The Washington Capitals wrapped up the regular season finishing with 77 total points and a second-place finish in the East Division. That finish didn’t help them avoid a first-round date with what has been the NHL’s best team for the past month, the Boston Bruins.
That unfortunate result has led the boys from DC to not exactly be favored by statistical models in terms of moving on from the series victorious.
Let’s start from an overall picture first and to do that we’ll go with the sports betting market. Bovada currently has the Caps as the tenth most likely team to win the Stanley Cup. As you can see the same service has the Bruins as the sixth most likely to finish the playoffs on top.
Current Cup odds via Bovada: pic.twitter.com/GqH8H29aFO
— Chris Cerullo (@CJC_95) May 13, 2021
Now moving on to analysis done with pure “hockey stats” in mind. We’ll start with Dom Luszczyszyn from The Athletic, whose model is the most negative about the Caps chances in the first round, giving them just a 35.8-percent chance of breaking through the Bruins.
Capitals vs. Bruins series preview
The Bruins have unlocked their potential since the trade deadline and are heavy favourites against the Capitals as a result.https://t.co/9majwqROGR pic.twitter.com/yyiAsNM8Ek
— dom at the athletic (@domluszczyszyn) May 13, 2021
Last season, Dom had the Caps at a 55-percent chance of advancing against the New York Islanders.
We’ll now go to Moneypuck , the only model that likes the Caps chances to go deep into the summer. They see the Caps as the weakest first-round favorite (56-percent), but also the fifth likeliest team to take home the whole thing.
Capitals slight favorites over Bruins https://t.co/Xm8baqGqGI pic.twitter.com/9zasWZFMRP
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) May 12, 2021
Lastly, to Micah Blake McCurdy of hockeyviz.com who correctly predicted the Caps to win the Cup in 2018. Micah also has the Caps as big underdogs against Boston with only a 40-percent chance of advancing.
Cup chances, May 12. pic.twitter.com/4wC86e75Ay
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) May 12, 2021
This is what the math has to say about the Caps trek into the 2021 playoffs, but make sure and stay tuned for what Peter, Ian, and Keith, a Coin have to say in the coming days.
Note: These odds and percentages may change before the series truly starts
