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Gary McCullough/Associated Press
The NFL free-agency period draws immediate reaction from media, front-office members and even players. The initial reporting of contracts can be shocking as dollar figures rise. Few successful teams are built through free agency, and therefore partaking as a heavy spender in free agency is often frowned upon.
Smart investments can pay off quickly. But a team such as the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have led the NFL in free-agent spending over the last decade, has wasted most of their money. It’s not that they’ve continued to sign bad players; they have struggled to build a foundation through the draft to help the veterans they’ve signed succeed.
We’ve seen plenty of both good and bad deals through the first few days of the legal tampering period and the opening of free agency. Eight have stood out as especially bad, though. These eight early moves—including trades—are all but guaranteed to be costly mistakes over the next two to three seasons.
Some were bad because of bloated salaries, while others were splurges at non-premium positions. Certain teams missed out on better opportunities because they lacked patience and savvy. We also considered fit and upside for each move.
Starting from No. 8 and working our way to the worst move, let’s break down deals that teams will surely regret.
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Ralph Freso/Associated Press
Bringing back key pieces to an offense that grew in 2021 isn’t a bad idea, but the Arizona Cardinals continued to struggle to negotiate value deals.
Paying James Conner, a mid-tier back at best, and 31-year-old tight end Zach Ertz a combined $17.6 million per year was a mistake. The Cardinals needed to bolster a defense that lost Chandler Jones and retool their offensive line.
The trade market for Ertz was cold last year—likely because of his bloated salary and injury history—before Arizona acquired him. His fit with Kyler Murray is undeniable; Ertz totaled 574 receiving yards and three scores in 11 games. But the Cardinals paid a premium for what’s likely to be the downside of his career.
Replacing Conner in the draft or late in free agency should’ve been a priority. Murray’s presence as a runner enhances the production of the backs he plays with. Allocating $7 million per year to a solid blocker or defensive lineman would’ve been much more advantageous.
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Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press
The Miami Dolphins have spent with prejudice, trying to find value in a free-agent pool full of pitfalls.
Most of their signings were solid, but the one that stood out was Chase Edmonds. Miami inked the former Cardinals backup to a two-year, $12.6 million deal.
While new head coach Mike McDaniel will get the most out of the shifty veteran with his scheme, Edmonds is the definition of a replaceable back. He totaled more than 97 carries for the first time in 2021 and missed five games. Miami could’ve simply retained Duke Johnson for the minimum for a similar impact.
This move will be part of an effort to flush the depth chart of the uninspiring backs McDaniel inherited. Expect Miami to draft at least one back and add another after the draft. Signing Edmonds wasn’t catastrophic, but it was an odd way to use precious salary-cap space in a year with a deep crop of rookies from which to choose.
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Steven Senne/Associated Press
The quarterback market is often oversold and overhyped prior to the opening of free agency, and it happened again with Mitchell Trubisky.
Rumors had Trubisky signing for $10-15 million per year, and he had earned praise as a good reclamation project despite throwing just eight passes for 43 yards with an interception in 2021. So, compared to that salary expectation, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ two-year, $14 million deal wasn’t bad.
Trubisky will likely compete for the starting job with a rookie. The issue with the deal was the timing and downside of acquiring Trubisky instead of a better veteran. Pittsburgh could have waited to see if Matt Ryan or Derek Carr would become available. Or it could have traded a draft pick for Jimmy Garoppolo.
Any of those options would have made the Steelers a playoff contender. Instead, they will hope Trubisky does not hold the offense back like he has throughout his career. Trubisky made more sense as a high-end backup than someone to lead a veteran roster to mediocrity or worse.
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Justin Rex/Associated Press
It’s clear the Houston Texans have a bigger concern at hand with Deshaun Watson, but they have stayed busy with a flurry of signings.
With a roster that should have been easy to upgrade because of a clear lack of talent, the Texans opted to add little outside help. Houston re-signed depth pieces and fringe starters such as receiver Chris Conley, center Justin Britt and defenders Maliek Collins, Christian Kirksey, Desmond King II and Terrence Brooks.
