Week 4 of the 2021 NFL regular season is here, and boy do we have a tough slate of games this Sunday. Sure, there’s a few good options for your survivor pool pick, but when it comes to against-the-spread picks, there’s some trap games out there. Some already fell victim to the Jaguars at plus-7.5. Thankfully, you’re in the perfect spot if you want advice on what to bet on this weekend.
Each week, we’ll collect all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more.
Let’s dive in.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Panthers at Cowboys
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Cowboys -4.5, O/U 50
Current: Cowboys -4, O/U 51.5
“The Sam Darnold bounceback season has been incredible but the Cowboys are just a bad matchup for an injured Panthers team. When Christian McCaffrey went out with a hamstring injury against the Texans last Thursday, Carolina’s offense stagnated. He’s the perfect outlet for Darnold and also much better in pass protection than the rest of Carolina’s running backs. The Panthers are down Jaycee Horn. A CJ Henderson trade won’t fix that in the first week. Carolina’s defense is good but if you want to beat it, you need a good offensive line and a plethora of pass catchers. Hello, Dallas.”
Will Brinson is taking the Cowboys and the points this Sunday. Check out his Week 4 column, here.
Browns at Vikings
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: PICK, O/U 51
Current: Browns -2, O/U 51.5
R.J. White has been SportsLine’s No. 1 NFL expert over the last four years, going 354-292-22 against the spread in particular during that stretch. He has also delivered a 57.1 percent hit rate on his SuperContest picks over the last six seasons — and that run includes two finishes in the money, including finishing 18th out of 2,748 entries back in 2017.
We can tell you he loves the Vikings +2 this weekend, but you need to check out his other best bets over at SportsLine.
Lions at Bears
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Bears -4, O/U 44
Current: Bears -3, O/U 41.5
“Despite their 0-3 record on the year, the Lions have been competitive under first-year head coach Dan Campbell. In fact, they are 2-1 ATS and would have earned their first win of the season had it not been for Ravens kicker Justin Tucker setting a new NFL record with a 66-yard field goal to win the game as time expired. So while many may not be too surprised about the Lions’ record, they haven’t rolled over. They now get a Bears team that looks lost offensively, even with first-round rookie Justin Fields under center. (Against Cleveland last week, he was sacked nine times.) While Detroit doesn’t have nearly the defense that the Browns do, I like getting the field goal bump with a team that — in my mind — has been the better club throughout the first three weeks, even if the records don’t reflect it. This could also be a back-breaking moment for Matt Nagy’s job if the Bears were upset at home, which is worth monitoring.”
Our guy Tyler Sullivan is taking the Lions to upset the Bears this week. He’s on an incredible 11-2-2 run with his locks of the week. You need to check them out, here.
Texans at Bills
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bills -17.5, O/U 47.5
Current: Bills -17, O/U 47
Before you make your Week 4 NFL survivor picks, you need to see which team the SportsLine Projection Model is backing. The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span.
We can tell you the model is very high on the Bills this week, but they are not the only team the model loves. For more survivor pool picks this week, head on over to SportsLine.
Colts at Dolphins
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Dolphins -2, -4.5, O/U 44.5
Current: Dolphins -2.5, O/U 42.5
“I think the Colts look lifeless. I mean, they are playing back-to-back road games, their defense hasn’t been as good as expected, they don’t scare anybody down the field. They have no threats. I think Miami’s corners are pretty good, I think they’re gonna be able to lock them up and bring down the eighth man and play against the run and slow down (Jonathan) Taylor. Look, I don’t think this is going to be a pretty game to watch, but I’ll take Miami -2. I think they’re good enough, I think they’ll find a way to win the game and cover the number. One of my best bets on Miami.”
That’s Pete Prisco’s take from the Pick Six Podcast, where he, Will Brinson and R.J. White broke down all the games from a gambling perspective and gave out best bets on Friday — as they do every week. Give it a listen below and subscribe for great NFL content in your feed daily.
Chiefs at Eagles
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Chiefs-6, O/U 55
Current: Chiefs -6.5, O/U 54.5
“Yes this is a different spot for this Chiefs than they’re used to. At least the Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes Chiefs. However I believe it will bring out the best in them and there will be a sense of urgency to win this game. There’s a huge discrepancy in the degree of acumen experience between these coaching staffs and there is a massive gap at quarterback as well.
“Yes I have serious reservations about the Chiefs defense but I do not believe the Eagles will be that equipped to exploit it. The Eagles will have to run the heck out of the football to have any chance of really moving the ball and that’s not going to be enough to keep Pace with Mahomes. Kansas City will find some joy downfield and I can’t imagine that the cheetah is locked down for a third straight week. Reid pulls out all the stops here and Kansas City gets a comfortable victory to flex its muscles again.”
CBS Sports NFL Insider Jason La Canfora thinks this is a get-right spot for the Chiefs. Check out his other Week 4 best bets, here.
Giants at Saints
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Saints -8, O/U 43.5
Current: Saints -7, OU 42
“The Saints are finally playing a real home game after having their opener moved to Jacksonville, followed by two straight road games because of hurricane damage. They impressed last week winning at New England, while the Giants haven’t won a game yet. The Saints are great in October, winning 22 of their last 24 in the month. The Saints will have the Superdome rocking as they blow out the Giants.”
Pete Prisco brings up a good point about the kind of home-field advantage Jameis Winston and Co. will have on Sunday. Prisco breaks down every game every week. Check out his Week 4 column, here.
