Even Galileo would be shocked at how many bet slips are revolving around the Suns as we begin the NBA playoffs. Nearly 30% of all money wagered on championship futures is on Phoenix, who’s also seeing 55.2% of the Western Conference champs handle on BetMGM. If they rise from the ashes of last year’s Finals defeat to avenge themselves with a title, the sportsbooks are going to get burned by everyone who jumped onboard the Suns bandwagon.
The cream of the NBA
After Phoenix started this season 1-3, people began to question whether last year’s success was a fluke. Eighteen consecutive victories quickly laid those queries to rest. Phoenix finished with the best record in the NBA, a dominating 64-18. The eight-game buffer between them and the team with the second-best record, the Memphis Grizzlies, is the largest since the 1999-00 Los Angeles Lakers ended the season 11 games better than the Indiana Pacers. The Lakers went on to win the NBA title.
Phoenix is +260 to win it all, and there’s a lot for bettors to like about them. They have the savviest point guard in the league in Chris Paul, the NBA’s top assist man, a supernova scorer in Devin Booker, a legit big man in Deandre Ayton, a productive bench, and a lock for this year’s coach of the year in Monty Williams. They’re terrifying on both ends of the court and they led the NBA in shooting percentage (48.5%) — something that five of the last nine teams to win a championship have done.
More than a third of all Western Conference champ tickets are on Phoenix, who are currently +105 after opening at +700. Memphis entered the season as a 50-to-1 long shot to make the Finals, and are the second-most popular bet (21.4% of tickets) to win the West at +600. The Nuggets (+1100) and Warriors (+500) round out the top four at 12.5% and 8.6%, respectively.
While it feels like there are only three teams who could represent the West, there are at least five who could come out of the East without raising eyebrows. Philadelphia (+550) is the most popular bet with 18.9% of tickets, followed by the Celtics (+450) at 15.6%, Miami (+450) at 13.7%, and the Bucks (+240) at 13.2%. A Boston appearance in the Finals is BetMGM’s largest liability in the East, but it wouldn’t hurt them nearly as badly as a Suns repeat in the West would.
Brooklyn (+320) has the sixth-most support to win the East at 7.1%, but they’ll first have to play their way out of the play-in tournament. The Nets are an 8.5-point favorite over the Cavs on Tuesday night.
Stats provided by Basketball Reference, teamrankings.com and nba.com.
