The Tigers pull out a close 30-28 win over Arkansas after junior kicker Anders Carlson hits the game-winning basket.
Georgia is Georgia, and both Kentucky and Arkansas have shown organized and well-coached this year. The next three challengers on the schedule are South Carolina, Ole Miss and LSU., and you already read about Ole Miss and LSU above.
Overachieving offenses.
Ole Miss
. Raw statistics: 11th in scoring offense (41.7 points per game), 2nd in overall offense (573 yards per video game).
SP+ (preseason and present): 38th in offensive SP+ in the preseason, 26th after six weeks.
As horrifying as Ole Miss defense has been, the Rebels challenger in an offered week has actually been almost as not successful. Combining the Knights pace and spacing with some of Kiffins well-honed passing concepts and vibrant playcalling has actually produced transcendent results so far.
Former blue-chipper Corral has produced a passer ranking over 200 in each game and is integrating a 76% conclusion rate with approximately over 16 backyards per conclusion. And even with a brief, 10-game season, he has two receivers on speed for more than 1,000 backyards: veteran receiver Elijah Moore and tight end/matchup problem Kenny Yeboah.
Week 6 of the college football season was the a lot of college football week. You had Pitt kicker Alex Kessman nailing a 58-yard field objective to require overtime versus Boston College, then missing out on a PAT to lose the video game.
Most of all, you had dissonance down South. Nick Sabans Alabama participated in the most prolific regulation video game in SEC history, a 63-48 win over Lane Kiffins Ole Miss that included 111 points and 1,370 backyards. Six other SEC groups scored a minimum of 38 points, and three weeks into the league schedule, 6 SEC teams rank 53rd or lower (out of 76 teams to have played up until now) in overall defense. That includes LSU, Florida and Alabama.
WHAT?
Using that as a prompt, lets take a look at the groups that have actually played the most out-of-character ball thus far.
Here are a few of the offenses and defenses that have overachieved or underachieved the most compared to their preseason SP+ projections. Well take a look at what theyve done particularly well or inadequately, and well look at why their fortunes may alter progressing.
( Note, the list of underachieving defenses listed below does not include Alabama since the Crimson Tide have not underachieved their forecasts as much as you might believe– they were forecasted merely 19th in defensive SP+ because of turnover in the secondary, and theyve fallen just to 22nd so far. Worry not: Youll check out plenty about the Alabama D in Fridays massive Georgia-Bama sneak peek.
Underachieving defenses
Not even including Alabama, perhaps the 3 most remarkably bad defenses in the country all live in the SEC.
Florida Gators
Week 6 outcome: Lost to Texas A&M 41-38
Raw stats: 58th in scoring defense (33.3 points per video game), 72nd in overall defense (495 yards per video game).
SP+ (preseason and present): Third in protective SP+ in the preseason, 20th after 6 weeks. As mentioned in Sundays SP+ release, a teams scores are still derived heavily from preseason projections, so its nearly impossible for a team predicted as high as 3rd to have actually fallen more than 15-20 areas hence far. If it was possible, the Gators would have done it.
The Florida defense offered up 41 indicate Kellen Mond and Texas A&M in a 41-38 loss. Scott Wachter/USA TODAY SportsMost damning weak point: Spectacular inefficiency. Florida was seventh in protective SP+ in 2019, and while the Gators did lose pass-rusher Jonathan Greenard and corner CJ Henderson, most of the two-deep returned, as did defensive organizer Todd Grantham. Perhaps you might predict passing-downs concerns if the Gators couldnt adequately change Greenard, however three games into 2020, they have actually suffered a comprehensive collapse. They are 75th out of 76 teams in success rate allowed– 74th against the run, 70th versus the pass. Big plays are volatile and random, but performance is predictive, and Floridas defensive inadequacy has actually been surprising. Texas A&M scored 41 combined points against Vanderbilt and Alabama, then published 41 on the Gators. The Aggies scored on all however 2 drives.
Florida just appears an action slow throughout the board. The Gators are dealing with their reasonable share of “missing for undefined factors” issues on the depth chart, however not more than anybody else. Their greatest problem seems to be that a lot of gamers are playing even worse than they did last year. Thats semi-encouraging in that we understand what theyre capable of, and they might revert to form eventually. But they have not yet.