Titans at Jets
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Titans -7.5, O/U 46
Current: Titans -6, O/U 44.5
Before you lock in your Week 4 NFL picks and parlays, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. It went a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks last season, returning more than $800. The model also enters Week 4 of the 2021 season on an incredible 123-81 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates to the 2017 season.
We can tell you the model likes the Titans at -7 (or -6), but you need to head on over to SportsLine to see what other games they want to throw into this special parlay.
Washington at Falcons
Time: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: PICK, O/U 48.5
Current: Washington -1.5, O/U 47.5
SportsLine’s Mike Tierney is all over teasers this season. If you’re unfamiliar, a teaser is a play that involves at least two games with more favorable point spreads than are offered with a traditional bet. Our picks will be limited to two-game, six-point teasers, meaning that a half-dozen points will be tacked on in favor of our chosen team in each game.
We can tell you he likes teasing the Falcons to +7.5. Head on over to SportsLine to see what else he’s suggesting this week.
Cardinals at Rams
Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Rams -6, O/U 53.5
Current: Rams -4, O/U 54.5
“I picked the Buccaneers last week because I thought they had a better chance than any team to go 17-0. The Rams manhandled them. I expect the Cardinals to get more pressure on Matthew Stafford than the Bucs did, but I don’t think Arizona is ready for this level of ball.”
You heard CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones. The Cardinals aren’t ready for the Rams! Check out his other Week 4 best bets, here.
Seahawks at 49ers
Time: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: 49ers -3, O/U 51.5
Current: 49ers -2.5, O/U 52
“Were you surprised to see Green Bay come back late to rip San Francisco’s heart out last week? You shouldn’t have been because the 49ers were home favorites, and the 49ers have been awful as home favorites during the Kyle Shanahan era. Including the playoffs, San Francisco is 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite under Shanahan and 3-12-1 during the regular season. Hell, they don’t even have to be at home, as they’re only 10-19-1 ATS as favorites under Shanahan everywhere. I don’t know why, but it’s hard to argue with the results.
“This week the 49ers are home favorites against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, and guess what? Do you know which QB has gone 27-14-2 ATS as an underdog in his career? That’s right, it’s Wilson. Of course, while those trends are hard to ignore, I’m also on the Seahawks here because they’ve been too good offensively to ignore. They just need to find consistency, and I think they’ll find some against a San Francisco defense that hasn’t done a whole lot to impress me yet.”
Our own Tom Fornelli is riding Russell Wilson and the Seahawks this week! To check out his other best bets for Week 4, click here.
Ravens at Broncos
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Broncos -2.5, O/U 44.5
Current: PICK, O/U 44.5
“Facing the Jags, Jets and Giants is like go-karting against your 8-year-old nephew. Facing Lamar Jackson is like entering the Indianapolis 500, except you don’t have a car and you have to run the race on foot. The cars are just going to whiz by you and I feel like that’s what Jackson is going to do to the Broncos defense on Sunday.
“Every Ravens game this year has been absolutely bonkers and I expect nothing less in this game. In Week 1, they were leading the Raiders 14-0, but lost in overtime. In Week 2, they trailed the Chiefs by double-digits in the fourth quarter, but somehow managed to win. In Week 3, they won on a freaking 66-yard field goal. This week, they’re playing in Denver, which is the one city most kickers love to play in, so I’m guessing Tucker wins it on a field goal, which may or may not be from 67 yards out.”
John Breech thinks the Broncos are in for a culture shock in their first game of the season against a formidable opponent. Check out his other best bets for Week 4, here.
Steelers at Packers
Time: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Packers -7, O/U 47
Current: Packers -6.5, O/U 45.5
“Remember how hot the Steelers started last year and then how they faded at the end of the season? It feels like we are seeing that again — except it’s happening way sooner. Ben Roethlisberger looked old against the Cincinnati Bengals last week. The defense didn’t look good either, as Joe Mixon asserted his will against the Steelers front seven and Ja’Marr Chase ran wild in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers got back on track in the second half of Week 2 against the Detroit Lions, and while the defense let up against the 49ers a bit last week, Rodgers came in and finished the job. The Packers are 2-0 against the spread over the last two weeks and they will improve to 3-0 on Sunday. Too much firepower, and the Packers are at home.”
The Packers -6.5 is one of the #DajaniDimes I dropped in my column this week. Check it out, here.
Buccaneers at Patriots
Time: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Buccaneers -5.5, O/U 49
Current: Buccaneers -7, O/U 49.5
SportsLine’s Micah Roberts worked in the Las Vegas sportsbook industry for more than 20 years, including a 13-year run as Station Casinos’ book director. He has been uncanny with his picks in games involving the Buccaneers. In fact, he is an eye-popping 10-2 in his last 12 against-the-spread picks involving Tampa Bay! For $100 bettors who have taken his advice, the return has added up to almost $800.
We can tell you he’s leaning Under, but to check out his official against the spread pick for the game of the century, head on over to SportsLine.
Raiders at Chargers
Time: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Chargers -3, O/U 53.5
Current: Chargers -3, O/U 51.5
SportsLine expert Mike Tierney is a national sportswriter whose work appears in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times. Tierney has covered the NFL for decades, reported from seven Super Bowls and has used his experience to crush the NFL, going 187-147 against the spread the past three seasons. In addition, Tierney is an incredible 25-13-1 on his last 39 picks involving the Los Angeles Chargers.
We can tell you he’s leaning Over, but you need to check out his against the spread pick for Monday night. Head on over to SportsLine for his analysis.
