Fantasy Football Week 13: Starts, sits, sleepers & busts, and betting notes for every game on the NFL schedule – CBS Sports

December brings holiday cheer and cold temperatures. Only one of those things actually impacts a football game. Now is a good time of year to spend a couple of minutes each week checking the weather reports before finalizing your lineups. Cold temperatures will impact dome teams and squads that usually play in warm weather cities. Snow isn’t a big deal unless it’s coming down in heaps. Rain also isn’t that big of a deal unless it’s pouring. Wind, however, is the biggest factor. We’ve seen it already this season. If you’re starting players in a game with winds blowing at 25-plus mph, think twice. 

More Week 13 help: Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em | Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em: QB | Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em: RB | Start ‘Em & Sit ‘Em: WR | Trade Values Chart | FFT Newsletter | RB Preview | QB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | Waiver Wire | Panic About Struggling Stars? | Winners and Losers | Believe It Or Not  

All lines from William Hill Sportsbook.

The line wants us to believe: It’s Derrick Henry season! The public might be more dialed in to Henry, but it’s not like the Browns have a bad run game, either. And both defenses struggle defending the run. I think the line is designed to get people to take the Titans, so I like the Browns’ side, but here’s the hang-up: Every Browns loss has been by seven-plus points, and each of the Titans’ past five wins have been by — you guessed it — six or more points.

The line wants us to believe: Las Vegas’ blowout loss last week was meaningless. I don’t think the general public would consider the Jets at minus-6 or less, but eight points at home is generous. The Raiders have injuries on their O-line and D-line and their defense really hasn’t been that great all year anyway. This might be the Jets’ last game they can feasibly win. I love getting the points here, and I think the Jets can win.

The line wants us to believe: Jacksonville just isn’t any good. This is wild: The Jaguars are bigger underdogs against the Vikings than they were last week against the Browns, and they hung with the Browns! If Minnesota were the kind of squad that was willing to outscore their opponents by running up 30-plus points per week, then this line would make sense. But they’re a little more conservative than that. They have one win this year by 10-plus points. It almost feels like a trap to take the Jaguars, but I’m thinking they can score two or three touchdowns, which their 21-point implied total suggests.

The line wants us to believe: Even with Tua Tagovailoa starting, the Dolphins are massively better. Before you think that the Dolphins have a better chance to rack up points with Ryan Fitzpatrick, recognize that they scored at least 28 points in each of Tagovailoa’s first three starts, all wins. And in none of them did they cover 11.5 points. However, the Bengals are every bit as bad as their 15.25 implied point total suggests. The oddsmakers had to make this line large just to try to get some action on the Bengals. It’s not large enough.

The line wants us to believe: Philip Rivers won’t be a liability — like he was last week. He threw the ball last week like his arm was 50 years old, he’s got a banged up toe and a beat-up offensive line. I know the matchup is cake but Rivers cannot be considered a safe passer. If the Colts defensive line is without DeForest Buckner again, it’s a big-time trap to take them even if the Texans don’t have field-stretching receiver Will Fuller anymore.

The line wants us to believe: Detroit can keep things close. One of my favorite stats from the year: The Lions have yet to lose a game by three or fewer points this season. Another favorite stat, because it’s random: Mitchell Trubisky has three passing touchdowns in each of his past four against the Lions. Detroit’s defense lost big DT Danny Shelton and cornerback Desmond Trufant to injuries — it’s finally a win-able matchup for Chicago.

The line wants us to believe: Despite what happened two weeks ago in New Orleans, the Falcons will keep things close. This is a tricky game to project because the Falcons defense looked outstanding last week and because they’ve digested two weeks of film on Taysom Hill. But the line seems set to attract people to take on the Saints. Who wouldn’t take them after they annihilated the Falcons literally 14 days ago?! That’s what the oddsmakers want you to do! This fishy line makes me want to actually, wittingly, knowingly put my faith in the Falcons. It feels gross but I’m following the signs.

The line wants us to believe: Daniel Jones’ injury will lead to another embarrassing Giants loss. While I suspect the Giants offense will be hindered with Colt McCoy under center, I also think their defense isn’t that bad. Seattle, meanwhile, seems to be pulling the reins in on Russell Wilson. It feels like it might take a defensive touchdown, or multiple turnovers from the Seahawks defense, for their offense to win comfortably. I don’t think their defense is quite good enough to count on that. The Giants should cover.

The line wants us to believe: The Rams loss last week was a mirage. Maybe it was, but there are no mirages over what’s happened to the Cardinals offense since Kyler Murray hurt his shoulder. They simply aren’t attacking downfield as much and they’re leaning on their running backs more. That makes the matchup easier for the Rams defense to deal with. That’s the side I’d like to be on.

The line wants us to believe: The Chargers have a chance. So the team with the greatest coach of this era is on an even playing field with a team that’s coached its way out of multiple wins this year?! Candidly, the line is an indictment of just how underwhelming the Patriots have played on both sides of the ball, and if you haven’t seen them play then you wouldn’t know it and you’d bet on the Patriots. You shouldn’t.

The line wants us to believe: The Eagles are just as bad as the Bears were last week. The Packers are favored by 8.5 for the second week in a row. Philadelphia is in a major rut — three straight losses — but only one was by more than eight points … though one could argue it should have been two. It’s hard to believe anyone would take the Eagles if they were given fewer points, so the oddsmakers are probably putting out a fair line. Six of the Packers’ eight wins this season have been by nine-plus points. That’s the side I’ll be on.

The line wants us to believe: Uh, that the Chiefs can’t win by three scores? What am I supposed to say here? Denver is an interesting team that shouldn’t be penalized by anything that came out of last week’s quarterback-less game. But they stunk up the joint against the Chiefs earlier this year and figure to do so again. So why isn’t the spread 17 or 20 points? Forget I asked and just take the Chiefs.

The line wants us to believe: Washington is a crummy team. In each of their past six games, Ron Rivera’s crew has either lost within a three-point margin or won. And on five days rest and without pass rusher Bud Dupree (and maybe without center Maurkice Pouncey), the Steelers are ripe for a let-down game. Washington’s defense has managed to play well and actually set up nicely to contain the Steelers passing game. Taking the points feels safer.

The line wants us to believe: The Niners’ win last week was legit. It helps that San Francisco is getting healthy on both sides of the ball. The team also got great play from its front seven. We’re starting to see Josh Allen struggle as the leader of the Bills offense, and I doubt their run game can be much of a counter-punch. I’ve touted Buffalo’s lines as unfair for much of the year, but this one is begging you to take them as road faves. Don’t do it.

The line wants us to believe: Dallas is toast. The line (BAL -6.5) is based on Lamar Jackson starting for the Ravens, but who else is available? If the defense gets Matt Judon, Brandon Williams and Calais Campbell back then this game is gonna get ugly. If not, it could still get ugly because Dallas’ O-line is ugly. Seriously, who would take the Cowboys here?! It’s not enough points. Hmm, maybe that makes it a sucker line, but all but one of the Ravens’ wins have been by at least seven points. I’d trust them.