Ray of sunshine: At least theyre not getting gashed deep, too. In 2019, the Gators ranked 21st in my limited explosiveness measure– my field position-adjusted measure of the magnitude of ones successful plays– and theyre currently 21st this year, too. For all of A&Ms intermediate success, the Aggies had just two gains of 25-plus yards. None of this matters if youre quiting constant 15-yard passes, as Florida did in College Station, however its at least an indication that the problems might be even worse.
LSU Tigers.
Week 6 outcome: Lost to Missouri 45-41.
Raw stats: 51st in scoring defense (32 points per video game), 71st in total defense (495 lawns per game).
SP+ (preseason and present): 25th in defensive SP+ in the preseason, 37th after 6 weeks.
Most damning weak point: Passing downs. In Saturdays loss, LSU quit a 69-yard pass on second-and-12, a 26-yarder on third-and-6, a 21-yarder on second-and-8 and a 17-yarder on second-and-10. The Tigers also offered up big plays on regular downs, to be sure, however LSUs signs have actually been two-fold: They cant knock groups off-schedule, and when they do, they get eliminated. Even by Missouris inferior receivers.
On blitz downs (second-and-super-long, third-and-5 or more), the Tigers have actually quit gains of 20-plus lawns 23% of the time (74th), and even worse, these are pretty dang simple huge plays. While Mizzous very first touchdown of the video game began a well-executed flea-flicker, Connor Bazelak likewise completed a 69-yard pass to uncovered freshman Chance Luper and a 41-yard touchdown to an impossibly wide-open Micah Wilson.
Missouri QB Connor Bazelak tosses for 406 backyards and four touchdowns while Myles Brennan passes for 430 lawns and 4 TDs in LSUs 45-41 loss.
play3:01.
play1:46.
Select the winner of 10 college football matchups each week. Play straight up or confidence. Make Your Picks.
Warning: The run video game isnt excellent. The Rebels run rates are high, however theyre only 45th in rushing success rate and 20th in basic downs success rate. Theyre counting on the pass to bail them out, and it has, however if opponents start to get a kept reading that, or if the hits on Corral start building up (theyre 56th in sack rate), that could be a problem.
On the other hand, Ole Miss ran the ball much better than it had all year against Alabama– Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy integrated for 40 brings and 248 backyards. Maybe that development will continue.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers.
Week 6 outcome: Bye week.
Raw data: Fourth in scoring offense (44.3 points per game), 26th in overall offense (441 lawns per game).
SP+ (preseason and present): 86th in offending SP+ in the preseason, 54th after six weeks.
Interaction for brand-new LSU organizer Bo Pelinis defense is nonexistent. In spite of the return of corner Derek Stingley Jr., the breakdowns in their third game were as bad as the breakdowns in their.
Ray of sunlight: The pass rush is solid. He hasnt blitzed much, Pelini has actually discovered a way to create some pressure– the Tigers are 16th in pressure rate and 30th in sack rate. If the secondary settle the “I thought you had him,” “No, I thought you had him” concerns, then they can a minimum of leave the field much better on passing downs.
Ole Miss Rebels.
Week 6 result: Lost to Alabama 63-48.
Raw statistics: 76th in scoring defense (51.7 points per game), 76th in total defense (641 lawns per video game).
SP+ (preseason and present): 41st in defensive SP+ in the preseason, 65th after 6 weeks.
A lot of damning weakness: Everything. In terms of success rate, Ole Miss is the worst FBS defense against the run, 2nd worst against the pass, worst on standard downs and 2nd worst on passing downs. Floridas Kyle Trask and Alabamas Mac Jones combined to complete 58 of 74 passes for 833 yards, eight goals, no interceptions and only 2 sacks. Defensive co-coordinators DJ Durkin and Chris Partridge are sending out your home typically (12th in blitzes per dropback) and getting nearly absolutely nothing from it (59th in sack rate, 67th in pressure rate). When they do, they cant require teams off-schedule and cant get off the field.
