Intro by Doug Kezirian
After the sportsbooks cleaned up on the NFL’s opening weekend with underdogs covering 12 of 16 games, including nine of them winning outright, the second weekend might come down to just one game. The Kansas City Chiefs are 3.5-point road favorites in Baltimore on “Sunday Night Football” and could present huge liability for the house.
“Whatever happens during the day, that game will make or break the books because [parlays] could be tied into it,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “The public is going to bet the Chiefs, and the sharps will probably wait to see how high this line will go.”
Despite constant support of Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City, the Chiefs have actually let backers down. They’re only 2-10 against the spread in their past 12 games dating to last year, including the playoffs. However, the star quarterback shined in last week’s comeback win against Cleveland, while Baltimore showed plenty of vulnerability in its Monday Night Football loss to the Raiders in Las Vegas.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is 6-1 ATS as an underdog but is winless in three career starts against Kansas City.
Every Friday during the season, betting analysts Doug Kezirian (2-0-2), Tyler Fulghum (0-2), Joe Fortenbaugh (5-1-1) and Anita Marks (26-17), Stats & Information’s Seth Walder (4-4) and Mackenzie Kraemer, sports betting Deputy Editor David Bearman (3-2) and Football Outsiders Aaron Schatz (5-2) will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for Week 2 of the NFL season.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Thursday (unless otherwise indicated).
1 p.m. ET games
New England Patriots (-5.5, 43) at New York Jets
Bearman: QB Mac Jones is getting a lot of attention after his debut last week. While I will admit that he outplayed Tua Tagovailoa, unless offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels trusts Jones more and opens the offense up, the Patriots are not going to be scoring a lot of points. I watched every play of that game vs. Miami and it was a lot of dump-offs, short passes to tight ends and screens. Honestly, it looked a lot like Miami under Tua last year, with a rookie QB with limited weapons and OCs who didn’t trust him yet.
The Jets’ offense is a whole different mess. Under rookie QB Zach Wilson and a backfield by committee, Gang Green had 82 totaled yards halfway through the third quarter last week. None of their first nine drives (10 of their first 11 possessions) went for over 40 yards. They finished strong with two TD drives (including a 98-yarder at the end of the game), but the game was mostly out of reach by then. Twenty-seven of the past 40 Patriots road games (32 of those with Tom Brady) went under the total. That’s a large five-year sample size hitting at 67.5% under coach Bill Belichick, no matter who the QB is.