There’s nothing wrong with keeping familiar players for a low price, but there’s no upside with any of these deals. External additions such as Cedric Ogbuehi, A.J. Cann, and M.J. Stewart Jr. also possess limited abilities.
With nine draft picks, including four in the top 80, the Texans could justify stripping down the roster even more and resetting a surprisingly troubling cap situation. Instead, they’re sitting in the middle and hurting their rebuilding effort.
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Jeff Dean/Associated Press
No team affected the market like the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags set the market at several positions with receiver Christian Kirk’s $72 million deal, guard Brandon Scherff’s $49.5 million deal and linebacker Foyesade Oluokun’s $45 million deal. Those contracts secured quality difference-makers even if the values were a little high.
The same can’t be said for the $24 million signing of Zay Jones. The journeyman has little explosiveness, profiling as a possession receiver who does his best work out of the slot. But Jacksonville last year signed Marvin Jones Jr. for $12.5 million as a possession threat, and Kirk is best suited to the slot as well.
Signing Zay Jones likely took receiver off the Jags’ list of needs heading into the draft. But no one will be scared of a corps of Kirk and the Joneses. Their lack of physical upside and WR1 traits is an eyesore.
It’s shocking Jacksonville has committed $108.5 million to these three targets.
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Roger Steinman/Associated Press
The Dallas Cowboys made a bold bet when they opted to keep Michael Gallup over Amari Cooper.
While president Jerry Jones had publicly bemoaned Cooper’s contract, it was strange to hand Gallup an annual salary of $12.5 million since he was less productive than Cooper and is coming off a torn ACL. The Cowboys also allowed receiver Cedrick Wilson to depart for the Dolphins.
Dallas could’ve restructured Cooper’s contract and maintained one of the strongest receiving corps in the NFL with him, Gallup and CeeDee Lamb. Now, it may continue to undermine one of the league’s top offenses as it shops right tackle La’el Collins for more cap savings.
A lack of planning and foresight in prior years led to this moment, and the Cowboys responded poorly.
With the roster turnover, it’s possible their best chance to win a Super Bowl was in 2021. Trading Cooper and re-signing Gallup was supposed to open cap room for a major acquisition such as Von Miller, but Dallas has only hemorrhaged talent. Randy Gregory also left the Cowboys, signing with the Denver Broncos in a last-minute reversal.
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Jeffrey T. Barnes/Associated Press
There’s nothing more frustrating for a fanbase than when a veteran is traded to the perfect landing spot for far too little compensation.
That’s exactly what happened when the New England Patriots moved guard Shaq Mason to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a fifth-round pick. While teams across the league were readily handing out large contracts to free-agent blockers, Mason was reunited with Tom Brady for pennies on the dollar.
Mason is one of the finer young guards in the league. He is a premier pass-blocker, is durable and will turn just 29 in August. Tampa Bay actually upgraded after Alex Cappa departed for the Cincinnati Bengals.
That Brady’s former team essentially gave Mason to Brady’s current team was head-scratching. Bill Belichick rarely does favors or deals quality players for so little. This move will hurt the Patriots significantly because they accepted a mere Day 3 pick for Mason.
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Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
Last week, we dove into the possibility that the Indianapolis Colts would trade Carson Wentz to take advantage of the chance for salary-cap savings. Because of the money owed to Wentz ($28.3 million cap hit, per Spotrac) and his lackluster performance to end the 2021 season, it didn’t seem likely Indianapolis could fetch a meaningful return.
The Washington Commodores were happy to prove us wrong.
Instead of reading the room and offering the Colts pennies for the right to save $15 million in dead cap charges, the Washington Commanders gave general manager Chris Ballard a gift basket of assets. Via Yahoo Sports, Washington swapped 2022 second-round picks with Indianapolis, gave up a 2022 third-round pick and conditional 2023 third-round pick and got a 2022 seventh-rounder. It was an astonishing return for a mediocre quarterback with on- and off-field questions.
Washington may not have had the opportunity to trade for Jimmy Garoppolo because of long-simmering bad blood with San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. But waiting to see whether Baker Mayfield became available, or if it could sign Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota, would have made much more sense.
