Please never let me overrate the importance of the preseason for rookie quarterbacks again.
While this year’s quintet of first-round picks swam with ease in smooth August waters, the group has flailed its way through September. Trey Lance enjoyed the best Week 3 by playing just three snaps. This shouldn’t be that much of a surprise, but the regular-season level of difficulty for Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Mac Jones has been a cold splash of water to the face.
Nine years ago, I started this column as a yearlong examination of the five hyped rookie starters of 2012: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden and Russell Wilson. Nick Foles also eventually joined the party. It’s striking to look back and see those rookies in better situations, finding success earlier.
Nowadays, rookie quarterbacks are supposedly more prepared for the NFL than ever before. League trends and rules all make passing easier. That sounds great until you examine the 11 rookie starts thus far (including one by third-rounder Davis Mills) and realize the best overall game was probably Jones’ Week 1 outing … in which the Patriots scored one touchdown.
In the big picture, there is no need to panic. I’m writing this ahead of Week 4 to establish how low the baseline is thus far. There will be better days ahead for Lawrence, Wilson, Fields, Jones and eventually Lance. But in this moment, these fresh-faced signal-callers have a long way to travel before matching the rookie exploits of that 2012 class, much less what Justin Herbert accomplished last year.
While it’s early, the 11 rookie starts (combined 1-10 record, with the lone win spawning from a rookie-vs.-rookie matchup) are a far better indicator of how the rest of the season plays out than a handful of preseason series. It’s almost as if NFL quarterbacking is hard.
NOTE: Up/down arrows illustrate movement from the Week 3 QB Index. Rankings reflect each quarterback’s standing heading into Week 4.
