For just the second time in six seasons, the Minnesota Vikings will enter Week 17 with no playoff aspirations, meaning Sunday’s meeting with the Detroit Lions could mark the end of the road for numerous key players in purple.
There was a mass exodus on defense last offseason as the Vikings rectified a bloated cap situation, but the team could be staring at another offseason with significant turnover as they make decisions on key free agents and again look to shed exorbitant salaries.
These five players may have the foggiest futures with the team, so let’s evaluate each situation and weigh whether or not each player might return.
LB ERIC WILSON
CONTRACT STATUS: Unrestricted Free Agent
2020 REVIEW: If this is it for Eric Wilson in Minnesota, it was certainly a good run. Wilson will go down as one of the top undrafted signings of the Zimmer-Spielman era along with Anthony Harris. His role gradually increased each year until he inherited the job as starting base linebacker in 2020. That turned into starting strongside linebacker in Week 3 with Anthony Barr (pectoral) ruled out for the season. Wilson stuffed the stat sheet with three sacks, three interceptions and two fumble recoveries while also accepting play-calling responsibilities. After Kendricks’ injury in Week 13, Wilson was the only starter left standing at linebacker. He hasn’t missed a game in four seasons.
2021 OUTLOOK: Wilson’s success may have priced him out of the Vikings’ range. On the open market, Wilson could use Nick Kwiatkoski‘s free-agent contract last season as a floor. The part-time starter for four years with the Chicago Bears had similar stats to Wilson and signed a 3-year, $21 million deal with the Las Vegas Raiders. The Vikings aren’t going to pay Wilson big money to settle back into a role as the third linebacker once Barr returns. Minnesota would have to release Barr and eat $7.8 million in dead cap to even consider keeping Wilson around, which seems unlikely. Barr may be asked to take a pay cut, but he’s probably sticking around, and he is far better as a tackler than Wilson.
CHANCE OF RETURN: 5%
S ANTHONY HARRIS
CONTRACT STATUS: Unrestricted Free Agent
2020 REVIEW: It was nowhere near the season Anthony Harris hoped to have after teeing himself up for a life-changing payday with his six interceptions in 2019. Yes, Harris made over $11 million playing on the franchise tag this year, but things never quite felt right. He dealt with trade rumors around the draft, failed extension talks, and additional trade rumors at the deadline. All the while he seemed to struggle to adjust to life with rookie corners as the strain on Minnesota’s safeties was greater than ever before. Harris recorded no interceptions through 15 weeks, missed a career-high nine tackles, and found himself guessing incorrectly on several coverages that resulted in splash plays. Harris ranks 32nd out of starting safeties on Pro Football Focus compared to his No. 2 rank a season ago.
2021 OUTLOOK: Though his stock is likely depressed from this point last year, Harris may still seek a multi-year deal with the highest bidder since he may not get another chance to cash in big considering he’s already 29 years old. The Vikings don’t have a clear safety to replace Harris, which could mean a rookie playing next to Harrison Smith next year. If that scenario is a little too scary for Minnesota, perhaps they’ll take the temperature of what Harris would need to stick around, but the prospect of giving a long-term deal to Harris doesn’t present good positional value considering their tenuous cap situation. Minnesota only has so many dollars to spend this offseason, and the Vikings should have more pressing priorities.
CHANCE OF RETURN: 5%
DT SHAMAR STEPHEN
CONTRACT STATUS: Signed through 2021 | 2021 Cap Hit: $5.08 million | Dead Money: $1.33 million
2020 REVIEW: It’s been covered repeatedly how much the Vikings missed nose tackle Michael Pierce this year. The big free-agent pick-up opted out due to COVID-19 and should return in 2021. Shamar Stephen flipped from 3-technique to nose tackle to take Pierce’s place, a role that suited Stephen better, but his season still left plenty to be desired. He generated nine pressures (T57th out of 69) and 16 run stops (T50th out of 69), per PFF, despite playing the most snaps of his career.
2021 OUTLOOK: If the team wasn’t so emphatic about Stephen’s talent, it would be tough to see a role for Stephen on the 2021 team. Pierce will start at nose, and third-year defensive tackle Armon Watts can be a cheap, capable, higher-upside backup. Backup noses shouldn’t be making over $5 million, let alone third-string nose tackles. The Vikings can save over $3.7 million by cutting Stephen, which seems like an easy move. But the club’s insistence that Stephen’s impact goes beyond the box score leaves an ounce of hesitation.
CHANCE OF RETURN: 10%
TE KYLE RUDOLPH
CONTRACT STATUS: Signed through 2023 | 2021 Cap Hit: $9.45 million | Dead Money: $4.35 million
2020 REVIEW: Aside from a nifty one-handed touchdown grab in Week 3, it was a quiet year for Kyle Rudolph, who’s been forced to watch from the sidelines during Minnesota’s current three-game slide, ending his ironman streak at 90-plus games in a row. If he doesn’t play Sunday against Detroit, Rudolph will finish with 334 yards, his lowest since an injury-riddled 2014. He remained useful as a run-blocker for Dalvin Cook and continued to fill a much-needed leadership role on a young team, but Irv Smith Jr. and even Tyler Conklin have shown in recent weeks that life after Rudolph may look OK.
2021 OUTLOOK: It was never likely that Rudolph would see the end of his four-year extension that he signed in 2019. Considering his diminishing returns on the field and his recent injury status, the Vikings probably have the grounds to come to Rudolph with a restructure proposal. The tight end turned 31 in November and may see the writing on the wall that his time as the top tight end in town is ending. Considering the mutual loyalty between the two sides, however, it wouldn’t be outrageous to see Rudolph accept a reduced salary in a community where he’s raising a family and has numerous charitable causes. The Vikings still need a deep tight end room in Gary Kubiak‘s offense, and Rudolph remains a viable red-zone threat.
CHANCE OF RETURN: 30%
OT RILEY REIFF
CONTRACT STATUS: Signed through 2021 | 2021 Cap Hit: $11.75 million (per Pioneer Press) | Dead Money: NA
2020 REVIEW: Riley Reiff just gets better with age, and he’s making the Vikings’ decision much harder than once anticipated. Reiff seems to have taken nicely to Kubiak’s scheme. He built on a good 2019 with an even better 2020 that almost didn’t happen when the Vikings approached him to take a pay cut. Making less than half his original salary, Reiff allowed the fewest pressures (20) of any tackle that’s played 1,000 or more snaps. His pass-blocking grade, per Pro Football Focus, is on track to be his best since 2014. Reiff has also been durable, missing just four starts in four seasons with the Vikings.
2021 OUTLOOK: Reiff’s willingness to accept a pay cut may again be tested, and it’s not clear what his dead money is under the parameters of his restructured deal. Per the Pioneer Press, the Vikings owe Reiff $5 million at the start of the league year and would reportedly be on the hook for an $11.75 million cap hit (down from his original agreement of $13.95 million). That’s a lot of dough, but again, Reiff has been solid and presumed left tackle of the future Ezra Cleveland made a transition to guard this year. It’s possible another restructure would provide incentives like Reiff’s 2020 agreement, which enabled him to make $2 million back in playing time bonuses. Alternatively, the Vikings could get Reiff’s cap number down through a short extension that offers guarantees spread out over multiple seasons. Reiff’s first couple seasons in Minnesota were underwhelming enough that fans never grew attached to the left tackle, but it’s suddenly plausible he stays with the Vikings through 2021 if the parties can agree.
CHANCE OF RETURN: 50%
