That’s two weeks in a row now that we’ve really been back on track. This time, hitting on eight of the top 10 defenses, even though I didn’t see Atlanta and Washington coming. Cam Newton has not only made the Panthers a must-attack offense, but he has basically torpedoed the value of that defense too, constantly putting them in awful positions. But after a long and frustrating season, with many twists and turns, it feels pretty good to have the process leading to results as we head into the playoffs.
As you get into these late weeks of the season, we really need to make sure we’re keeping up on the news and thinking a couple of steps ahead. That can be both with injury news and with looking ahead for matchups. Personally, I think this is the time to have two defenses on your roster. Find the best possible matchup for next week and add them to your bench now for nothing so that you don’t need to compete for them on waivers when everybody sees just how tasty a matchup they have.
As a reminder, make sure to always check the link to my updated rankings as the week goes on. When we get injury news or troubling weather information, I will update the rankings accordingly.
Editor’s Note: Be sure to also read our other Week 15 waiver wire articles for even more in-depth waiver wire analysis on running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, IDP leagues, recommended FAAB waiver wire bids, and players to consider dropping.
Picking The Right Defenses To Pickup and Start
Just a quick recap of my general philosophy and what we discussed at length last year: when choosing a defense, you want to look for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage, and even to a certain extent, preventing points. If a defense allows a stingy yards-per-play number, that’s great and I’ll cite some of those numbers below. However, they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won’t really matter in the long run.
Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can’t continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we’re used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.
Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.
Week 15 Defenses To Start and Stream: Tiered Rankings
Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) – Since every league’s DST scoring is different, projections don’t always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of just a point projection. A zero means “do not start,” then the confidence rises from there. Typically, the top-three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues.
New this year: BOD (Best Overall Defense) Rankings. This is my defensive rankings formula based on the stats that I think are most conducive to fantasy success, which are ones that focus mainly on pressure rate but also on turnover rate since these are metrics that traditionally lead to the most consistent results and are also scheme-dependent, thus highlighting defensive schemes that are more fantasy-friendly. You can see the full updated leaderboard here but the basic formula is:
(Pressure Rate x 2) + (Sacks) + (QB Hurry Rate) + (%Drives ending in a Turnover x 2)
Minus
(% Drives ending in a Score x 2) + (Yards per play)
BOD is designed to tell us who the best fantasy defenses are, but depending on the matchup, they might be ranked differently in a given week. That’s why we have this column where I will be breaking down my rankings for each week and an explanation of why I have the defenses ranked the way I do. The rankings will take into account their BOD ranking, opponent, injuries, weather, etc., but I hope my explanation will help make sense of each ranking.
Before we get started, if you’re looking for Rest of Season Rankings, keep an eye on the GoogleSheet here which I will update every week.
Miami is back from their bye, and I hope you were stashing them. They’ve been the 3rd-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 14.4 points per game. They’ll now face a Jets offense that gained just 256 yards against the Saints, while allowing three sacks. Granted, Zach Wilson didn’t turn the ball over, which is a step in the right direction for him, but Miami has forced 11 turnovers in its last five games and New Orleans has forced five over the same span, so it’s pretty clear which defense is feeling friskier at this point in the season. Given Miami’s recent performance, the fact that they can sniff the playoffs, and the fact that they’ve had two weeks to prepare, I love their chances of stifling this mediocre Jets offense that gives up just over eight points a game to opposing fantasy defenses.
Despite the injuries they’ve had on the defensive side of the ball, Arizona remains a top-five defense for me on the season, which I know might lead to some criticism after watching them allow 30 points on Monday night. They have lost a bit of their pass rush juice with J.J. Watt being injured, but they still get solid pressure on the quarterback and remain one of the stingiest defenses in the league in terms of points scored, ranking 3rd-best in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score. Now they get a Detroit team that is rumored to be putting D’Andre Swift on the IR and might be without Jamaal Williams for another game due to a positive COVID test. The Lions put up 10 points and gained 316 yards against Denver last week, allowing two sacks and turning the ball over twice. Arizona should be able to bring just as much pressure, if not more, and be able to notch a very similar week.
