FanDuel Daily Fantasy Basketball Helper: Friday 1/29/21 – numberFire

If you’re new to daily fantasy basketball — maybe you started your DFS journey during the MLB or NFL seasons, or maybe basketball is your sport and this will be your first year giving it a shot — you’re in for a treat. The NBA scene changes on a week-to-week, day-to-day, and — depending on injury news — even a minute-to-minute basis, making every slate a unique one that requires an ever-changing approach.

With so much changing so quickly, we’re here with plenty of tools to help you out. We have daily projections, a matchup heat map, a lineup optimizer, and a bunch of other great resources to help give you an edge.

Daily fantasy NBA is very reliant on opportunity, so you’ll need to make sure that you’re up-to-date with key injuries and COVID-19 situations. Our projections update up until tip-off to reflect current news and we also have player news updates.

We’ll also be coming at you with this primer every day, breaking down a few of the day’s top plays at each position.

Please note: When I’m referencing a player’s value figure, it is the number of fantasy points scored for every $1,000 in salary. Typically, a value figure of 5.0 (meaning, 5.0 FanDuel points for every $1,000 in salary) is the minimum baseline we’ll be targeting.

Let’s take a look at who you should target on tonight’s 10-game slate, which locks at 7:00 PM Eastern.

Slate Overview

Via Brandon Gdula‘s matchup sheet, this table shows each team’s spread and implied total (plus the over/under for their game). It also includes opponent-adjusted offensive rating and the adjusted defensive rating for each team’s opponent, including league-wide ranks for each.

Teams are sorted by implied team total.

Point Guard

Core Plays and Value Options: Darius Garland ($5,200) has seen an uptick in minutes in each of his four games back from injury — topping out at 31.3 on Wednesday. Garland’s showcased huge upside when playing heavy minutes this season, and our model projects for 28.5 FanDuel points in 34.1 minutes of action — making him the second-best value at the position. For $100 over the minimum, you can roster Theo Maledon ($3,600) with George Hill out again. In the last two games with Hill out, Maledon’s seen 21.7 and 30.0 minutes of action. He dropped 22.2 FanDuel points in Wednesday’s victory over the Phoenix Suns.

Studs to Consider: Joel Embiid is questionable tonight, and if he’s inactive, Ben Simmons ($8,600) could be in for quite the workload. Simmons will also benefit from the fact that he’s playing the Minnesota Timberwolves, the team that ranks third-worst against point guards when adjusted for competition. Simmons has equaled at least 44.5 FanDuel points in four of his last seven outings. While the Charlotte Hornets are a middling matchup for point guards, Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300) did drop 43.4 FanDuel points on them two days ago, and this was after posting 57.9 fantasy points on Monday. Brogdon should continue to see a heavy role as long as T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert are out. Our model’s top-projected value at point guard is Kyle Lowry ($7,200). Lowry’s projected for a total of 40.5 FanDuel points at a salary of just $7,200. He’ll be facing a Sacramento Kings defense that’s second-to-last against the position. Finally, I will never (double negatives for the win) not consider De’Aaron Fox ($7,900) at a salary under $8,000. Fox has eclipsed 40 FanDuel points 10 times this season. With Kevin Durant declared out, Kyrie Irving ($9,200) is pretty close to being a key stud. Kyrie has racked up at least 45 fantasy points in four of his last five games.

Other Studs to Consider: Luka Doncic ($11,500) is always worthy of consideration, even as the most expensive player on the slate. Doncic managed just 42.8 against the Utah Jazz on Wednesday, which means he should see a low roster percentage tonight — that alone makes him worth some exposure. In that same games, Mike Conley ($6,700) could return solid value if Donovan Mitchell (concussion) is out again.

Shooting Guard

Key Studs: At shooting guard, we’ll start with studs. Bradley Beal ($10,500) is on the slate in a game against the Atlanta Hawks with the highest projected total. Beal has posted at least 53.5 FanDuel points in four of his last seven games, and two of those came with Russell Westbrook in the lineup. On the season, Beal hasn’t had a single game with fewer than 40 fantasy points, giving him one of the safest floors on the slate. We also have Fred VanVleet ($8,300) in a salivating matchup. FVV faces a Kings squad that ranks dead last against shooting guards this season. VanVleet has recorded at least 42 FanDuel points in four of his last five efforts. James Harden ($9,800) is definitely in play with Kevin Durant out tonight. Harden has garnered at least 52 FanDuel points in four of his seven games with the Brooklyn Nets.

Other Studs to Consider: The Nets have ceded the ninth-most fantasy points to shooting guards this season, which brings Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,500) firmly into play. SGA has topped 47 FanDuel points in 7 of his last 11 games.

Core Plays and Value Options: If Donovan Mitchell is out again, Jordan Clarkson ($5,800) is once again a no-brainer. Clarkson whipped up 43.4 fantasy points on Wednesday with Mitchell out. In total, Clarkson has exceeded 33 FanDuel points in 6 of his last 10 games, and he only needs 29 for a 5.0 value figure tonight. Our model’s top-projected value at the position is Alec Burks ($5,300). Burks should be more of a priority only if Reggie Bullock were to miss his third straight game.

