CLEVELAND, Ohio — Terry Pluto called me on Wednesday.
I missed it because I was on a group Zoom with Daniel Jeremiah. But I dialed him back afterward and we had a sprawlingly efficient conversation. He said something that stuck. I’m paraphrasing but he made an interesting observation about the lowered urgency around this draft compared to others.
I’ll be honest, I cannot remember if he actually said that to me or if I read it in a recent “Talkin’ Browns” but either way, he’s right.
This draft likely won’t tip the Browns’ Super Bowl scale.
Which made me realize Cleveland should trade back. Move No. 26 for more picks. If they want to stay in the first round, cool. If they trade out of Day 1 altogether, I’d also understand that.
I’ll persuade y’all soon. But back to Terry.
This eureka moment arrived as the Cleveland legend was asking me about cornerbacks. I didn’t suggest the Browns trading back. Until now.
Thanks, Terry. For everything. You’ve been great to me (like everyone at Cleveland.com) and I truly appreciate it.
Let’s unpack why it would be advantageous for GM Andrew Berry to trade back on Day 1. But first, here are quotes from two successful NFL GMs who already agree.
Round 1, Pick 26: Trade the pick
A timeline of Ellis L. Williams’s draft predictions.
- Night of loss in Kansas City: “This team must find an edge rusher to help Myles Garrett. His name is Gregory Rousseau!”
- A month later after the Super Bowl: “Wow. Tampa Bay’s linebackers dominated. The Browns should draft Zaven Collins.”
- A week after free agency: “Takk McKinley won’t be enough. They should add a talented pass rusher like Azeez Ojulari.”
- Immediately following Jadevon Clowney signing: “The only question mark on this roster is No. 2 corner. Andrew Berry should target Greg Newsome.”
- Thursday night: “Trade back!”
There is a negative stigma about trading back that only exists in Cleveland. And though I’m not from around here, I understand why. But enough of the irrational fears. Go re-read what Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome said about his keys to draft success.
It’s trading back.
Of course, it’s unclear how the board falls. If a player the Browns think has Pro Bowl potential drops to them then take the guy. Cornerback Caleb Farley or receiver Rashod Bateman, for example. But if things go chalk (which they usually do) then I’d lessen expectations for a Round 1 corner.
Here’s why.
Since 2016, Twenty-one corners have been Round 1 picks. Six are Pro Bowlers (Jalen Ramsey, Jarie Alexander, Marshon Lattimore, Marlon Humphrey, Tre’Davious White and Denzel Ward).
All six earned a 70 or higher Pro Football Focus grade in Year 1. Of the 15 other corners, only one graded higher than 70 overall in their first season. That’s Adoree Jackson, to who the Titans didn’t offer a second contract.
That leaves 14 Day 1 corners that either didn’t play or did so poorly as rookies. Last year’s class highlights how challenging converting from college to pro football is for outside corners.
No. 3 pick Jeff Okudah (PFF: 42.8), No. 9 C.J. Henderson (PFF: 57.9), No. 16. A.J. Terrell (PFF: 60.8), No. 19. Damon Arnette (PFF: 41.7), No. 30 Noah Igbinoghene (PFF: 41.7) and No. 31 Jeff Gladney (PFF: 50.1).
Six first-round corners and they all struggled. Gladney plays for the Vikings and compounded his terrible season with a troubling off-field incident a few weeks ago. Speaking of Minnesota, head coach Mike Zimmer has selected four first-round corners since 2015.
Only one is still on the team (not including Gladney because I think he’ll get cut soon).
Basically, an average of five corners go on Day 1 and only one plays at a 70 grade or higher (minimum grade for a Pro Bowler).
Could a defensive back at No. 26 contribute right away? Maybe. Is it likely? Nope.
Round 2, Pick 59: Ronnie Perkins, EDGE, Oklahoma | 6-3, 25
Trading down (or out) of the first round also helps the Browns make more informed picks. Information is more difficult to gather on prospects this year. From game tape to medical information, it’s unprecedentedly dry.
Why fly blind when you don’t have to? The Browns can trade back and throw darts next year when they have more data available.
But they’ll have to make a few picks. In Round 2, it’s important Berry goes defense. I like edge rusher Ronnie Perkins. He looks bigger than 250 pounds on tape. Only Perkins graded 90 or better versus the run or pass according to PFF.
His bend impresses too. Leverage wins on the edge and Perkins naturally sinks around tackles and explodes through his finishes.
Round 3, Pick 89: Kellen Mond, QB, Texas A&M | 6-2, 205
Texas A&M quarterback Kellen Mond rolls out during an SEC game against Auburn on Dec. 5, 2020, at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn.AP Photo/Butch Dill
Here comes another honest moment. I do not know much about Kellen Mond. I’ll write something on this quarterback class soon because I think it would be very wise for the Browns to select Baker Mayfield’s backup with a top 100 pick.
We’ll revisit this next week after I watch tape. It’ll be fun.
Round 3, Pick 91: Carlos Basham Jr, Edge, Wake Forest | 6-foot-3, 280 pounds
FILE – In this Sept. 9, 2018, file photo, Wake Forest defensive linemen Carlos Basham Jr. (18) and Sulaiman Kamara celebrate after sacking Towson quarterback Tom Flacco in the first half of an NCAA college football game, in Winston-Salem, N.C.AP
Basham Jr. could be selected anywhere between rounds 2 and 4. If he goes top 50, it’ll be because he reminds a GM of Malik Jackson. He’ll be productive inside or out. Lining up against tackles, his combination of size (second heaviest edge in class) and first step makes him formidable on any down.
Falling out of the top 50 means few teams think he can excel in any one area. Role players aren’t Round 2 selections. Watching Basham, I see a lot of above-average. He rushes with a combination of moves. I trust him in a hand fight. He’s technical, mixing in chops with spins.
But I also don’t see enough explosiveness. Can he blow a play up if it doesn’t go perfectly for him? I have my doubts. The draft is all about value. As a late Round 3 selection, Basham works.
Round 4, Pick 110: Ar’Darius Washington, S, TCU | 5-8, 180
Think Antoine Winfield Jr., but a lot less stout. He’ll be under drafted because of his size but he plays so physically that I’m not worried. Perhaps he can put on weight.
Cleveland should add at least two defensive backs. Pairing Washington with Asante Samuel Jr via a Day 1 trade back sounds nice.
Round 4, Pick 132: Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma St. | 5-11, 193
Oklahoma State wide receiver Tylan Wallace (#2) hauls in a touchdown pass over two Oregon State Beavers defenders in an NCAA football game at Reser Stadium in Corvallis, Oregon on Friday, Aug. 30, 2019. Sean Meagher/Staff
He’s a talented outside threat. His hands are strong. He consistently wins at the catch point and knows how to secure high balls.
Like all these guys, the college production was impressive. Wallace averaged 100 yards per game his senior season in the Big 12.
Wallace controls his body in the air well. Think Donovan Peoples-Jones versus Cincinnati. It’s impressive. However, I’m unsure how game-changing his play is. Can he win consistently outside, one-on-one versus an NFL press corner? I have my doubts.
Round 5, Pick 169: Trade for a 2022 pick or later
Round 6, Pick 211: Trade for a 2022 pick or later
Round 7, Pick 257: Trade for a 2022 pick or later
What we learned
It’s extremely unlikely the Browns make four trades next weekend but I just explained why it makes sense to do so. Berry should 1) Avoid the unknown. 2) Build for the future. 3) Compete for the 2021 Super Bowl with veterans.
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