Ray of sunshine: Florida and Alabama are now off the schedule. Arkansas, Auburn and Vanderbilt, three of the least efficient offenses in the league so far, are next. Theres absolutely nothing saying Ole Miss can create much success versus them, however the degree of problem at least goes down a bit.
Overachieving defenses.
It felt as if nearly nobody really had a great week on defense in Week 6, however lets discuss a number of Big 12 defenses that had a rest week and have, in a function reversal with the SEC, showed up big-time so far. Well also look at Conference USAs most appealing group.
Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Week 6 outcome: Bye week.
Raw statistics: Third in scoring defense (9 points per video game), ninth in total defense (274 lawns per game).
SP+ (preseason and present): 37th in defensive SP+ in the preseason, 24th after six weeks.
2 RelatedMost encouraging strength: Successful aggression. OSU defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has for a while registered for a values dear to my heart: performance over everything. Attack, play physically and risk huge plays, charges and more big plays in the name of taking the battle to your opponent.
Against teams ranked 61st, 69th and 119th in offensive SP+, this years skilled Pokes defense has actually controlled. It is 4th in success rate permitted, and 45% of challengers ownerships have actually been three-and-outs therefore far (third in FBS).
Red flag: The great offenses are on the method. Undoubtedly, the Big 12 is not the offensive juggernaut it has actually been for the majority of the previous 15 years. Oklahoma (4th) and Texas (8th) have the only top-25 offenses, per SP+, and OSUs is the only other one ranked higher than 38th. Still, as basically the only staying College Football Playoff candidate in the Big 12, the Pokes have to maneuver past the Sooners, Longhorns and a rapidly rising Iowa State group. Oh yeah, and while OSU is 12th in total marginal volatility, its 60th on passing downs. Excellent offenses may make the Pokes appear like LSU.
West Virginia Mountaineers.
Week 6 result: Bye week.
Raw data: 13th in scoring defense (19.3 points per video game), eighth in total defense (268 yards per video game).
SP+ (preseason and present): 65th in protective SP+ in the preseason, 51st after 6 weeks.
The majority of encouraging strength: A blitz-free pass rush. Little was anticipated of a WVU defense that ranked 73rd in protective SP+ in 2015 and fired defensive planner Vic Koenning in June. Like OSU, the Mountaineers have combined effectiveness and big-play prevention in a motivating method, even if the competitors (Eastern Kentucky, Baylor and an OSU group with a freshman QB) wasnt remarkable.
The biggest standout characteristic to date is the mix of these 3 rankings: WVU is 69th in blitzes per dropback, 13th in sack rate and fourth in pressure rate. With tackles such as Darius Stills and Dante Stills, and edge rushes VanDarius Cowan, Jared Bartlett and Jalen Thornton, the Mountaineers do not have to send out more than 4 pass-rushers to effectively bug the QB. From a coverage standpoint, that offers a wonderful luxury.
Red flag: Potential concerns in run defense. This defense is quite undersized, and though the run-defense numbers have actually been solid, theyre not quite as great as the pass defense: 19th in rushing success rate permitted, 42nd in rushing limited explosiveness. The Mountaineers end up the year against Texas, TCU, Oklahoma and Iowa State, possibly the four groups more than likely to benefit from that.
Marshall Thundering Herd.
Week 6 result: Beat Western Kentucky 38-14.
Raw statistics: First in scoring defense (7 points per game), 10th in total defense (275 backyards per video game).
SP+ (preseason and present): 60th in defensive SP+ in the preseason, 31st after 6 weeks.
A lot of encouraging strength: Doc Hollidays Thundering Herd have twice finished in the protective SP+ leading 25 in the past five years however fell to 59th last season. Regardless of trying minimal disturbance overall– 65th in run things rate, 73rd in blitzes per dropback– the Herd are swarming like a top-25 D as soon as again. Linebacker Tavante Beckett is everywhere, West Virginia transfer Derrek Pitts is an existence in the secondary, and Marshall ranks both 17th in success rate and second in marginal volatility enabled.
The Herd force you to dink and soak, wait on you to slip up, and strike. And theyre 3-0 having actually already beaten the 2 most highly-ranked groups on the schedule in Appalachian State and a WKU team that has undoubtedly dissatisfied. Difficulties remain, however the defense has turned Marshall into the Conference USA front-runner.