It was a bit of a letdown for Green Bay on Sunday night, but the Packers are tied as the 5th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 9.8 points per game. Baltimore allows the most sacks in the NFL and is allowing the 5th-most point to opposing fantasy defenses, at almost nine points per game, and that’s with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. They lost Lamar to a high ankle sprain in the second quarter on Sunday, so if Jackson is unable to play on Sunday, which seems likely, it leaves Tyler Huntley and the Ravens with few weapons to attack a Green Bay defense that will also likely be getting back star cornerback Jaire Alexander. This Ravens team is too banged up for me to think that they can hang in this game.
Buffalo is not the same defense without Tre White, and their pass rush has seemed to vanish over the last few weeks, but this is still a talented defensive unit, as they showed in the second half of the Bucs game. While they didn’t notch any turnovers in that game, they’re 7th in the NFL in turnover rate and had 7 turnovers in the four games leading up to that, including a stretch of eight games in a row with a forced turnover. They’ll now get a Panthers team that gives up the 3rd-most points to opposing defenses and has turned over the ball three times in EACH of their last two games and has 11 turnovers in their last four games. Without Christian McCaffrey and with either Cam Newton or P.J. Walker under center, this simply isn’t a team with the firepower to really take advantage of the Bills’ lack of Tre White. If Atlanta can finish as a top-five defense against them, so can Buffalo.
The game against Washington was close but don’t put that on a Dallas defense that’s the 4th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 12.7 points per game. They’re 4th in the NFL in turnover rate, 6th in percentage of drives that end in an offensive score, and 3rd in pressure rate. Now they get to face a Giants team that will likely remain without Daniel Jones because why would they really rush him back in a lost season? Saquon Barkley remains talented, but the Giants receiving corps is totally banged up and I’m not sure this offensive line has the talent to stop Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence.
San Francisco is another team that didn’t quite deliver on Sunday, but they are tied as the 9th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 8.5 points per game. They will now face an Atlanta team that gives up the 4th-most points to opposing defenses at just under nine per game. While Atlanta had a solid game against Carolina’s defense this week, a lot of that had to do with Carolina’s offense turning the ball over three times and continuously putting their defense in bad positions. Atlanta had only 318 yards of total offense and gained just five yards per play. They’re not going to get that fortunate against a San Francisco offense that, aside from a poor showing against the Seahawks, has only one turnover in the last four games. Meanwhile, this 49ers’ defense has forced at least two turnovers in five straight games, totaling 11 over that span. Nick Bosa has been playing like a man possessed, and I like the 49ers’ chances of causing some misery for Atlanta.
Tampa Bay had a stiff test against the Bills on Sunday, but even after that, they are still the 8th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 9.2 points per game. They now face a New Orleans offense that has given away eight turnovers in their last four games. Obviously, Alvin Kamara is back, and that changes things for the Saints, but Taysom Hill is not a great passer and the Bucs are 5th in the NFL in turnover rate and 6th in sacks. I just don’t think New Orleans has the offensive weapons to make me question playing this Tampa defense.
Minnesota has taken a step back on defense without Danielle Hunter rushing off the edge, but they still held Pittsburgh to 269 total yards, while registering five sacks and one turnover. Considering the Bears are 31st in the NFL in sacks allowed, I think that bodes well for their chances of getting after the passer here too. Now, Justin Fields is obviously more mobile than Ben Roethlisberger, and the rookie has looked pretty good of late, but he also threw two picks and took two sacks against Green Bay, so it’s not like he’s playing flawless football. I no longer think the Vikings are a slam dunk option here, but I think this is still a good spot for them against a Bears team that gives up the 7th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses.
I know it might be weird to see New England down in Tier 3 since they are the top-ranked DST for me on the season and the best defense in fantasy football over the last six weeks, averaging 16.2 points per game. However, this is a really bad matchup. The Colts simply don’t give up fantasy points to opposing defenses, giving up the 30th-most fantasy points to opposing fantasy defenses. They’re 13th in the NFL with only 16 turnovers on the season and are 4th in the NFL with only 22 sacks allowed in 13 games. They also are 4th in the NFL scoring 28.5 points per game and are 6th in the NFL in average time of possession with their drives averaging just under three minutes. So they control the ball for a while, scoring a lot of points, and don’t give up sacks or turnovers. That makes it tough for a defense to score any points. The Patriots rank this high because they are a really strong defense, but this should be a floor game for them unless they can score a touchdown, which is hard to rely on.
