It’s hard to believe, but Ohio State only has four regular-season games left on its 2021 college football schedule. That means the Michigan game will be here before you know it, and then hopefully, a postseason that has the College Football Playoff as a part of it.
We’ve been keeping tabs on the analytics that FiveThirtyEight keeps track of when it comes to the Buckeyes’ chances of getting into the CFP, and with every week, those odds continue to change. We can’t pretend to tell you what all goes into the formula for calculating these sort of things, but we’ll trust that whatever algorithms and special sauce ingredients go into making the sausage are on point according to geniuses there.
We’re checking in again and can tell you that Ohio State’s chances of getting into the College Football Playoff are still pretty good after taking care of business against Penn State. But there are other factor involved too. Michigan State beating Michigan, Cincinnati continuing to win, Alabama looking fantastic again, and many more things have the model continuing to change by the week.
So, here’s a look at the eleven teams that have the best chance of making the College Football Playoff as it stands right now, who they play, and what the chances are if each wins out.
11
Michigan Wolverines (7-1)
Oct 2, 2021; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) rushes the quarterback as Wisconsin Badgers offensive lineman Logan Bruss (60) blocks during the third quarter at Camp Randall Stadium. Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – vs. Indiana
11/13 – at Penn State
11/20 – at Maryland
11/27 – vs.Ohio State
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
11 percent
Chances if win out
59 percent
10
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (8-0)
Sept. 30, 2017; Winston-Salem, NC, USA; A closeup view of a Wake Forest Demon Deacons helmet during the game against the Florida State Seminoles at BB&T Field. Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – at North Carolina
11/13 – vs. NC State
11/20 – at Clemson
11/27 – at Boston College
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
14 percent
Chances if win out
94 percent
9
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1)
Sep 25, 2021; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish head coach Brian Kelly instructs players during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Soldier Field. Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – vs. Navy
11/13 – at Virginia
11/20 – vs. Georgia Tech
11/27 – at Stanford
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
14 percent
Chances if win out
34 percent
8
Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1)
Oct 30, 2021; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy looks up at the scoreboard during the fourth quarter against Kansas Jayhawks at Boone Pickens Stadium. Oklahoma State won 55-3. Credit: Brett Rojo-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – at West Virginia
11/13 – vs. TCU
11/20 – at Texas Tech
11/27 – vs. Oklahoma
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
16 percent
Chances if win out
97 percent
7
Michigan State Spartans (8-0)
Sep 3, 2021; Evanston, Illinois, USA; The Michigan State Spartans celebrate their win over the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. The Michigan State Spartans won 38-21. Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – at Purdue
11/13 – vs. Maryland
11/20 – at Ohio State
11/27 – vs. Penn State
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
22 percent
Chances if win out
> 99 percent
6
Oregon Ducks (7-1)
Sep 11, 2021; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Mario Cristobal during the second quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium. Credit: Joseph Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – at Washington
11/13 – vs. Washington State
11/20 – at Utah
11/27 – vs. Oregon State
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
23 percent
Chances if win out
89 percent
5
Ohio State Buckeyes (7-1)
Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) puts his hands on his helmet after a failed 4th down pass to Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Chris Olave (2) against Penn State Nittany Lions during the fourth quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on October 30, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – at Nebraska
11/13 – vs. Purdue
11/20 – vs. Michigan State
11/27 – at Michigan
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
41 percent
Chances if win out
98 percent
4
Cincinnati Bearcats (8-0)
Cincinnati Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell leads the Cincinnati Bearcats onto the field to warm up before the NCAA football game between Cincinnati Bearcats and Murray State Racers on Saturday, Sept. 11, 2021, at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – vs. Tulsa
11/12 – at USF
11/20 – vs. SMU
11/26 – at Eastern Carolina
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
41 percent
Chances if win out
77 percent
3
Oklahoma Sooners (9-0)
Oklahoma’s Caleb Williams (13) lines up for a play during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the TCU Horned Frogs at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Oct. 16, 2021. Credit: USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/13 – at Baylor
11/20 – vs. Iowa State
11/27 – at Oklahoma State
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
50 percent
Chances if win out
> 99 percent
2
Alabama Crimson Tide (7-1)
Oct 9, 2021; College Station, Texas, USA; Alabama linebacker Dallas Turner (15) leaves the field after Texas A&M hit a field goal as time expired at Kyle Field. Texas A&M defeated Alabama 41-38 on a field goal as time expired. Credit: Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – vs. LSU
11/13 – vs. New Mexico State
11/20 – vs. Arkansas
11/27 – at Auburn
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
52 percent
Chances if win out
> 99 percent
1
Georgia Bulldogs (8-0)
Nov 15, 2014; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia mascot UGA IX is shown on the field during their win over the Auburn Tigers at Sanford Stadium. Georgia won 34-7. Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Remaining Schedule
11/6 – vs. Missouri
11/13 – at Tennesee
11/20 – vs. Charleston Southern
11/27 – at Georgia Tech
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
78 percent
Chances if win out
> 99 percent
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