 of them are preferred by double-digits, and just four play each other. The No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 7 Auburn game (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) might be dynamite, however only No. 13 Texas A&M (+17 at Alabama), No. 18 Oklahoma (-7 against Iowa State) and No. 25 Memphis (-3 versus SMU) appear to be in any problem.
Thats OK! This is, certainly, an involved week compared to what were used to, and you can always get some questions addressed, whether groups remain in especially tight video games or not.
Week 5 allows us to find out which of the seasons early stories or unexpected launchings are real and which ones most likely are not. Lets walk through a few of the scenarios.
All times Eastern.
Texas A&M had concerns turning the ball over and with field position in its opening win over Vanderbilt. Will Jimbo Fisher be able to help the Aggies correct those concerns versus No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Florida in the next 2 weeks? Daniel Dunn/Icon Sportswire/Getty ImagesDid we drastically exaggerate Texas A&M in the preseason (once again)?
Week 5 game: at No. 2 Alabama (3:30 p.m., CBS).
It appears A&M is constantly tantalizing and always fatally flawed, but this being coach Jimbo Fishers 3rd season, with a third-year beginning quarterback and crammed defense, it was simple to compromise current history and state A&M a possible competitor. The AP ranked the Aggies 13th in the preseason, and they were a dark-horse pick from numerous to rank even higher.
2 RelatedThen, they started the season by hardly beating Vanderbilt.
A lot of the Aggies concerns in their 17-12 win versus the Commodores are not long-term. They arent likely to fumble 5 times per game or average a field-position margin of minus-14 lawns per drive progressing. Versus their initially scheduled first 4 opponents– Abilene Christian, North Texas, Colorado and Arkansas– the Aggies would have had a lot of time to break in a brand-new getting corps and remember how to hold onto the football while most likely remaining unbeaten.
Rather, A&M plays No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Florida over the next two weeks.
The Aggies will probably lose in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, however we still can start to figure out how A&M may fare down the line when playing groups not within the top three.
How many huge plays can the A&M offense handle? Efficiency and a slippery football were problems versus Vandy, however A&Ms explosive play rate– which takes a look at the number of 12-yard rushes and 16-yard passes– was 18%, which ranks 17th in the nation (4 rushes gotten a minimum of 24 backyards).
To beat or seriously challenge Alabama, teams usually need portion plays. Who from A&Ms young ability corps can beat matching Bama protectors for big gains? Anyone?
Can A&Ms defense do what Missouris couldnt? Versus a team with more zest in the pass rush and/or more skilled corners (an early injury meant Missouri provided 108 snaps to freshmen out broad), Alabamas offense might have struggled.
A&M has both of those things. It may be more capable of shutting down drives on third down if it can reproduce Mizzous first-down success.
Is Georgias offense still broken?
Week 5 video game: No. 7 Auburn (7:30 p.m., ESPN).
After jumping to first in defensive SP+ in 2019 and returning many of the factors for that jump, the Georgia defense may be the single most tested unit in college football. The Dawgs No. 32 ranking in offending SP+ last year felt generous.
One video game into 2020, they are … 68th in marginal explosiveness out of the 72 teams to have actually played up until now. When quarterback Stetson Bennett subbed in for the having a hard time DWan Mathis, he was able to generate adequate efficiency for the Dawgs to pull away from Arkansas. There were still minimal chunk plays, and the only simple points came when the defense produced them– UGAs O started at Arkansas 24 and 43 on two scoring drives, and Eric Stokes scored on a 30-yard pick-six.
The easy points will likely be even more difficult to come by versus Auburn. This video game is being played far earlier in the schedule than normal, however thats just great– we will not need to wait as long to get certain questions answered.
The No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 7 Auburn game (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) could be dynamite, however just No. 13 Texas A&M (+17 at Alabama), No. 18 Oklahoma (-7 against Iowa State) and No. 25 Memphis (-3 against SMU) appear to be in any problem. One video game into 2020, they are … 68th in marginal volatility out of the 72 groups to have played so far. Five Wildcats plays, including passes of 77 and 78 backyards, got 261 lawns over the last 20 minutes of the game. Central Arkansas at North Dakota State (3:30 p.m., ESPN+): The Trey Lance Showcase Game! No. 7 Auburn at No. 4 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ESPN): The obvious game of the week.
No. 7 Auburn at No. 4 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ESPN): The apparent video game of the week. Can Georgia figure out its QB situation? Can Auburn find any performance alternatives versus this ridiculous Georgia D and keep Nix out of third-and-long?
Navy at Air Force (6 p.m., CBS Sports): Navy has actually played 2 video games currently, while Air Force lost its beginning QB to grades and many key defenders to turnbacks. Still, the Falcons have actually had great deals of prep time to get ready for Navys already-familiar alternative attack.
Virginia at No. 1 Clemson (8 p.m., ACC Network): Yes, Clemson is going to win. But keep tabs on this one to find out precisely what Bronco Mendenhalls Cavaliers need to provide. Their defense is tough, and their offense may have a bit more bite than anticipated.
No. 18 Oklahoma at Iowa State (7:30 p.m., ABC): SP+ likes the Sooners to get better and deal with Iowa State, predicting a 35-24 win. Once again, last weeks big plays were jarring to view. OU bears the problem of evidence for a while.
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Week 5 games: Virginia Tech at Duke (4 p.m., ACC Network), Virginia at No. 1 Clemson (8 p.m., ACC Network).
Virginia and competing Virginia Tech needed to wait a bit to make their season debuts, however both looked excellent. The Cavaliers outscored Duke 38-0 in the 4th and 2nd quarters, ran the ball better than they did most of in 2015 and might have discovered a brand-new big-play hazard in freshman receiver Lavel Davis Jr. (four catches, 101 yards, 2 goals). Their 18-point win bumped them from 43rd to 33rd in SP+.
Tech, on the other hand, was one of the most excellent groups in the nation in its 45-24 Week 4 win against NC State. Despite missing rather a few players due to the coronavirus, including starting quarterback Hendon Hooker, the Hokies jumped on State, taking a 31-7 lead and averaging 9.6 backyards per play to the Wolfpacks 4.2 in the first half.
These competitors are facing very various competition in Week 5– Bronco Mendenhalls Hoos play at Clemson, while the Hokies deal with the Duke team UVA just stomped– but there are always questions to ask. The race for the ACCs second title-game slot currently is pretty crowded with Notre Dame, Miami and UNC, and well quickly find out if a couple of Virginia teams will likewise be included in that race.
