Imagine two hypothetical tight ends who play on teams in the National Football Conference.
Tight end No. 1 has 54 catches, 572 receiving yards, one touchdown and eight drops. When targeted by quarterbacks, tight end No. 1 has produced a passer rating of 56.1. He is catching 56.8 percent of targets and averaging 6.0 yards per target. By DVOA, tight end No. 1 ranks 40th out of 43 qualified players at the position.
Tight end No. 2 has 49 catches, 551 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns and zero drops. When targeted by quarterbacks, tight end No. 2 has produced a passer rating of 148.0. He is catching 89.1 percent of targets and averaging 10.0 yards per target. By DVOA, tight end No. 2 ranks 1st out of 43 qualified players at the position.
Pro Bowl voters picked tight end No. 1 to represent the NFC over tight end No. 2.
Of course, the first player is New York Giants tight end Evan Engram, while the second player is Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan.
Engram will be the Pro Bowler, while Tonyan is one of the biggest Pro Bowl snubs.
Here’s the comparison above in chart form:
Evan Engram | Robert Tonyan | |
Catches | 54 | 49 |
Targets | 95 | 55 |
Catch% | 56.8 | 89.1 |
Receiving yards | 572 | 551 |
Touchdowns | 1 | 10 |
Yards/target | 6.0 | 10.0 |
Passer rating when targeted | 56.1 | 148.0 |
Drops | 8 | 0 |
DVOA rank (out of 43) | 40th | 1st |
Yards per route run | 1.28 | 1.64 |
First downs | 28 | 30 |
Fumbles | 1 | 0 |
Tonyan is first among receivers and tight ends in catch percentage. He is tied with Travis Kelce for the NFL lead in touchdown catches, and he became just the third tight end in franchise history to reach 10 touchdowns, joining Paul Coffman (1982) and Keith Jackson (1996). After catching a touchdown pass on Saturday against the Panthers, Tonyan now has at least one score in five straight games. He and Kelce are the only tight ends averaging at least 10.0 yards per target. Overall, Aaron Rodgers has more touchdown passes when targeting Tonyan than incompletions. With 10 touchdown catches and an average per target of 10.0 yards, Tonyan is on pace to be just the fourth tight end in history to hit both marks in a single season.
Engram, one of the most inefficient and inconsistent tight ends in football, has dropped more passes (eight) than Rodgers has incompletions targeting Tonyan.
The Pro Bowl often makes little sense. This is still one of the most baffling voting decisions in recent memory. In almost every way, Robert Tonyan is a better tight end than Evan Engram, as the numbers clearly illustrate.