It looked so good early on for me this past week with the picks.
Then I faded. Badly.
After opening 7-2, I finished 9-6, against the spread, which isn’t good enough. That means I went 2-4 down the stretch. When can I finish a week strong?
That 9-6 puts my record ATS at 66-53-3. I went 8-7 straight up to bring my mark to 74-38 for the season. My Best Bets on the Pick-Six Podcast went 3-4, which brings my season mark to 25-26, which certainly isn’t good enough.
Maybe this will be the week when I start and finish well.
Latest Odds:
Indianapolis Colts
-10.5
The Jets will continue to start Mike White, who was outstanding in the upset of the Bengals last week. The Colts aren’t great against the pass, either. But this is a short week for a young team that isn’t used to winning. That matters. The Colts will win it behind a good offensive showing by Carson Wentz.
Pick: Colts 31, Jets 19
Latest Odds:
New Orleans Saints
-6
The Saints will be without Jameis Winston the rest of the way, which means it’s likely Taysom Hill at quarterback. He played well in a start against Atlanta last year. The Falcons didn’t look good last week against Carolina, but they will play better here as the Saints come down a little after beating the Bucs last week.
Pick: Saints 24, Falcons 21
Latest Odds:
Dallas Cowboys
-9.5
The Cowboys should have Dak Prescott back in this one after he sat out last week. The improvement of the Dallas defense is why they beat the Vikings without Prescott. The Broncos have done little on offense the past few weeks, and that’s won’t change here. Cowboys win big with Prescott back.
Pick: Cowboys 28, Broncos 16
Latest Odds:
Carolina Panthers
+3.5
The Patriots are playing consecutive road games outside the division, which can be tough. But they will be able to handle it behind an improving defense that will throw a lot at whoever plays quarterback this week fo Carolina. The Panthers have offensive line issues, which the Pats will exploit.
Pick: Pats 25, Panthers 17
Latest Odds:
Baltimore Ravens
-6
The Vikings are coming off a tough loss, while the Ravens are coming off a bye. The Vikings looked lifeless on offense against the Cowboys and now face a Ravens defense that was shredded last time out. Can Kirk Cousins get it going? I think he does, but Lamar Jackson is even better. The Vikings will hang around.
Pick: Ravens 26, Vikings 23
Latest Odds:
Cincinnati Bengals
-2.5
The battle of Ohio is a big one for both teams. The Bengals lost to the Jets last week, but the Browns are in last place in the division. They can’t afford to fall further behind in the division. Look for the Bengals to bounce back behind a big day from Joe Burrow.
Pick: Bengals 30, Browns 24
Latest Odds:
Jacksonville Jaguars
+14.5
The Bills got off to a slow start against Miami following their bye last week, but that won’t happen here. They are too good to let Jacksonville hang around. The Jaguars are a sloppy, poorly-coached team right now. Buffalo is the exact opposite. Josh Allen lights up the Jaguars.
Pick: Bills 34, Jaguars 16
Latest Odds:
Miami Dolphins
-6.5
This is the dog game of the week. Miami has really struggled, which is a surprise, but the Texans are right there with them, which isn’t. At home, Miami will find a way to end a six-game losing streak behind a solid day by Tua Tagovailoa.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Texans 10
Latest Odds:
New York Giants
+3
The Giants played well on the road at Kansas City, but came up short. The defense really played a solid game and now must deal with Derek Carr and the Raiders offense. That will be a challenge. But it’s one I think they will be up for this week. The Giants, on a short week, will upset the Raiders.
Pick: Giants 23, Raiders 20
Latest Odds:
Philadelphia Eagles
+1.5
The Chargers have lost two straight and Justin Herbert is struggling. It’s time they let him play looser. I think they will here. The Eagles played well last week, but that was against the Lions. The Chargers will get back on track as Herbert plays well.
Pick: Chargers 31, Eagles 27
Latest Odds:
Kansas City Chiefs
-7
(Editor’s note: This pick was made prior to the news that Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 and won’t play) The Chiefs barely escaped against the Giants and now must deal with Aaron Rodgers and a rested Packers team. Kansas City’s defense was a little better against the Giants, but it will be challenged in a big way by Rodgers. The Green Bay defense has played better in recent weeks and will slow down Patrick Mahomes. The Packers will win a tough road game.
Pick: Packers 31, Chiefs 30
Latest Odds:
San Francisco 49ers
PK
If the 49ers are to have any chance to win the division, they need to win this game. They played much better last week on offense with Jimmy Garoppolo, which I think will carry over here. The 49ers run game will have a good day as they limit the Arizona offense. 49ers take it.
Pick: 49ers 27, Cardinals 23
Latest Odds:
Los Angeles Rams
-7.5
This is the best game of the week, but the Titans will now be without Derrick Henry. That will put more pressure on Ryan Tannehill against a good Rams defense that now has Von Miller. The Rams have been explosive on offense and will be here as well. The Rams take it.
Pick: Rams 33, Titans 23
Latest Odds:
Pittsburgh Steelers
-6.5
The Steelers have turned their season around and are playing well. The defense will give Justin Fields all types of problems in this one. They will keep him from running, which will lead to some turnovers and sacks. Ben Roethlisberger will do enough to turn those into points.
Pick: Steelers 26, Bears 13
