2021 NFL odds, lines, picks: Expert predictions for the Week 2 schedule including Chiefs vs. Ravens and… – The Athletic

The NFL needed no introduction to 2021 and created its own grand entrance with last-second heroics, huge comebacks and, of course, some bad beats to top off the first week of a new season. Now we’re back to do it all over again in Week 2 with more odds, expert picks and plenty of analysis from The Athletic’s reporters around the league.

But first, a quick betting breakdown from Week 1 results:

• Underdogs ruled, going 12-4 against the spread and 9-7 outright.

• New Orleans (+5) had the largest margin of victory out of any underdog, beating Green Bay 38-3. The Steelers (+6.5) were the biggest underdogs to win, topping the Bills 23-16.

• The over went 10-6, faring exceptionally well in the 1 p.m. ET window with a 6-3 record. Cleveland-Kansas City produced the largest total with 62 points, while Greg Joseph’s game-tying kick forced overtime between the Vikings and Bengals as time expired, which enabled the over to hit on a total of 47. Justin Tucker’s last-minute field goal also pushed Baltimore-Las Vegas over on its point total of 50.5.

• The bad beat of the week happened in the San Francisco 49ers-Detroit Lions game. San Francisco was -9 on the road and led by 24 points before Detroit scored twice in the final 5:44 to lose by eight.

Expert picks are straight up, not against the spread.

All times Eastern. Odds updated at 6:45 p.m. Eastern Friday. Click here for live odds. 

New York Giants at Washington Football Team — 8:20 p.m. Thursday on NFL Network

Three out of four teams in the NFC East dropped to 0-1, including the defending division champions. The Giants won both regular-season meetings against the Washington Football Team in 2020, though Washington opened as 3.5-point favorites for the first meeting of the new season.

The Football Team lost outright as week 1 favorites after leading the Chargers in the second half. After Ryan Fitzpatrick went down, Taylor Heinicke led Washington to open the third quarter on a scoring drive. Still, the Football Team followed it with a missed field goal and a fumble inside their own 5-yard line on the next two possessions, the latter set up a game-winning touchdown. WFT also gave up 337 passing yards in its opener after finishing as the No. 2 pass defense last year.

The Giants didn’t fare well against the Broncos, losing 27-13. New York had a top-10 run defense in 2020, though it conceded 165 yards to Denver on the ground at 5.9 yards per carry. Daniel Jones started 10-of-14 passing before completing 12 of his final 23 attempts and losing a fumble in the red zone. Saquon Barkley was limited to 10 carries in his return from an ACL tear as New York finished with 314 total yards. The Giants hit the under for a ninth consecutive game dating back to the middle of 2020.

Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears — 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX

It’s not often you see a team favored after getting beat by 20 less than 24 hours earlier. But here the Bears are, opening -3 against the Bengals after Chicago got rolled by the Rams on Sunday Night Football. The Bears’ secondary was picked apart by Matthew Stafford in his Rams debut, giving up touchdown passes of 56 and 67 yards.

The bigger concern was the offense. Andy Dalton turned the ball over twice in the first quarter and couldn’t finish drives. The Bears had seven points at the half after crossing midfield on all five of their possessions. David Montgomery was a bright spot with 100 yards on the ground while Justin Fields scored on a three-yard run as a situational quarterback.

Cincinnati comes into this matchup as the underdog despite winning in Week 1. Joe Burrow returned from a knee injury that cut his rookie year short to throw for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Rookie Ja’Marr Chase got over his preseason drop issues to haul in one of those scores on a 50-yard deep ball, and Joe Mixon topped 100 rushing yards in-game for the first time since last October. All positive signs, though overtime could’ve been avoided had Cincinnati held onto its 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. The Bengals did defend the run well against Dalvin Cook — 20 carries for 61 yards — which could signal trouble for Chicago if David Montgomery is held in check.

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns – 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS

The Texans are a surprising 1-0 team after thumping the Jaguars 37-21. Houston went into that game as 3.5-point underdogs before racking up 449 yards of total offense, converting 12 of 19 third downs and hanging 37 points on Jacksonville. The Texans’ defense gave up 395 yards, though it also intercepted Trevor Lawrence three times. Week 1 might have been the product of two weak franchises matching up, but David Culley’s team plays hard and might be able to sneak up on some teams this year.

That said, expectations remain low against the Browns, who come into the week as 11.5-point favorites, the second-largest opening spread for Week 2. Cleveland looked good enough to beat almost any team in week 1. Well, almost any team. Not the Chiefs, who beat the Browns.

