This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 2
Pelicans Note: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart are out tonight. In order to save time and prevent repeating myself, I’m going to just break the team down here.
Eric Bledsoe and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will need to carry the scoring load again tonight for New Orleans. Bledsoe played about 41 minutes in regulation last night and Alexander-Walker played about 34 minutes. Both players are top guard options at their salaries. Kira Lewis played about 28 minutes off the bench last night and he should see similar run tonight, if not more with Hart out as well. Lewis has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.4 percent usage rate in 119 minutes without Williamson or Ingram on the floor this season. He stands out as one of the top point-per-dollar values.
James Johnson started and played 28.3 minutes while Wesley Iwundu played 20 minutes off the bench. It is likely that he will get more playing time from both players tonight, particularly Iwundu, who should to start in place of Hart. Hart played about 42 minutes in regulation last night, so there are a lot of minutes available. Johnson is the better fantasy producer of the two, but either is a strong point-per-dollar value at minimum salary.
Steven Adams played about 32 minutes in regulation last night and his production should not change much with Williamson and Ingram out since he isn’t a high-usage option and neither of those players typically affect Adams’ rebounding numbers. He is still a viable value option, but he’s not a priority like the others.
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,700 DraftKings/$10,500) faces the Knicks tonight. New York has been a tough matchup all season long as they are one of the slowest teams in the league and they have been one of the more efficient defenses. Doncic always offers tournament winning upside since he contributes such a large percentage of the Mavericks’ offense, however. He has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.5 percent usage rate, 12.6 percent rebounding rate and 44.7 percent assist rate in 28 games played with Kristaps Porzingis active this season. Despite there being 10 games on tonight’s slate, only three players are priced above $10,000 on DraftKings. While the matchup for Doncic is not great, he is still one of the highest-projected players on the slate and there will most likely be enough value available tonight that it will be easy to get him into lineups.
Trae Young ($9,400 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) played a double overtime game last night, but he only played 35 minutes so there is not too much concern about his fatigue. His relative lack of playing time is also not that big of a deal because he dealt with some foul trouble that took playing time away from him. He should get 34 to 36 minutes tonight against the Pelicans. New Orleans is 16th in pace and 22nd in defensive rating over the last month. The Hawks will be playing without John Collins tonight, which should increase production for Young. He has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with a 31 percent usage rate and 42.2 percent assist rate in 1,181 minutes alongside Collins this season compared to 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 39.7 percent usage rate and 47.6 percent assist rate in 401 minutes without Collins on the floor.
Ja Morant ($7,600 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) has one of the most favorable matchups possible as he takes on the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota has allowed the fourth-most points per 100 possessions over the last month while playing at the fourth-fastest pace. Morant hasn’t lived up to some of the lofty expectations that people had coming into his second season, but he still offers plenty of upside in DFS- especially at this price point. He has averaged 33.8 minutes per game in 15 games over the last month and 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in 37 total games this season. He has a 28.2 percent usage rate and 35.6 percent assist rate in those games, which gives him a very high ceiling for his salary.
Dennis Schroder ($7,100 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) takes on the Sacramento Kings tonight. Sacramento has been one of the worst defenses in the league all season long and that hasn’t changed recently as they rank 26th in defensive rating over the last month. Schroder has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.5 percent usage rate and 37 percent assist rate in seven games without LeBron James or Anthony Davis this season. He has averaged 34 minutes per game in those games. There was some concern that the addition of Andre Drummond would take production away from Schroder, but Drummond lasted less than one game before being injured so this is the same situation as the last couple of weeks with Davis and James sidelined.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,000 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.5 percent usage rate and 20.2 percent assist rate in nine games with Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis active this season. While his rates are down since LeVert joined the team, his salary has decreased as well. Brogdon has averaged 33.7 minutes per game in those games and he projects as a viable mid-range option in an average matchup against the Hornets. Sabonis is also questionable for tonight’s game and, if he were to sit, Brogdon would become a priority among point guard options.