Warning: The absence of disturbance might eventually backfire. The C-USA East is not packed with effective offenses at the minute, but if a challenger is client and mistake-free enough to take a few yards at a time and control the ball, it might put the Herd offense under more pressure than it can handle to keep up on the scoreboard.
Underachieving offenses.
Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Week 6 outcome: Lost to Kentucky 24-2.
Raw data: 66th in scoring offense (20 points per video game), 25th in overall offense (442 backyards per game).
SP+ (preseason and present): 26th in offensive SP+ in the preseason, 41st after 6 weeks.
Since K.J. Costello tossed for 623 backyards versus LSU, Mississippi States Air Raid offense has actually been grounded. AP Photo/Bryan WoolstonMost damning weakness: The big-play spigot has been turned off. It was only two weeks ago that K.J. Costello was throwing for approximately 1,700 lawns (OK, 623) against LSUs dysfunctional defense. That output included seven conclusions of at least 30 lawns and eight more of a minimum of 20.
Ever since: a 34-yard completion versus Arkansas, a 23-yarder versus Kentucky … whichs it. Costello has balanced a paltry 6.9 yards per completion ever since, which, combined with seven interceptions, has ground the Mike Leach Air Raid to an overall halt. Both Arkansas and Kentucky played the type of bend-don t-break defense Leach offenses often see, but Leachs brand-new charges have not even somewhat found out how to handle it.
Ray of sunshine: This is nothing Leach hasnt dealt with before. Disregarding Leachs gross quotes about requiring a “purge” of “malcontents,” the bottom line is that, like a seasoned old triple-option coach, Leach has seen every defense understood to male by this point. If or when his receivers and passers get closer to the very same page, the offense should at least work its way back to average. “Average” isnt what we were expecting two weeks earlier, however its the most practical aspiration at the moment.
Auburn Tigers.
Week 6 outcome: Beat Arkansas 30-28.
Raw stats: 62nd in scoring offense (21.7 points per video game), 67th in total offense (329 lawns per game).
SP+ (preseason and present): Seventh in offending SP+ in the preseason, 33rd after six weeks.
A lot of damning weak point: They still cant pass. Given, the Tigers get reward points for having faced Georgia currently– they have averaged a far more bearable 29.5 points and 385 yards against mortal defenses. Still, those arent fantastic numbers, and without freshman running back Tank Bigsby producing a career-high 146 lawns versus Arkansas, they would be 1-2 since the passing game when again stunk.
I called quarterback Bo Nix the second-most important player of the 2020 season since of the impact he could have if he were to delight in a second-year leap behind. So far, he has not. He has finished 57% of his passes at just 11.1 backyards per conclusion, his passer score is a simple 121, and hes taking far a lot of sacks in obvious pass situations. Even with a durable run video game, Auburn ranks simply 49th in success rate and 66th in minimal volatility.
Freshman quarterback Grayson McCall has completed 67% of his passes at 17.3 backyards per completion, and he has actually thrown only one interception in his first 63 passes of the season. The run game keeps the Chants on schedule, then McCall passes over the top of the defense. The defense (31st in points per drive allowed) might understand what its doing, too.
Warning: What happens when the deep balls do not connect? The run video game has actually produced next to no explosiveness, and when the conferences better defenses– Appalachian State, Louisiana, Georgia Southern, Troy– turn up on the schedule, Coastal might not have the ability to depend on the deep shots as much. That may make McCall look a lot more like a freshman. The real tests begin Wednesday, when the Chants travel to deal with Louisiana. Cant wait for that one.
Week 6 of the college football season was the many college football week. Six other SEC teams scored at least 38 points, and three weeks into the league schedule, six SEC groups rank 53rd or lower (out of 76 groups to have actually played so far) in total defense. SP+ (preseason and present): Third in defensive SP+ in the preseason, 20th after six weeks. It was just 2 weeks ago that K.J. Costello was throwing for roughly 1,700 lawns (OK, 623) versus LSUs dysfunctional defense. As terrible as Ole Miss defense has actually been, the Rebels challenger in an offered week has actually been almost as unsuccessful.