So Cleveland starts 0-1 for the 17th (!) year in a row. But don’t let that get in the way of how it performed. The Browns’ 457 yards of an offense ranked first among all teams. They continued to assert themselves on the ground, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, while Baker Mayfield had his third 300-yard game since the start of last season. If you’re tempted to play the spread here, teams favored by more than five points last week went 1-3 against the spread.

Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts — 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX

The Rams already had the NFL’s top-scoring defense in 2020. Now, they might have an offense to match that. Matthew Stafford went 20-of-26 for 321 yards and three touchdowns in his Los Angeles debut. That Rams only had more passing yards than that three times last season. The defense added three sacks and two takeaways as the Rams rolled the Bears, 34-14. Oddsmakers have the Rams opening as four-point favorites against the Colts in Week 2.

Indianapolis dropped to 0-1 with a 28-16 loss to the Seahawks. A year ago, the Colts had the No. 2 run defense in football but struggled to contain Seattle as it averaged 5.2 yards per carry. Indianapolis wasn’t much better in pass defense, giving up four passing touchdowns to Russell Wilson. The bigger issue was the Colts’ inability to establish the run. Jonathan Taylor had 17 carries for 56 yards. The Rams gave up more than 100 yards to David Montgomery, so Taylor and the ground game may get going in Week 2.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins – 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX

The Bills are usually a good bet to win when they give up 252 yards of offense, which is exactly what they did against the Steelers in week 1. Except Buffalo had its own issues moving the ball and lost 23-16.

The Bills scored three total points off two drives that started inside of Pittsburgh’s 35-yard line and were particularly aggressive on fourth down, though they were unsuccessful on both, and the Steelers capitalized on shorter fields. Josh Allen had 314 total yards with a touchdown pass and a lost fumble. Oddsmakers aren’t sweating the loss as Buffalo opened as 3.5-point favorites at home for a divisional matchup with the Dolphins.

Miami was the only AFC East team to win last week, beating the Patriots 17-16. Tua Tagovailoa connected with top-10 pick Jaylen Waddle for what proved to be the winning touchdown just over four minutes into the second half. Tagovailoa ended with 202 passing yards and threw a costly interception at midfield in the fourth quarter, but Xavien Howard forced a fumble at the Dolphins’ nine-yard line to preserve the lead. The Dolphins gave up 393 yards but didn’t break, forcing New England to kick three field goals before Howard took away New England’s best chance to go ahead.

Both teams hit the under in Week 1, though it is worth noting Buffalo scored 87 total points in two meetings with Miami in 2020.

New England Patriots at New York Jets — 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS

It’ll be a battle between rookie quarterbacks in East Rutherford when the Jets hosts the Patriots in Week 2. Both teams are looking to shake off 0-1 starts, with New England opening as five-point favorites on the road.

Mac Jones threw for 281 yards and a touchdown in a 17-16 loss to Miami. He was leading a potential winning drive when Damien Harris fumbled on the Dolphins’ nine-yard line with 3:18 to go.

Zach Wilson debuted for New York with 258 passing yards, two touchdowns and an interception in a 19-14 loss to Carolina. The Jets ran four offensive plays in the Panthers’ territory during the first half before Wilson settled in to lead a pair of scoring drives in the second half. The Patriots defended the run well in week 1, holding Miami to 74 yards on 23 carries. That could be problematic for Wilson considering the Jets had 45 rushing yards on Sunday.

Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers — 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS

The Steelers were the biggest underdogs (+6.5) to win in week 1, topping the Bills 23-16. They beat Buffalo despite having just 252 yards of offense. The defense came through, getting two fourth-down stops in favorable field position before returning a blocked punt for a touchdown. Pittsburgh should get its offense going in Week 2 after the Raiders gave up 406 yards on Monday Night Football. The Steelers are favored after opening at -6.5.

Las Vegas ended week 1 with a 33-27 overtime win against the Ravens. The Raiders trailed by 14 points early before coming back to tie the game at 17, 24 and 27 in the fourth quarter. Vegas nearly won early in OT before Bryan Edwards’ game-winning touchdown was ruled short of the goal line, and Derek Carr threw an interception three plays later. Carr redeemed himself with a winning strike to Zay Jones. Jon Gruden favored a pass-heavy gameplan as Carr threw the ball 56 times for 409 yards and two touchdowns. Darren Waller saw 19 targets, catching 10 passes for 105 yards.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles — 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX

No team scored more points last week than the 49ers in a 41-33 win against Detroit. Jimmy Garoppolo threw for 314 yards and a touchdown while the run game added 131 yards and two scores. But that game was also a pretty bad beat as San Francisco (-9 in week 1) led by 24 points with 5:44 to go before the Lions struck twice to lose by eight. You could have jumped on the halftime point total for this game and still hit the over without any worry. The 49ers are favored once again in Week 2, though they only opened -3.5 against the Eagles.

