And just like that, we’re into the final third of the 2021 NFL season. Twelve weeks have come and gone, with the playoff picture frequently changing in both conferences, though several familiar faces once again top their divisions. But there has been one constant during this wildly unpredictable season, and that would be betting underdogs continuing to cover and win with regularity. We’ve seen 73 underdogs win outright so far, an average of more than six per week while plenty more have covered.
Take a look at some of the top betting data from Week 12 here:
Underdogs went 8-7 last week against the spread, the fourth time in five weeks they’ve posted a winning record. As we’ve said all season, they’re doing a whole lot more than cover (unless it’s Detroit). Another seven dogs won outright last week. Miami and Denver won by 23 and 15 points, respectively, inflating the average margin of victory to 9.1 points per game. We’re up to 73 outright underdog victories through 12 weeks. At this point, there are very few safe bets.
Las Vegas was the heaviest underdog to win outright last week, beating the Cowboys 36-33 on Thanksgiving after closing as 7.5-point underdogs. The Raiders allowed an 11-point second-half lead to evaporate, but two costly penalties on Dallas set up a short game-winning kick for Daniel Carlson in overtime.
Point totals were much closer than in recent weeks. The under still won out, going 8-7. Fifteen teams scored 20 or fewer points this week. There were also six games where neither team topped 21 points, but another four where both exceeded over 25 points.