While Cleveland hasn’t met our expectations as a fantasy defense over the course of the season, they are tied as the 5th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 9.8 points per game. A lot of that has to do with ranking 8th in the NFL in sacks, but they’ve also forced eight turnovers in their last three games and 11 in their last five, which is a bit closer to the defense that we saw last year. They now get a Las Vegas offense that is reeling and has fallen from a top-third unit in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses to giving up the 10th-most points, worse than teams like the Broncos and Giants. It’s possible that Darren Waller is back for this one, so I don’t want to put the Browns too high, but I think they have the defensive personnel to knock out a Raiders team that is on the ropes.
This Denver and Cincinnati game features two defenses that have been putting up surprisingly strong numbers despite our expectations of them. Denver has been stronger on the season and is the 11th-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 8.2 points per game. However, Cincinnati isn’t too far behind, ranking 13th over the last six weeks, averaging 7.6 points per game. On the season, Denver is the more giving offense in terms of points allowed to fantasy defenses, but they have switched to a more ball-control offense led by Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams, which has dropped them out of the top-10 in most points allowed to opposing fantasy defenses. Meanwhile, the Bengals are 30th in the NFL in sacks allowed, giving up 41 in 13 games, and now face a Broncos team that is 8th in pressure rate on the season. Even after giving up no turnovers on Sunday, the Bengals have also turned the ball over eight times in their last four games, so I’m going to side with the Denver defense here if I have to choose between the two.
The Texans slide into tier three because they’ve been the better defense between them and Jacksonville and are actually tied with Cincinnati as the 13th-ranked defense over the last six weeks. The Jaguars are also now last in the NFL in points allowed to fantasy defenses and this team seems like it’s quitting on Urban Meyer (and who can blame them). The Jaguars do have some talent on the offensive side of the ball and are 10th-best in the NFL in sacks allowed, but Trevor Lawrence looks like a shell of the player we saw in college, James Robinson barely gets any touches, and this offense has at least two turnovers in four straight games, totaling 10 turnovers over that span. Houston is certainly playable if you’re in a pinch.
There haven’t been many teams hotter than Kansas City of late. The Chiefs now have the 2nd-ranked defense over the last six weeks, averaging 14.8 points per game. They have put up tremendous showings against the Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, and Packers, so I have to keep them near the top-10, even if the matchup is not great. The Chargers are 9th in the NFL in points per game, 16th in sacks allowed, and 10th in turnover rate, so they’re a talented offense but do have some weak points that can be capitalized on; however, they give up the 26th-most points to opposing fantasy defenses, which is, you know, not good if you’re trying to play a defense against them. I expect them to have Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler back, and Justin Herbert is playing some great football, so it’s hard to move Kansas City up too much higher.
The Rams round out tier three as a solid unit against a mercurial offense in Seattle. We know that the Seahawks have the firepower to put up points in bunches, but they’ve also failed to establish any consistency this season. They’re also 29th in the NFL in sacks allowed, which is a problem with Aaron Donald and company coming to town. The big factor in the Rams ranking come game time will be what happens with Jalen Ramsey, who tested positive for COVID and missed Monday night’s game. If he can’t play, it will be much harder for the Rams to cover DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett and may make my faith in the Rams waver.
This is not the week to be messing around with the Jaguars unless you’re in a really deep league. I really like the matchups above from some teams who have been far more consistent on defense, so I’m not going to give in to chasing the matchup with a bad defense.
The Eagles and Colts are two defenses that I have defended at times this season, but much like I mentioned above, I can’t put them ahead of stronger defenses or other solid defenses in far better matchups. I know many people expect Philly to be ranked higher because of Washington’s injuries, but Adam Schefter thinks that Taylor Heinicke will play and Terry McLaurin could easily clear concussion protocol ahead of Sunday. Philly can be added as a bench stash, but keep an eye on the injury report over the next couple of days to see how high the Eagles will climb, if at all.
The Panthers are a team to keep an eye on in Tier 4 because we don’t yet know what is happening with Josh Allen‘s foot injury. The Bills seem confident that he will play, but if he doesn’t and Mitchell Trubisky has to start, it’s obviously a massive downgrade to this entire offense, and the Panthers would move up.
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