Philadelphia picked up the NFC East’s lone victory as Nick Sirianni handily won in his head coaching debut, 32-6 against the Falcons. The Eagles racked up a league-best 173 rushing yards in week 1 between Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts and Kenneth Gainwell, while Hurts added 264 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Philadelphia’s defense was also impressive in bottling up a Falcons passing game that ranked fifth in yards last year. The Eagles were underdogs a week ago and had one of the largest margins of victory. Let’s see if they can prove oddsmakers wrong again.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers – 1 p.m. Sunday on FOX

Let the Jameis Winston era begin. Life after Drew Brees got off to a great start with Winston slinging five touchdown passes on just 20 total attempts in a 38-3 blowout of Green Bay. Did we mention the Saints were five-point underdogs in that game? The Saints’ run game also looked strong, with 171 rushing yards at 4.4 yards per carry. Defensively, New Orleans completely shut down the reigning MVP and No. 1 scoring offense from a year ago, holding the Packers to 229 yards with three turnovers. The Saints opened as 3.5-point favorites against the Panthers.

Carolina looked comfortable on both sides of the ball in its 19-14 win against the Jets. Sam Darnold threw for 279 yards and one touchdown while running for another. But the use of Christian McCaffrey as a receiver hadn’t been done much with Matt Rhule and Joe Brady running the show. McCaffrey had 21 carries for 98 yards and caught all nine of his targets for another 89 yards, the most receptions he’s had in a game since 2019. The Panthers sacked Zach Wilson six times, intercepted him once and held the Jets to 45 rushing yards.

Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars — 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS

The Broncos may, in fact, have their quarterback. Denver averaged 335 yards per game last year before generating 420 in Teddy Bridgewater’s debut, a 27-13 win against the Giants. Bridgewater had 264 passing yards with a pair of touchdowns and looked particularly impressive when facing pressure. The Broncos have a defense capable of being a top-15 unit when healthy. If the offense can match that, the Broncos have a chance to be competitive this year. Denver looks to move to 2-0 when it hosts the Jaguars in Week 2. The Broncos opened as six-point favorites after covering in Week 1.

Jacksonville showed it has a long way to go under Urban Meyer. The addition of Trevor Lawrence was cause for optimism, but a 16-point loss to the Texans was an even more harsh reality check. The Jaguars fell behind early and abandoned the run game, forcing the No. 1 pick in April’s draft to attempt 51 passes in his NFL debut. The Jags defense looked awfully similar to the group that finished bottom-two in points allowed, surrendering 37 points and 449 yards to the Texans. Jacksonville may not be favored in another game this season.

Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals — 4:05 p.m. Sunday on FOX

There was good reason to wonder which version of the Cardinals would show up in week 1. Well, it was the group that proved it belonged among the league’s top offenses during the first half of 2020. Arizona cruised 38-13 over Tennessee as Kyler Murray threw for 289 yards and scored five total touchdowns (one rushing).

But it was the Cardinals’ defense that really stood out. Arizona forced three turnovers and held Derrick Henry to 58 rushing yards. Oh, and then there was Chandler Jones, whose five sacks make him a way-too-early candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. He was +6600 for the award before the season. Arizona will now try to get to 2-0 against Minnesota. Oddsmakers had the Cardinals open as 4.5-point favorites.

The Vikings were Week 1 favorites against Cincinnati, though the Bengals won 27-24 in overtime. Minnesota showed resilience in making up a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter but has some things it’ll need to figure out quickly. The defense gave up nearly 400 yards to Cincinnati and clearly missed Anthony Barr, who continues rehab from a knee injury.

The bigger issue was the lack of a ground game. Dalvin Cook was the focal point of the Vikings’ offense in 2020 and had just 61 yards on 20 carries with a fumble lost. The Bengals were a bottom-five run defense last year. It doesn’t get much easier now after Arizona just shut down Derrick Henry.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 4:05 p.m. Sunday on FOX

It’s safe to say that oddsmakers liked how the Buccaneers looked in week 1 as Tampa Bay opened as 13-point favorites against the Atlanta Falcons, the largest opening spread of the week. The Bucs failed to cover in their opener but kicked off their title defense with a 31-29 win against the Dallas Cowboys. Tom Brady led a winning drive (something new) to set up a go-ahead field goal. Brady finished with 379 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions. Tampa’s secondary looked vulnerable at times, but not every team it plays will throw the ball 58 times. However, Dallas’s high volume of passes was because the Bucs took away the Cowboys’ run game, limiting Ezekiel Elliott to 33 rushing yards.