Jordan Poole ($6,100 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) is appropriately priced on DraftKings but FanDuel significantly lowered his salary as soon as Stephen Curry returned to the lineup. Curry is out tonight, so Poole will most likely start in his place. In five starts without Curry, Poole has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute and 34.6 minutes per game with a 23.8 percent usage rate and 17 percent assist rate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Ja Morant, Dennis Schroder, Eric Bledsoe, Kira Lewis
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Ja Morant, Eric Bledsoe, Jordan Poole, Kira Lewis
Latest NBA DFS Content
Shooting Guard
Fred VanVleet ($8,200 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) takes on the Golden State Warriors tonight and Kyle Lowry will be sidelined once again. VanVleet has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.9 percent usage rate and 29.4 percent assist rate in 37.4 minutes per game in eight games without Lowry and with Pascal Siakam this season. He has played a total of 317 minutes without Lowry or Norman Powell on the floor and has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3 percent usage rate and 29.3 percent assist rate.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) is overpriced for his average production, even with Curry sidelined, but his ceiling is much higher now that Curry is confirmed out. In seven games without Curry, Wiggins has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute and 33.5 minutes per game. He has a 28.2 percent usage rate and 16.1 percent assist rate in those games. He probably will not continue to produce 1.17 fantasy points per minute because he has shot 51.3 percent from 3 and has a 10 percent rebounding rate in those games, but the increased usage rate and per-minute production show the elevated ceiling that Wiggins offers.
Gary Trent Jr/ ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) played 36 minutes against Oklahoma City last game with Lowry out, and he should see similar playing time tonight against the Warriors. Trent has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.8 percent usage rate in his four games without Toronto and, while the usage rate may increase slightly without Lowry, Trent will probably not be a primary scoring option. Still, he is inexpensive enough that there is some value assuming he plays close to 36 minutes tonight.
Dillon Brooks ($5,500 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) is close to the opposite of Trent. Brooks will likely not play more than 28 to 30 minutes tonight against Minnesota, but he is capable of lighting up the scoreboard and offers a high ceiling for his price tag. Brooks has a 26.3 percent usage rate this season and has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute. He is a scoring dependent player with a low floor because, if his shot isn’t falling, he doesn’t contribute much else in the way of fantasy points. Being a scoring dependent player in a matchup with one of the worst defenses in the league isn’t necessarily a bad thing, however. Keep an eye on Brooks’ ownership because his willingness to shoot gives him a higher ceiling than many similarly priced options.
Svi Mykhailiuk ($5,200 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is more expensive than is preferred on DraftKings, but he is near minimum salary on FanDuel. He will likely see 30-plus minutes tonight and he has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.6 percent usage rate in seven games since joining the Thunder.
De’Anthony Melton ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) played 22 minutes against Utah in Memphis’s most recent game. Justise Winslow is out again tonight and Grayson Allen is questionable. If Allen sits, Melton should get another 22 minutes. He offers upside, however, because he could play more minutes if he is playing well. A matchup against Minnesota makes it likely that he plays well and he has typically produced when given an opportunity this season. Melton has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in 33 games this season. If he plays his way into 26 to 28 minutes against Minnesota tonight, he could be a GPP winner.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Svi Mykhailiuk
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.8 percent usage rate, 11.5 percent rebounding rate and 18.5 percent assist rate in six games without LaMelo Ball. While the per-minute production is down slightly, his rates are in line with his season averages except for an increase in rebounding rate. As he plays more games without Ball, his per-minute production will increase. Overall, he has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season. Tonight’s matchup against Indiana is a decent one, as the Pacers are seventh in pace and 16th in defensive rating over the last month.
Kyle Kuzma ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) stands out among small forward options tonight as he takes on the Sacramento Kings. Kuzma has averaged 35.1 minutes per game and 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in seven games without James and Davis this season. As was the case with Schroder, Drummond’s addition could have decreased Kuzma’s per-minute production, especially his 14.6 percent rebounding rate. Since Drummond is no longer a concern, Kuzma should continue to produce at the same level he has since James’ injury.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,700 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) has struggled with Atlanta this season, but he is in line for extended playing time with De’Andre Hunter and John Collins sidelined. Bogdanovic has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in 23 games played this season. He played about 35 minutes in regulation last night and should get 30-plus minutes again tonight against the Pelicans. Small forward is a relatively weak position tonight, so Bogdanovic offers some value based on his extended playing time.
Mikal Bridges ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) isn’t an exciting option but he is inexpensive enough that he could help to fill out some lineups tonight. Bridges has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season and 33 minutes per game over the last month. He will face a watered-down Oklahoma City team that is 20th in defensive rating over the last month.
Patrick Williams ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Jazz and hasn’t been a strong fantasy producer this season with 0.72 DraftKings points per minute. He has played at least 31 minutes in five of his last six games, however, and could be playing without one or both of Zach LaVine and Coby White tonight. Interest in Williams mostly comes on FanDuel where he is $100 more than the minimum salary.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Kuzma, Gordon Hayward, Wesley Iwundu
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Kuzma, Gordon Hayward, Patrick Williams
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) has really struggled lately with fewer than 50 DraftKings points in four straight games. Don’t let that discourage you from rostering him, however, as his matchup with the Blazers tonight is more appealing than his last four games against Boston (twice), the Clippers and the Lakers. Portland has been the least efficient defense in the league over the last month and they have allowed the eighth-most points in the paint over that time. For the season, Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.63 DraftKings points per minute with a 32 percent usage rate, 17.2 percent rebounding rate and 29.7 percent assist rate in 34 games played with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday active.
