The 2021 NFL offseason is going to come with plenty of headaches for NFL general managers. The salary cap is expected to drop roughly $30 million from initial projections of around $210 million because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Teams with little or no salary cap space are going to have to make some difficult decisions when it comes to free agency and even players on their own rosters.
The cap is expected to land somewhere around $181 million, which is a decrease of almost $20 million from the $198 million limit in 2020. According to Spotrac.com (all figures below are from this website), the Bills current cap sits at $182,029,068 for their Top 51 contracts in 2021. That figure would put them a little more than a million dollars over the anticipated cap limit.
That means general manager Brandon Beane is going to have to hold true to his words and make some tough choices when it comes to his roster this offseason.
Here are five moves the Bills can make to open up some cap dollars as they try to improve their roster in hopes of improving on this season’s finish with a loss in the AFC Championship game.
1. Release wide receiver John Brown
2021 salary cap hit: $9.531 million
This is probably the toughest decision Beane faces when it comes to his current roster and players under contract. The Bills passing attack was one of the best in the league and Brown’s presence – when he was healthy – made the Bills’ “Big 3″ with Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley almost unstoppable.
The issue with Brown, 30, was the lack of availability. He was banged up most of the season and when he returned over the final few games and into the playoffs he just wasn’t as impactful. In three playoff games Brown had just 10 catches for 86 yards, and was held to just two for 24 yards in the AFC title game.
Buffalo drafted Gabriel Davis in the fourth round of last year’s draft and Isaiah Hodgins in the sixth. With Diggs and Beasley commanding the lion’s share of the targets, Buffalo can look to the free agent market for a speedy receiver to replace Brown and a much lower cost during a cash-strapped season. One option that could be a fit is former first-round pick John Ross, who underperformed in Cincinnati and could be had for a modest deal.
Savings after release: $7.931 million
2. Restructure center Mitch Morse’s contract
2021 salary cap hit: $10.343 million | Cap hit after restructure: $5.343 million
It was a strange season for Morse, who has brought stability to an offensive line that was lacking in that department before his arrival in free agency in 2019. But when he suffered the fifth documented concussion of his career against the New England Patriots on Nov. 1, the 29-year-old’s status with the organization seemed to come into question.
Morse missed the next two games but was a healthy scratch against the Arizona Cardinals despite being cleared to play. Beane revealed last month that the team just wanted to be cautious with Morse, whose history of head injuries has always been a concern.
The Bills could save $4.8 million if they just cut Morse this offseason, but then they’d be without a Pro Bowl caliber player in the middle of their offensive line. Jon Feliciano is a free agent and could potentially slide over to be the new full time center, but Beane’s comments seemed to indicate there’s belief in continuing on with Morse.
“Mitch is never going to be a guy that’s going to mow a nose tackle three yards down the field,” Beane said when discussing how Morse maybe wasn’t utilized as much when it comes to his strengths, especially in the run game. “But at the end of the day I thought he played well overall this season, and especially the second half of the season, I thought he did.”
Restructuring Morse’s contract won’t take any money away from him. What would likely happen is the Bills approach their franchise center and attempt to convert part of his $10+ million cap hit in 2021 into a signing bonus that he’d receive right away and the cap impact would be spread over the final year of his deal. Effectively the Bills would be kicking the can down the road, but that makes a ton of sense considering next year’s cap is expected to jump back up.
Savings after restructure: $5 million
3. Release defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson
2021 salary cap hit: $8 million
Jefferson is a versatile defensive linemen that was expected to be a significant addition for the Bills in 2020. The thought after he signed following four seasons in Seattle was that he’d have a larger role in a Buffalo defense that lost a ton on the d-line from 2019. Jordan Phillips, Shaq Lawson, and Star Lotutlelei (opt out) were all gone and it was up to Jefferson and other new pieces on the line to pick up the slack.
Jefferson, 27, played less snaps in 2020 with the Bills than he did in either of his final two seasons in Seattle. He just simply wasn’t effective and finished with three sacks on the year. Bringing him back and having him for a second season in the system would make sense in most years. But with the cap savings and the lack of playing time down the stretch, it just makes sense to move on.
Savings after release: $6.5 million
4. Restructure defensive end Mario Addison’s contract
2021 salary cap hit: $10.162 million | Cap hit after restructure: $5.162 million
When first considering what the Bills should do with Addison it’s easy to look at the savings from simply cutting him ($6.1 million) and think that might just be the easier route. But with a $4 million dead cap hit and the role Addison played in the locker room in his first season in Buffalo, that thought starts to become less ideal.
Addison has two years left on his deal. After posting just five sacks in the first year of a three-year deal that’s paying him roughly $10 million per season, pushing some of that money to next season may be the best move for Beane if he wants to keep Addison in the mix for next season. He’ll turn 34 years old before next season.
Savings after release: $5 million
5. Release defensive tackle Vernon Butler
2021 salary cap hit: $7.818 million
There is only one scenario where it makes sense for the Bills to move on from Butler: If they’re able to find an upgrade. The Carolina Panthers released Kawann Short this week and, although he is considerably older than Butler, becomes an immediate upgrade at an important position in Sean McDermott’s defense.
Butler, 26, flashed a few times last season but was mostly a disappointing addition. To be fair the entirety of the Bills interior defensive line was forced to try and make up for the loss of Lotulelei. Butler, Justin Zimmer and Ed Oliver all played somewhat out of position at times when they were asked to line up over the center.
Short is 32 and has played just five games in the last two seasons. But his best seasons came under McDermott and playing alongside Lotulelei. He could probably be had for a modest price coming off inactivity and would be a perfect mentor for Oliver.
Savings after release: $6.818 million
The grand total in savings from these five moves would result in about $30 million in cap space. That money could be used to try and bring in a big time free agent like defensive end J.J. Watt or even re-sign one of the Bills own like linebacker Matt Milano.
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