Plain and simple, six points is not going to cut it against the defending champions. The Falcons got rolled 32-6 by the Eagles at home. Atlanta kicked field goals on each of their first two drives before running one more play (not a misprint) on Philadelphia’s side of the field. One positive to take from the loss was the Falcons’ presence of a run game. Atlanta ranked 27th in rushing yards last year and had 124 yards on 26 carries. The bad news? Tampa Bay is among the league’s top-run defenses.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers — 4:25 p.m. Sunday on CBS

The Chargers had one of the stranger line movements in week 1, starting as favorites and closing as the underdog. That ultimately didn’t matter as Los Angeles beat the Washington Football Team 20-16 on the road. Justin Herbert threw a go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter and overcame a two-turnover afternoon by running the final 6:43 off the clock to preserve the win, including four third-down conversions to extend the drive. The Chargers opened as three-point favorites at home against the Cowboys in Week 2.

Dallas was on its way to 1-0 before Tom Brady orchestrated a winning drive late to sink the Cowboys 31-29. It would be easy to panic over Ezekiel Elliott’s 33 rushing yards or the 431 yards conceded to the Bucs. But Dak Prescott looked great in returning from a dislocated ankle that ended his 2020 season after five games. Prescott threw the ball 58 times, completing 42 passes for 391 yards and three touchdowns with one interception. The defense’s four takeaways is also a positive sign moving forward.

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks — 4:25 p.m. Sunday on CBS

All four NFC West teams won in Week 1, including the Seahawks beating the Colts 28-16. The Seahawks proved they were better in 2020 when Russell Wilson threw the ball less. Wilson only attempted 23 passes, but he completed 18 of those for 254 yards and four touchdowns. That’s the kind of efficiency any team wants from its quarterback, and it looks even better against a Colts defense that allowed the 10th-fewest points last year.

Seattle’s run defense also appeared to be in midseason form as it held Jonathan Taylor to 56 rushing yards, a great sign before going up against Derrick Henry. The Seahawks opened as 5.5-point home favorites against the Titans in Week 2.

Tennessee has a lot to figure out after getting mowed down 38-13 by the Cardinals. The Titans went in as the betting favorite but had no answer for Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense, which racked up 416 yards. Murray scored five touchdowns in the win. Tennessee’s offense wasn’t much better, with Ryan Tannehill turning the ball over three times while Derrick Henry was held to 58 rushing yards. It’s worth noting that the Titans are 6-0 coming off a loss of 10 or more points since the start of 2019.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens – 8:20 p.m. Sunday on NBC

Make it back-to-back prime-time appearances for the Ravens, who have a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 1. This time they open as the betting underdogs, with the Chiefs opened as 2.5-point favorites in Baltimore. That spread has already grown to four points.

Kansas City came out flat against the Browns, trailing by 12 at the half before mounting a second-half comeback to win 33-29. Patrick Mahomes carried the offense with 337 passing yards and four total touchdowns (one rushing), though Cleveland also had no answer for Tyreek Hill, who caught 11 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown. KC has to feel good about its chances to throw against the Ravens after seeing Baltimore give up 409 passing yards to the Raiders.

Baltimore never trailed before losing against Las Vegas on Monday night, but a Lamar Jackson fumble in overtime proved costly. The Ravens jumped out to a 14-point lead, but the Raiders tied the score in the fourth quarter three separate times to force the extra period. Baltimore picked up where it left off in 2020 as one of the league’s top rushing teams. Despite losing several running backs to season-ending injuries in the preseason, the Ravens had a league-best 189 yards on the ground in Week 1. Lamar Jackson led all rushers with 86 yards and added 217 yards and a touchdown through the air.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers — 8:15 p.m. Monday on ESPN

Week 1 was forgettable for the NFC North as all four of its teams lost. The Lions fell behind 38-10 against the 49ers before scoring three touchdowns over the final 19 minutes to cover at +9. The Packers were favored against the Saints but lost 38-3 — the worst loss of any betting favorite last week. Oddsmakers expect one of these two to get on the right track as Green Bay opened as 10.5-point favorites against Detroit.

Sunday was Aaron Rodgers’ second multi-interception game in the past four seasons. He typically plays mistake-free football and has a chance to rebound against one of the weaker defenses in the NFL. Detroit gave up 30-plus points for the 11th time in its last 17 games and last beat the Packers in 2018.

(Photo of Kyler Murray: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)