Julius Randle ($9,600 DraftKings/$8,900 FanDuel) is at one of his lowest prices in a while on FanDuel. Randle has averaged 38.2 minutes per game in 12 games played over the last month and he has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. R.J. Barrett and Derrick Rose are both questionable tonight. If either of them misses the game, Randle’s per-minute production is likely to increase as they are two of the most involved players in the offense after Randle.
Domantas Sabonis ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) is questionable tonight but he is reasonably priced if he is able to play. Sabonis has played nine games with LeVert and Brogdon active this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 22.9 percent usage rate, 18.8 percent rebounding rate and 25.1 percent assist rate in those games. While LeVert’s addition has taken some usage from Sabonis, his per-minute production hasn’t suffered because he is able to contribute in every category.
Pascal Siakam ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) has averaged 37.4 minutes per game and 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in eight games without Lowry and with VanVleet active this season. Siakam has a 22.1 percent usage rate, 12.1 percent rebounding rate and 25.8 percent assist rate in those games. He played 37.7 minutes against Oklahoma City in Toronto’s last game and should get similar playing time tonight against the Warriors.
Isaiah Roby ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) is finally priced up a bit on DraftKings but he remains inexpensive on FanDuel. Roby played 32.1 minutes against Toronto on Wednesday and should get around 32 minutes again tonight. The addition of Tony Bradley is a negative for Roby’s per-minute production since he is no longer the back-up center, but he has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute in 21 total starts this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pascal Siakam, James Johnson
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Julius Randle, Pascal Siakam, Isaiah Roby, James Johnson
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,100 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel) faces the Grizzlies in what should be an up-tempo game between the third- and fourth-fastest teams over the last month. Memphis has been top 10 in defensive efficiency over that time as well, but Towns is still a high-upside option tonight on a slate with plenty of value and not many players to pay up for. Towns has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute and 34 minutes per game this season. The biggest issue for Towns is that he is priced similarly to Doncic and Antetokounmpo, who produce more fantasy points per minute, and there is plenty of upside elsewhere at the center position.
Clint Capela ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) played about 34 minutes in regulation and about 44 minutes overall last night against the Spurs. There is some risk that his playing time is reduced tonight as a result, but he is still a strong play against the Pelicans despite that risk. The absence of John Collins is a positive for Capela’s playing time as Collins typically plays the bulk of the back-up center minutes. Capela has been extremely productive this season with 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. The expected increase in playing time makes him a strong mid-range option.
Rudy Gobert ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) has averaged 32 minutes per game over the last month, which is an increase from earlier in the season when he was typically playing 29 to 30 minutes per game. Like Capela, Gobert has been a very productive fantasy producer this season and his biggest issue has been playing time. He has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in 35 games played with Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell active this season. There is plenty of blowout risk here, but that is also factored into Gobert’s average playing time since the Jazz are frequently involved in blowouts.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) played about 32 minutes last game with Brandon Clarke out. Clarke isn’t on the injury report tonight, but Valanciunas is still likely to play about 30 minutes against Towns and the Timberwolves. Valanciunas is another mid-range option who produces at a high per-minute rate but has volatile playing time. He has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.2 percent usage rate and 24.3 percent rebounding rate this season.
Robert Williams ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) was a late scratch prior to Boston’s last game but he isn’t on the injury report tonight. While most of the Celtics will likely lose value as DFS options with the addition of Evan Fournier, Williams should mostly be unaffected since he isn’t a high-usage player. On one hand, that makes him a risky fantasy option but, on the other hand, the fact that most of his production comes from rebounding and defensive stats makes him less vulnerable to losing production because of other high-usage options on the floor. Williams has played 27, 26 and 32 minutes in his last three games and should get about another 28 minutes from him tonight against the Rockets. Williams has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute and 28.4 minutes per game in his three starts this season.
Montrezl Harrell ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) got a slight price decrease as a result of Drummond joining the team and Drummond is no longer active. Harrell has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute and 31 minutes per game in his seven games without LeBron and Davis this season. The matchup against the Kings isn’t one where Harrell is likely to have difficult from a size standpoint, so he should play around 30 minutes tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Clint Capela, Robert Williams, Montrezl Harrell
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Clint Capela, Robert Williams, Montrezl Harrell
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