Other Options: Kevin Huerter ($4,800) gets a titillating matchup, and he should garner consideration, especially if Cam Reddish can’t go. Collin Sexton ($6,900) has had outputs of 63.5, 39.9, and 43.5 in three of his five games since his return. The matchup isn’t great, but the salary is ideal for that kind of upside. Finally, Anthony Edwards ($4,500) shouldn’t go under the radar if D’Angelo Russell were to miss another game. The 2020 first overall pick is averaging 28.2 fantasy points over his last three with Russell out.

Small Forward

Core Plays and Value Options: Doug McDermott ($4,500) and Justin Holiday ($4,600) are squaring off against a Charlotte team that ranks dead last against small forwards this campaign. McDermott needs 22.5 FanDuel points to achieve a 5.0 value figure tonight, and he’s topped that number with ease in seven of his last nine. Holiday doesn’t quite have as a low a floor as McDermott, though McDermott has scored 24-plus FanDuel points more consistently. Evan Fournier ($6,300) needs 31.5 fantasy points to accrue a 5.0 value figure, and he topped that number in each of his five games since he’s returned. With KD out, Joe Harris ($4,700) ranks third-worst against a Thunder defense that ranks third-worst against small forwards.

Other options: Danny Green ($4,000) and Miles Bridges ($4,200) are our model’s top-two projected values at the position.

Key Studs: The last eight times Kawhi Leonard ($10,500) has sat out at least one game for the Clippers, he has posted an average of 57.1 FanDuel points in his return to the lineup — that includes at least 54.1 in all but one of those outings. Kawhi had recorded 58.1, 56.6, and 56.8 fantasy points in the three games before his absence, and he’ll face a Magic team that’s below average against both forward positions. Gordon Hayward ($7,600) is coming off a game in which he scored just 16 real-life points and 25.2 FanDuel points. Hayward has now failed to produce at least 20 real-life points seven times this season — in the previous six instances, he followed it up with an average of 43 fantasy points.

Mid-Tier Options: Malik Beasley ($6,700) and RJ Barrett ($6,400) get matchups with the teams that rank fourth and fifth-worst against small forwards. Beasley has amassed 41.3 and 36.3 FanDuel points in his last two games — he’s a solid option if Russell can’t suit up. Barrett would need 32 fantasy points for our baseline value, which is a number he’s failed to reach in three straight after surpassing it in the four games prior. Keldon Johnson ($5,600) gets a $1,000 drop in salary, which puts him back on our radars. Johnson would need 28 fantasy points for a 5.0 value figure, and he’s bested that number 11 times in 2020-21.

Power forward

Key Studs: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300) sits atop a power forward position that is absolutely loaded. Giannis is our model’s top-projected scorer on this slate, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that the Milwaukee Bucks have an implied total of 118.8 against the New Orleans Pelicans. The two-time MVP has transcended 56 FanDuel points seven times this season, and five of those have come in his seven games away from home. Domantas Sabonis ($9,000) draws a Hornets defense that’s allowing the second-most fantasy points to power forwards this season. Sabonis has produced more than 48 fantasy points in four of his last seven games.

Core Plays and Value Options: numberFire’s top-projected value at power forward is James Johnson ($4,300). Johnson’s recorded 27.1 and 34.9 fantasy points in his last two, and he would only need 21.5 for 5x value. Our models have him projected for 29.6. Following Johnson, Chris Boucher ($6,500) and Aaron Gordon ($6,300) are our algorithm’s next two best-projected values. Boucher’s playing time has been frustratingly inconsistent, but his upside is undeniable. Gordon is coming off his worst game of the season on Wednesday, which has led to a $500 drop in salary. Gordon had averaged 44.1 fantasy points in the four games prior to that dud. Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,700) will continue to be a worthwhile option as long as Karl-Anthony Towns remains out of the lineup. Vanderbilt is averaging 31.6 fantasy points over his last four.

Other option: LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,700) isn’t a model of consistency, but he does have the upside to win you some dough. Aldridge has trumped 30 fantasy points in 6 of his last 11 efforts, including four games with more than 37.

Center

Key Studs: Let’s get this out of the way — if Joel Embiid ($9,800) is active, he’s a core play. Embiid would face a Wolves team that ranks dead last against centers this season. Elsewhere, we have Andre Drummond ($9,400) and Rudy Gobert ($8,700). Drummond’s squaring off against the Knicks, who are surrendering the second-most fantasy points to the position this season. Meanwhile, Gobert is fresh off a game in which he erupted for 70.5 FanDuel points just two days ago. With Mitchell out, Gobert’s 29% usage rate was by far his highest of the season.

Value options: Naz Reid ($5,800) has been quite productive without KAT in the lineup, as he’s averaged 35.2 FanDuel points over his last five. Reid will be an especially solid play if he doesn’t have to face Embiid tonight. Al Horford ($5,500) exploded for 49.2 fantasy points in his return to the lineup for the Thunder, and tonight he’ll face a Nets team that’s struggled to defend the interior, especially since they traded Jarrett Allen.