The Penguins’ protected list for Wednesday’s expansion draft seems fairly straightforward. They will protect seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie.
They should be:
Forwards – Teddy Blueger, Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, Kasperi Kapanen, Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Brandon Tanev.
Defensemen – Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang, Mike Matheson.
Goalie – Tristan Jarry.
First- and second year professionals are exempt from the draft. So, the Penguins do not have to protect P-O Joseph and John Marino.
The points of debate are:
• Blueger vs. Jared McCann.
• Matheson vs. Marcus Pettersson.
But the Penguins just signed Blueger to a two-year contract. They didn’t do that to give him to Seattle. McCann is 25 and is already on his third team. He shows flashes and is more productive than Blueger, who is a solid bottom-four center. Those are deceptively valuable. Kills penalties, too.
Matheson is better than Pettersson. The Penguins may trade the latter if Seattle doesn’t take him. Matheson carries an onerous price tag: He’s signed through 2026 at an annual cap hit of $4.875 million. He gets a whopping $6.5 million, $6.5 million and $7 million in that contract’s last three years.
But that deal would likely keep Seattle from taking Matheson if he’s available.
Your protected list isn’t just about protecting your perceived best players. It’s not a merit badge. It’s about maneuvering Seattle into taking who you don’t mind losing.
Nobody was able to con Vegas like that in 2017. That’s how the Golden Knights made the Stanley Cup Final as an expansion team.
Bad news for Seattle: There’s no goalie like Marc-Andre Fleury to be had this year.
There are two other popular points of discussion regarding the Penguins’ protected list:
• Given Evgeni Malkin’s lengthy recovery from knee surgery, should the Penguins protect Jeff Carter by way of not exposing the center position to potential disaster?
• Expose Brandon Tanev by way of ditching his contract, which carries a $3.5 million cap hit through 2025.
To even consider the latter smacks of insanity, so I doubt that GM Ron Hextall is.
Tanev’s cap hit isn’t that bad. He’s an oasis of grit in the Penguins’ vast desert of Charmin. His speed enables him to fit perfectly throughout the lineup. He’s an invaluable penalty-killer.
Tanev is a winning hockey player. If he’s exposed, Seattle definitely takes him.
The trepidation about exposing Carter is understandable. If Carter goes, McCann is the Penguins’ second-line center and Blueger is third-line. The depth chart at center trickles up in a way that hurts the Penguins.
But it’s hard to imagine Seattle taking a 36-year-old who carries a $5.27 million cap hit, has one year left on his contract, will likely retire after that, and might well quit immediately if he’s claimed in the expansion draft. (Carter should make that known.)
Carter got red-hot for the Penguins: 13 goals in 20 games (including playoffs) after joining the team. But there’s no guarantee he’ll keep producing anywhere close to that, let alone skating on an expansion team. Carter hasn’t topped 17 goals in a season since 2016-17.
McCann is a better pick for an expansion team than Carter. So, the Penguins should expose Carter.
Creating debate is my business. But the Penguins’ protected list seems obvious.
The player the Penguins want to lose is winger Jason Zucker. He’s got a cap hit of $5.5 million and is signed through 2023. His swiftness and skill should make him a good fit with the Penguins, but it hasn’t. It would be good to get him off the books, but Seattle won’t bite.
One potential gambit: If management isn’t sold on Jarry, expose him and hope Seattle takes him. Patronize free agency for a goaltender like Antti Raanta, most recently of Arizona.
Potential problems: If Seattle doesn’t claim Jarry, his confidence gets further shaken. If Seattle does claim Jarry, the Penguins would have to get two goalies. Raanta (or whoever) and Casey DeSmith isn’t enough depth.
DeSmith is between a rock and a hard place: He’s an adequate backup if your starter is both legit and durable. Jarry isn’t. Raanta (or whoever) wouldn’t be.
The best move would be to sign Raanta (or whoever) and have him compete with Jarry for the No. 1 job.
